139. Sh*tcoins On Bitcoin: Why Bitcoin Maxi's Are In Tears - Transcripts

We're live a functional act, they were a lot for lives a functional. Alright, everybody there negative

Well, we just create the link. So nice. Alright. Nice. Alright

Looks great it'll look great on film. You'll say three people are here. Alright, we got a few people here But it might just be us give it a second. Let's uh,

Did you make an announcement in in L discord?

Allen Bryce in the building Oh Milo looks good camera

Just off-screen just off-screen is cute little cute little doggy cone. I love it. Yeah. All right. Well, welcome everybody This is the live Episode of the alfalfa podcast. We do not have Arman this week. He is once again in Nevada, Guadalupe Gallivanting. Is this the second time in like four days? Is that the deal? Yeah, it's not a bad place Loves Mexico, so you get to deal with me Announcing this thing. So sorry about that But we've got a good episode for you today. We're back in studio

V1 is the studio v1 or v2. I don't even know. Yeah Let's call it 1.1. That way you can feel a little progress. Yeah

I want this. Yeah, this is 1.1. We now have furniture. The walls are still a little barren, but we're we're making progress here So hopefully hopefully next week we have this thing Fully furnished for you guys I've got a lot to talk about today. We got a shit coins on Bitcoin now the new Arthur Hayes dropping We got some meme coin trading alpha trading advice post mortem. Yes a little oh and a little post mortem on the Yeah, yeah last week. We had quite the quite the little up and down there So we're gonna talk about that first though as always we're gonna do our alfalfa round

Kickoff with you Nicholas. What do you got for us? All right, so I did a little homework for you guys

Today, well hold on before you before you do the alfalfa round I think calcium bagel in the chat has has a good point to make he says can we at everyone in the discord? To let him know that we're alive right now. Hey, I just asked if we did that

Uh, apparently we have not done it. Well, I posted but I didn't add Oh Nick Nick Thank you calcium, thank you calcium, but sending good that we have the live chat for moments like this

Thank you calcium, but sending that they're like, you know, you guys are just We appreciate them Okay, so I did a little homework for for us and for everyone here I listened to an interview that Stan Drucken Miller did At USC Business School. He does it about once a year. I listen to that too. It's great

It's great That we were talking about Last year where he yes, so the stock markets going sideways for the next like seven years

I think two years ago is the one where he was like inflation is going the moon Stock mark is gonna tank and he was very right Yeah, so for those who don't know Drucken Miller is probably one of the best macro investors of all time. He Has had a 30% annual return or last 30 years with no down years. That's the most impressive part zero

Yeah, so he wrote down down down down down. He had zero down. It seems. Yeah impossible

He almost had one he said he mentioned he almost had one of a year He was down and he took the summer off and just came back and just like four billion dollars

So anyway, I just got down to the cliff notes the brass tacks of what he's got going on right now. So, um, You know overall he sees no fat pitch meaning no obvious trade He thinks it's one of the hardest, you know years to trade in he quote says I haven't seen this movie before I feel that he says t-bills are a fine place to park your cash right now He's definitely in the hard landing camp Uh, he says we've had and the reason is because we have an 11 year asset bubble and it's been a very broad asset bubble So when you give a bunch of people a bunch of money, they tend to do dumb things with it And so there's been a don't know we haven't seen any of that. Not yet. Well a little cracks But actually it was in any dumb things in his presentation think of any well, he used dogecoin as the perfect example

That was a shiny example that's not even like but actually it was seen any dumb things in his presentation. Yeah

The top 100 so Yeah, it's been a pretty broad asset ball was going on for 10 years and he says, you know When the Fed hikes 500 basis points in one year, it's like I don't know where the bodies are, but there's gonna be bodies so For now, he's short the dollar via gold, euro, Mexican peso, Brazilian Real, and the Aussie dollar. Still long Microsoft and Nvidia. And then in general, sounds like a lot of cash and he's waiting for a hard landing and then he's going to swoop up some risk assets.

I heard he said, I heard he said hard landing is imminent. Did he say that? I didn't hear the word imminent. No. Yeah. But I heard that through the grapevine today. He? Not mine. I don't recall the word imminent.

No, I didn't hear the word imminent.

No, I don't recall the word imminent.

No, but if you overlay, like if you overlay his thesis with, you know, Darius Dales 42 Mac would mention his data a lot. He's kind of showing that like there is maybe some potential right tail risk in the next few months. Like things could go up in the next three, let's call it three to nine months. High probability of like some kind of recession or left tail risk or I'd say that's his modal outcome and beyond there he thinks, you know, maybe in two, three quarters, we'll be changing our mood to bullish, hopefully.

But could be could be 2024, 2024, it's not even going to start to go down for like two

or three quarters. He does say end of end of this year, beginning of next year is kind of like his high probability range for for for recession and risk assets to potentially dump. So anyway, I thought I'd share my notes from from that presentation. I try to scoop up any little bit of video that Druckmiller graces.

I was going to I was going to say I'm proud of you for mentioning the T Bill's thing because that was like an hour in. So I know you I know you listen to the whole thing.

I did my homework. Yeah, I mean, I guess the Cliffs Notes on that is like nobody knows what the hell they're talking about right now. I mean, anybody who's speaking with any sort of high conviction is talking out of their

ass for the most part. Oh, that was one of my favorite quotes that he mentioned in there. He's like he said basically what you just said. He's like, man, there's so many pundits out there saying, like, we see like a soft landing, like, I don't see much pain coming during this downcycle. And he's like, immodestly, the last big downcycle, I made four billion dollars. And I'm saying there's going to be a hard landing.

Yeah, yeah. Where are you? He didn't like that all the bankers, including Jamie Dimon, were being so casual about the current banking crisis. He's like, oh, it's not like 2008. And he's like, well, you none of you predicted 2008. So why are you the people we should be listening to, you know, this time around before it happens?

Yeah, but he made a nice little rack. Nobody ever predicts anything. Like it's something happens and we're all we're always like, oh, wow, didn't see that coming. And then we never learn, keep thinking we're going to predict it, but it ends up being unpredictable. I'm kind of in the hard landing camp, but that it takes like way longer than people think maybe. And then everybody gets kind of lulled into some sort of false sense of complacency.

This is like a really great moment to think of about the future of your investing in like, we talked about this several times, but like a distribution of probabilities, right? Like a bell curve, you know, and when you hear someone say, oh, things are going to get really bad really quickly. You could file down the left tail risk and things are going to stay, you know, according to what you think is going to happen that's in the middle. And then anything says things are going to rip. You can kind of section those and it helps to to parse through and have a framework at least to put all of the pieces you're hearing out there because there's a lot of differing

I think opinions over the next like 12 months. Yeah, I think it's like one third, one third, one third, like almost exactly in terms of the probable outcomes. So I think if you're in crypto, I think it's a good time to be like 30% long or something.

Hold on, hold on one third, one third, one third, meaning wrecked nuke, pump and sideways. What do you mean by one?

Basically like what do you mean by one? Basically like infuriating long sideways chop, left tail nuke or melt up. Like I think all of those things are relatively equal probabilities over the next quarter or two. And you could kind of be prepared for all of them. And if drunken Miller doesn't know what the hell is going to happen, then like I certainly don't and you certainly don't unless you are some sort of, I don't know, investing God,

which you probably are not. When he said that there are no fat pitches, I was like, Oh, thank God. Because I'm like looking around. I'm like, what? Okay, like Mara short looks pretty good to me. Like, you know, I have very few high conviction bets out there right now to make, you know, I'm just short term T bills. I'll just say that's probably really high conviction. And those pretty high conviction.

Yeah, they seem pretty good conviction.

Those pretty high conviction. Yeah. Cool. We're gonna talk about that a little bit more, I think, because we're gonna go over the Arthur Hayes article, The denominator a little bit later and I think that ties into this. First, quick one for me. I would like to tell everybody that I did in fact get liquidated on my punk by. I took about yeah 48 hours happened on Saturday while I was Stuck in a pickleball tournament. Wait, hold on a new punk. Bye. Wait, hold on. Oh, he wasn't here. Oh weren't here Yeah, I bought a punk on like 10x leverage using a blurs new no way

Yeah, I bought a punk with like four eath down. What hero is your percent interest love? Oh, no way

What hold on? I didn't even know you could do this. I'm I know we're a podcast where you're gonna find all the little tidbits

Wow. Wow, you're such a DJ. Yeah. Yeah, we were all sitting here

Like you're going to get liquidated and I was like, yes, I know he was like donating it to our learning our cumulative learning

That's good. Yeah, I did it for the for the memes guys. You're welcome. So yeah leverages is dangerous leverage on NFTs Turns out is even more dangerous So I think it's a that'll be a little preview of I think what we have to look forward to in the next bull run

When yeah leverages is Alan in the chat says you bought the idea of a punk?

So what punks are down huh punks are all NFTs are down punks are down is that I mean catch me up here

What happened to punks? So well, I mean punks have nuked fairly hard. They were trading at a really nice steady 60th floor for a while. It looked like one of those that kind of fake Bitcoin 2018 bottoms where it was like sure did. Yeah. Yeah, like look at this nice Support right there. Yeah, and then yeah I feel like I want to blame blur because once they sort of incorporated wrapped crypto punks and did all the incentives on it Like the floor seems to just just absolutely fall out there. I think we fell into the low 40s really briefly

Yeah, we talked about how like trading volume has gone up

But the number of unique users actually using NFTs is steadily just declining. There's some attrition

Yeah, well volume will go up if you're just giving people Free money to free tokens. Yeah, yeah, basically so a little bit of a weird Dynamic going on right now. I don't know I think we just didn't have a lot of price discovery in the punks market before like I feel like the whole punks market Was controlled by like one guy Punk's OTC Right. So the floor is probably whatever he says the floor

Is that who you used to buy your first

By a punk from punks OTC He was he was very nice to do business with so so thank you, sir. Shout out But yeah, it looks like we're getting some real real price discovery now

And the discoveries in a downward direction does does punks OTC also like hold his own bag. I'm sure he probably does Yeah, he's a market maker. So he's got to have punks liquidity essentially

But he's got a he's got a fat staff sure he's a fan. I'm sure he's a fan I like to think he is yeah, or she not just a making money. It's probably like a 15 person Like Jared from Subway

Are you familiar? Yeah, or she not just a making money

Jared from Subway. I've just seen him on the Twitter sphere, but I don't I'm not familiar with what he's done. Oh my god

It's an MEV boss Jared from subway dot eth is this MEV account that is currently me It's been making over a million dollars a day for like what couple weeks straight Just sandwich attacking all of the meme coin by how and the name is hilarious Absolutely. Love it. Wait. Yeah, that's incredible name

Yeah, that's incredible name. So for him to make any money. He has to just like he profits off of People trying to trade shit coins and then he scalps like a little bit in front of him

Yeah, so perfect example when I was trading those stupid AI coins from like a month ago that had the tax on him Oh god, you had to set your slippage You put your language to 15% or something to make it so I set my slippage to 8% and forgot about it And then I made like a like a ten thousand dollar buy on a coin Without checking my slippage and then that just like I just lit Jared's $100 on fire capturing that poof like Yeah, he just I for sure a thousand percent good sandwich. I didn't want to look at it I knew in retrospect I definitely get sandwich But people are doing that just over and over and over and over again because they don't You can either use the flashbots RPC To get around that or I think like cow swap is an interesting tool and I even think one inch has some protection the connection integrated into it now how I'm so Just the way they I don't know there's some way they do like if you use one inch now

There's a fusion swap. I think it's called change. You had to set your slippage You put your slippage to 15% or something Jared $200 on fund protection

They'll change your order for you like you can do better than this. Yeah, I mean I still think yeah I mean, I still think they're sketchy motherfuckers They were keeping like the reverse slippage before and that maybe they still are like if the price went in your favor

Like they wouldn't give you that price. They would just keep it. Yeah Yeah, I thought it had something to do with not having your transactions public in the mempool is what I thought those like

Sam, you know like MEV savers do but yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway That's my story. Let's uh, oh It calcium's got a question here is the Jared bot just paying more gas than others. Why aren't other bots getting the same gains? It's a lot more complicated Again, not hashtag not an MEV expert, but it's a lot more complicated than simply just mashing the gas button and like sandwiching somebody There's a whole Science that goes into it, which I I am NOT Qualified to talk about but I do know it's it's it's it's complicated

I mean calcium um, I mean calcium um, I'm as surprised as you are because you would think like something like this would be just You know if the market is efficient just would be profited to zero at some point Another note, I know there are bots that try to MEV off the the sandwich

Attackers. Yeah, there's the bait the bait bots like we said we saw that events a few weeks ago or somebody did some like validator level attack and like For like double signed a blog or I don't know. There's a way over my head But they basically took like 24 million dollars in one bot and then I think they got slash like 8th or something

I just heard Armand. I just heard Armand's voice in the back of my head being like this

Armand's not here today. So we can think what happened when you think what happened when you Um, when you were looking into doing some MEV of your on your own

Okay, what happened there? Like I mean, oh, yeah. Yeah, you went through a phase. Yeah, you can go searcher phase You go to the flashbox discord. You can learn quite a bit. And uh, It seems like if there is any edge It's maybe not necessarily and on mainnet could be on some of these like side chains or or l2s where there's Some profits to be had maybe these other l1s as well and you kind of have to pick out pick out a niche But I was trying to fast forward this You know one years two years three years and it just seemed like uh based on aetherium's roadmap Based on that. There was already a lot of Market actors at at play that there would be some

You know like perfect competition. Yeah, you can go searcher phase

You thought it was going to be more efficient than it than it has proven itself to be right jared

Might have started blew it away. Yeah, jared started blew it away. Yeah. Yeah So that's why i'm shocked that like wow, this guy's finding that much alpha Yeah, it's in in the most basic type of mev And making it work at at scale and and maybe it's just the short time period where You know, there's a lot of maybe newer users trading shit coins or maybe not newer users But uh novice users trading shit coins and just uh

Yeah, leaving some I got a plot question in in in the most basic. I got a plot question. Does uh, does like the introduction of new l2s or like more volume l2s

Decrease the mev that's available or does it actually just um, it's my understanding that the sequencer like optimism themselves

Is the way you're talking about the way you're talking about mev on

L2 or mev on l1. I mean mev broadly because you can

So you can't capture it. Well nick's correct that and i'm 95 percent sure this is correct But I think on these l2s like arbitrum where the sequencer is completely they capture the lives

They have the ability I think to capture so that's they capture

So that's yeah, and even coinbase has said on base. They they will not try to profit

From the mev and that sounds sequencing. I agree. But it's sequencing. I agree But it's it's an interesting philosophical debate, right? Because you think about it like imagine you're on an l2 that's just squeezing all the mev out and putting it in their pocket like You might as a user start gravitating towards a different l2 or you might demand that that is at like shared with token holders In some sort of way and there's there's a lot of There's a lot of things that have been thrown around at like how what the best approach is to actually handle this

Yeah, I think yeah, I think from coinbase standpoint It's more of an optics thing like they don't want elizabeth warren finding out that they're essentially doing like a payment for order flow

And they're profiting from it You've seen a lot of the operations shut down from what i've heard and I think it's because There are worries that this is like front running Right, and if you are based in the in based in the us and you're some market maker and maybe you're doing this as like some Side operation, you know your lawyer starts talking in your ear. It's like you you could shut this down immediately Um, so yeah, I think that's another Another thing to look out for I don't know if we have a hard and fast answer on this yet But that seems to be the consensus i'm hearing is that this is like kind of like it's like front running

Well, speaking of and if you are

Based on it. Well speaking of as we move into the next topic because they're gonna be any type of mev and on uh,

Bitcoin now that there's actual transactions happening on there. Uh, I don't I I don't think that's the thing. Yeah, I don't think it is either. I don't know. Um, yeah, let's talk about that the uh, the brc BRC 20s

Super creative name. God. Why do they do that? Yeah, I don't think it is either god Why do they do that? It's confusing because when you look into what it actually is, it makes no right

It's not like a comparison not even close. Yeah, so so so bitcoin has launched, uh tokens Not launched by like not that there is a bitcoin organization, but somebody developed this like token standard. Um on bitcoin BRC 20 it uses ordinals, which I think we've talked about a little bit um ordinals was an interesting project basically allowed you to Sort of like inscribe things on individual satoshis and that sort of led to nfts on bitcoin Which has been clogging up the network and now we've used ordinals to basically create shit coins on bitcoin And now the network is really clogged, which is another thing we could talk about in a bit Um, I don't know if you guys looked into these much. Do you have any uh reactions early thoughts on them?

I mean, uh a few interesting things like the for miners the actual transaction fee miners are loving this Yeah, they're loving it reward Uh, I don't know if it was for one block or a sequence of blocks, but it was greater than the issuance reward So that's the whole this

Statue of miners are loving this. Yeah, they're loving it

So that's the whole this was the security hang up that everybody had on bitcoin the network

Yeah, but now it's unusable. There's something like 400,000 transactions in q and I don't know what you want to call these people like bitcoin maxi altruists like like theologians, they are not happy that people are using this permissionless blockchain

in a way that they don't approve, because they're trying to save the world like eth

style shit, this is shit coin shit, right? And exactly. And they're getting in the way of them saving saving the world and slowing down their progress for whatever they have

the old trilemma strikes again. Yep. Yeah, well, let's, let's talk about the philosophical stuff in a second, I think, because that's super interesting. There's some like sort of nuances of how this is like created, I guess what is actually happening here is you're inscribing some JSON data, you know, via ordinals, and there's sort of like three functions, there's like a min to transfer and can't remember what the other one is, but those functions are sort of manually inscribed, it just makes for this really weird, clunky experience reminds me of like, when you're trying to sell your wool pouch on OpenSea, and you're selling like a pouch of wool with like 100,000 coins in it or something. Yeah, there's no smart contracts, the decks you have to use to trade them isn't it's not a deck, actually, it's an exchange. And you got to have like a minimum of 20, like transactions in your wallet of BRC 20 is or buy some NFT. I mean, the whole thing to me seems so weird. It's like we did all this like evolution of things on Ethereum, and then we just like we'd like step back

in time. Yeah, yeah, it's incredibly inefficient. Like I think that the biggest thing takeaway I got from how these things are structured is, and I think it was Chainlink God who had a post about it, and he made this like, correlation, it's like, you need to mint a new ERC 721

and NFT anytime there is a purchase or transfer of these BRC 20s. Yeah, you mint like a transfer

NFT. It's very convoluted and weird. Right. So it's not surprising that the queue is is backed up. Yeah, I mean, we'll see what happens. I did I did notice in Benjamin Collins, one of his premium videos, he shows there's three and three or two previous spikes of transaction volumes and they typically precede a sell off. So may not be correlated at all. But

it's an interesting little tidbit that I pulled from his video recently. Yeah, I mean, unsurprisingly, this feature has been used just for absolute, like the worst kind of shit coinery. I think it's really fun. I think you can only use four letters. And so like, it's a popular

coin called pizza, but yeah, piz or something. Yeah, piz or something. Yeah, what else have

you seen on there? Like, because this really reminds you like everybody just clones like there's BRC Pepe, right? Just like we had like Bitcoin punks and they just like clone the same stuff like we had like sort of like, but with more steps. Yeah, but like worse. It's, it's kind of sad. You know, it just feels kind of sad. I feel like I kind of feel for the Bitcoiners in a way. Have you ever seen that meme where it's like, I like kind of God looking down like disapprovingly and just like, you know, God watching me boo. That's like, like what I imagined. It's like Satoshi watching me, you know, Yolo 20 K into pizza on Bitcoin. It's just, we've just fallen so far. But yeah, the Bitcoiners are the, the Orthodox Bitcoiners are not happy with this watching me.

but also I see why it's stupid. Like you trying to have your cake and I mean, does this little spike in transactions, no matter how meaningless and stupid the transactions are, give you

any hope towards like Bitcoin's future, like security dilemma? Not really, not really, because it all it's telling me right now is like that the future of like the thing that

is demand is in demand is gambling. It's not money. Yeah, but that's where, but that's where you could say like, that's where ETH started, you know, like ICOs and random tokens.

And so that's where it started. That's where it still is. Right. Like it's basically still

just a really great casino. So I think that it does give me hope, you know, like, cause I've never seen a future for Bitcoin. I've never seen, I've never seen Bitcoin with a future beyond issuance. And that, that like was giving me fear, like even 14 years in

the future, for instance, like I was nervous. Right. So I don't know. I think they could evolve like once this kind of like settles down, maybe they get their shit together.

But this seems like a two warring factions that necessarily can't get on a roadmap. Yeah. I mean, but like, was there just going to be magical demand dropping out of the sky

to use Bitcoin as money all of a sudden? Or you could see the exact opposite effect, which is I think how press was showing on Twitter, like in some of the Bitcoin forums or whatever that there's proponents saying we should censor these transactions, which

like is mind boggling that, that, uh, I mean, I kind of get it because what it's, what's happening is Bitcoin is just turning into like a worse version of E. Right. Like if it becomes a casino, but it's just like a shittier casino. So what's the, what's the

answer? What's the answer for Bitcoin? Modular block chance for Bitcoin. Modular blockchain.

Like is that, but not permissionless. So, so one thing that's been interesting for me personally is, um, I remember in 2017, I was very, I was very into Bitcoin and I was very into the whole Bitcoin cash fiasco. Um, and I was just so against Bitcoin cash at the time and I was like, this is such a scam, blah, blah, blah, blah. I mean, I was just basically just ingesting and vibing all of the dogma, just like unquestioningly. And I didn't know a lot about crypto back then or any of this stuff. So, um, but I've really started to question that whole big block thing in retrospect, like in retrospect, like I don't know, was it worth it to keep the block small so that you could run Bitcoin on like a thumb drive? Was that that really important? Like, because it seemed to me like, as soon as that there was a time where people were sending Bitcoin back and forth and then those fees just choked all that out. It spawned all these other coins and then stable coin, all the stuff where you could just kind of transmit value in a way that the market decided was better. You know, like people were using, like people were using like Dogecoin to send money to and from exchanges at the time because it was, it was a joke. It was taking like two hours and like $200 to withdraw money via Bitcoin to your wallet. And people were like, what the hell?

Like what does it cost actually to run a Bitcoin miner that will actually like theoretically be profitable these days? Like you got to pay like $4,000. I think there might be more and more in

that. I think there might be more and more and more in that. Well, mining is a different thing.

And it just, it just depends on what your electricity cost is. But you're upfront for

the equipment. There's only a few suppliers. I mean, you need like a specific type of equipment to even like win the race, right? You can't have shitty hardware rigs. No.

Yeah. For sure. But like the heart of the battle in terms of the block size was more about like

running a node. The idea is that like the larger the block size. Having the full chain.

Yeah. Like the more like resource intensive it is to run a node and then like, oh, we don't want to squeeze anybody out from being able to run a node at home. And I don't know, like Ethereum is orders of magnitude more data than Bitcoin. And there is a whole nuanced debate about Ethereum has like full nodes. There's different types of nodes. And should we have all, so I don't want to get into that right now. It's not quite that simple, but like it seems to be working just fine. And when I look at Bitcoin, I see a blockchain that yeah, sure. Like it was the fees went down, but like nobody was using it to do the thing it was intended for. And, and now it's getting usage and it's congested. And it's like, it's like a hundred bucks again to do any sort of, and

people are freaking out because the box sizes. Well, so like, well, so like the Bitcoin's investment thesis is at best like a store of value, a proof of work store of value. So who cares if the transactions get congested? That's what we think it is, right? I agree with you.

That's not what Bitcoiners think. That's what we think it is. That's what institutions, that's not what Bitcoiners think it is.

So fuck them, because I don't know their tournaments. Hold on. Hold on. That's the prevailing narrative. I think like you have the, you have the orthodox, is that what you call them? The orthodox, uh, believe that Bitcoin is the future of all things that are related to money. But I think like the sort of like the knowledgeable layperson things of Bitcoin as a decentralized proof of work store of value. I think that's true.

I think that's the mainstream big money thinking around it. And so it could still hold that thesis. I was trying to think, OK, is all this issues that they're having with the chain being so congested going to take away from what big money thinks the investment thesis is for Bitcoin? I don't necessarily think so. They kind of pair it with digital gold. And gold is no easier to move around and transfer. So if it can hold harder. Yeah. So if it could still hold its

investment thesis, I guess. Yeah. And look, I think Bitcoin is investable as a scarce, hard asset. But I don't think it's investable as money. And if it's never anything more than basically a digital gold, then it's not going to be the largest currency for never mind forever, probably not even for the next two or three years. That'll probably go away. And it will accomplish way less grandiose things than its proponents. Really, really believe it's purported to do. It's sort of the whole reason for its existence.

So I don't know. It's a tough spot. I don't know. It's a tough spot. Last time I looked at it, because I haven't really cared about Bitcoin in a long time. But the last time I looked at it, I remember thinking if it just achieves this gold type narrative, I think reaching the market cap of gold would be an equivalent of like 250K per Bitcoin-ish. Sure. I mean, that's

not a bad return from here. Yeah. Yeah. It's fine, but it's not the vision. Yeah, for sure.

It's fine. Yeah, for sure. It's fine. Yeah. Throw that in the trash. But I think the vision is

fucking stupid. Yeah. Throw that in the trash. But it seems like a noble vision. I think some elements of it are naive or unrealistic. I think there's been like, I don't know, the Bitcoin community has really chased out heterodox thinkers. So you've really got this groupthink echo chamber thing going on there that we see in a lot of areas of the world that we talk about. And it's very in the Bitcoin community, I think, like the cyber hornets, like, I don't think that it's supposed to be like a bug feature, not a bug. But like, in reality, I, you know, it's, whenever you just chase dissent out of your community, like, eventually, over time, you just end up with this, like, really shitty, ossified, like, basic theology with, like, these priests who preach something. And then these like blind followers who just follow you, no matter what you say, nothing gets challenged. And then over time, like, you just sort of lose your way and things

fall apart. But on the bright side, like, to that, like, go back to Druckenmiller, maybe in the last USC presentation, when he was talking about his investment in Bitcoin, he said he was talking to Paul Tudor Jones. And Paul Tudor Jones was like, dude, this thing is down at 3k. They have these acolytes that will never sell it. Like, what you're describing is true. But like, when you get to that point, when there's just like this theology that of people that just believe with their head in the ground, you know, that sets a floor for the price. And, you know, if you can buy the floor, it doesn't

even matter what you believe in the future. Paul Tudor Jones liked that there was like a cult like following that held it no matter how much it went down. And he liked that in times where we see the monetary base expanding. It was the he called it the fastest horse. And I could I could think you make an argument that it is is better at both of those in the future? Or like looking out five

years. Yeah, I think they? Yeah, I think they can both win. But maybe each wins the race between the

two of them. Yeah, maybe. Paul Tudor Jones has heard about it. He knows a few things about it. He's read a few things about it. But he's not ready to deploy his bags yet. But he might be when

he sees that juicy yield. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I don't think Bitcoin is going away. I just think it's going to be sort of relegated to the corner as this gold type asset. Well, I don't know, I think it'll be ETH, but I'm not married to the idea that it's ETH. There'll be some more innovative cryptocurrency. It's like what we talked about with Kevin Kelly last week, where he's just like, don't talk to me about money in crypto. I want to hear about what's interesting about it. And that's bad for Bitcoin, because the only thing it's trying to be is money. That's the only thing it wants to be, it's the only thing it really can do, well. So if it if it doesn't do that one thing, then the backup plan will say, yeah, it's to be kind of gold, and that's just not super interesting. It's kind of interesting....

Yeah, I got to reserve my takes on that, because we're gonna talk about it in the next episode. But how about Arther? Yeah, let's get into that. okay so Arther... Just go conclusion first. He

he is a huge proponent of Bitcoin and gold. I think his last sentence is like,

buy your Bitcoin and get the fuck out. Yeah, and I think before we get into his full spiel, we just talked about why Bitcoin will lose the race to ETH. Like, how come Arthur has enough knowledge? Like, he's not Paul Tudor Jones. Like, Arthur has enough knowledge. Why is he only looking at Bitcoin? Right, maybe- He's not only looking at Bitcoin.

No, I- He owns- Right, maybe- He owns GMX. Yeah. Yeah, he owns ETH. Like, he's not a-

He's not a Mac. Yeah, I think in these like, Contra dollar discussions, like, what should I bet against a dollar he's using? Bitcoin is like, maybe the most easily understood, easily communicable asset, digital asset- This is the one that won't give me- As a proxy for like- As much pushback as the rest. Right. Like, maybe TradFi people will like, okay, I get it. Except this one. Yeah, and then- Otherwise, it's shit coins. It's the gateway drug.

Yeah. You know? It was for me, yeah. You know? It was for me. It's an interesting thesis. I mean, I guess first, let's just take a step back

and just 10,000 foot- Wait, are you gonna get- His article? We gonna get before you get in the thesis? What? The first three paragraphs of his article, he talks about-

Yeah. The denominator of going to a club- I was going to getting into that in my summary. Okay, get into it. Because I was like, of his article he talks about the denominator of going to a club and buying models. OK, get into it. Because I was like, oh my God, you just ran back my mid 20s, late 20s.

I was going to get into that in my summary. I get into it because I was relations to D. The was a great analogy.

The denominator was always a difficult scenario in.

I think my credit card set the denominator on it after I like basically read through its scenarios. I was like, oh my God.

I saw the rules and I was like, wow, this is the real alpha in here. I wish I knew this when I was 24. Yeah, the rules are legit. But yeah, so he just wrote a he wrote a piece called The Denominator and he just opens the piece with this like sort of allegory to going to the club with your buddies. And then like

that shouldn't force rules.

Yeah, the rules are one guy shows a blade and then maybe he has one drink or some some idiot order champagne at the end of the night. And then like, ultimately, you're left with this gigantic bill and then you have you divide it, you know, the bottom part of the fraction, the denominator. How many people are you dividing the bill by? Who are the bag holders? Yeah,

who's the bag holder? Who gets included? Below the line or the bag holders? Okay, the one the one thing the one of those rules that that I did be hardcore on except one time

was if you buy champagne, that's your bill, your personal, your personal. That was the only one of the rules we like actually put in, because we had a guy who I will not name on this podcast, but if he's listening, he knows who he is. But that was the same thing like very into the night, some girls who gravitate towards the table and be like, I'm gonna be a baller. I'm gonna order like a I'm gonna order a champagne show with fireworks and And it's like $3,000 on your bill and then and then if you drank like a glass to try to be like hey Yeah, you had a glass Absolutely. Not I'm not paying you Yeah, you get to stand there up on the thing and wave your arms and then you socialize all of the no Steven Wasn't you it was not me. I was I was notorious in the group for like Never okay and champagne. I was like, this is the most inefficient

Stupid waste of money I've ever pull up to great. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on Center for the club her body was like a prolific champagne guy

Center for the club

No, no, I Nick was a bit of a spuer in his day. Yeah, maybe he spewed a bit

Yeah, I've had it both both sides of situation. I remember there was like a business meeting guys traveling from from Israel in town

I was like, alright, both sides of the situation. Oh you do it for the Israeli? Well, we were doing a lot of Girls

So we we go we go there and It's just me and him. That's it. We're at a club hanging out and I'm like, I'm gonna go to the bathroom real quick. I'll be right back. I come back. There's three PJ rosé bottles up in the air. I'm like, oh wonder who what idiot order that shit It's at our table and I'm like, what did you do?

Well, and I'm like shout out shout out to me dog

Yeah, I said I said, what'd you do? He's like, well, I asked the waitress. What's the nicest champagne?

We should get and she recommended this one. I'm like, it's like twenty two thousand thousand dollars a bottle never take Recommendations

He's like but I'm in love

Asking your realtor like how big of a house you should Yeah, anyway, anyway, yeah, so he opens this article with this analogy and it's sort of like a It's a parallel to what's happening in the banking system today and then at a 10,000 foot view again the idea is that we have sort of created this divide between too big to fail and the rest when it comes to banks and We have basically set forth a a bank run like I saw a bank walk, I guess as Jim Bianco has called it Where we're sort of just it seems like inevitable that all the money is going to fly out of these banks and this is this has been exacerbated by the fact that a bunch of short sellers have sort of anyway, I just Realized that like basically the government has made depositors whole and told all bondholders equity holders to absolutely go go fuck themselves Like and zero them out. There's euros. Yeah. Yeah, and you know first first public and

signature

I think that's the risk you take when you invest in equity. I sort of agree with this but then when you create this other dynamic where you allow JP Morgan to just Come in and just you know, look at the dead body on the ground and just I'm just gonna take the wallet and just kind of

Walk away. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's the risk you take when you invest in I You give them that privilege

Yeah, why a why would any of these banks do anything proactively to acquire?

Do they're just gonna sit back and let them explode to the point where to the point where they recognize a two billion dollar profit?

Immediately made free take billion immediate immediately made free take billion dollars. Yeah system is so messed up

So ridiculous, it's such an easy play from Jamie diamonds. No, I don't want it. No, I don't want it No, I don't want. Oh, you need me to buy it. No, I still don't want it fine. We'll give you money to buy it Okay, fine. Like it's he makes an argument that it's basically a nationalized bank except it's a it's a private entity and It does kind of when he explains it. It does feel kind of like a pseudo nationalized

Situation there. Hmm. Yeah. I mean the other problem here is why would you be an equity holder? Why would you hold stock of any of these regional not too big to fill banks? Yeah The bottle has got wiped as well. So yeah, why would you hold? Yeah anything so this creates its own self-fulfilling prophecy cuz as everybody dumps

Yeah, the bottle got wiped as well so

yeah, why would you hold the stock and the equity on the books kind of goes down then got so it's a sort of

I was thinking about this too because my initial instinct, even when Silicon Valley and Silvergate were going through this, I was like, okay, I'll just short every regional bank. I think there's going to be a ton of pain for shorts who come in, let's say now, and they say like, oh, well, here's an easy trade, I'll just short all the regional banks. I think you're going to get fucking smacked on the short side in the interim before they go to zero if they do. This shit is not that easy.

That seems like almost too obvious of a trade in that smart money's been there.

I think that's the point, like Arthur makes it seem easy, like, oh, these are all just going to zero.

Well, that's going to be a hard hold if you... Yeah.

So I think you can, as we continue in his thesis. He's not advocating to short the banks as the play, which I would agree is like a dangerous game to play.

Well, I mean, he does call all of their equity and debt going to zero, so I don't know if he calls the short explicitly, but he basically says this is what's going to happen.

Well, he says buy Bitcoin. His thesis... Is always the... The answer is always buy Bitcoin. His thesis. But yeah, the idea is that if you're... The government is clearly not letting the depositors lose money. There's no free lunch here, right? There's a bill, the bills come and do who's paying the bill? Who is splitting the bill? Who, the old taxpayer, the old taxpayer, yes. Um, you know, in the form of us just printing the money out of thin air,

inflation, plus, the old taxpayer. The old taxpayer.

Inflation, plus tax hikes down the road. Yeah. That's the one I'm nervous about the most actually.

Well, I mean, well, I mean, you sort of have to, how do you not?

Yeah. I mean, you can grow your way out of it. You can hike taxes.

Let's choke off growth. What do you think? Do you like this as an investible thesis for

Bitcoin? Okay. So what I heard was either they're going to print more money or they're going to decrease interest rates so that this disparity between... Those are the two options.

Yeah. Two options at play. Because decreasing interest rates makes the sort of liabilities portion of the balance sheet more palatable. If rates keep going up, the equity in the banks in the form of like loans they have on the books, or excuse me, bonds, keeps going down, which is not good. So if you're cutting rates, you're raising the value of those assets back up

again. So those are your two choices there. Yeah. But isn't there like some middle play here because he makes the case that letting JP Morgan buy First Republic was a more politically acceptable path. So Jerome Powell, he has two mandates, unemployment and inflation. Unemployment is a little secular low is like what, 3.6% ish forecasting 4.5% by the end of the year. We may not even get there, but inflation is still twice above his target. So he has room to raise rates more if he wants to. He can keep them flat for a long time. I don't see the option of going down and he's saying print money, but through this emergency lending program we've talked about, it's not necessarily like creating unencumbered money and they found a politically acceptable path to like absorbing these bank fillings.

I don't want to revisit that because I know it's not unencumbered money printing, but

you see that risk assets have rallied in conjunction with the printing. So like, does it even matter? Which risk assets? Because like Bitcoin, gold, sure. Tech stocks, I don't think that was like a risk rally. I think that was like a flight to cash flowing companies.

Oh, yeah, well I guess in Stonks, uh, it was interesting because like, S&P has gone up, but it's been in... We're still range-bound. But it's only been, there's... There's 5 companies. Yeah, there's no breath. It's been in 5 companies. The 5 largest have rallied and like, the Russell

2000 is down. We're still range bound. But it's only being, no breath. It's been in 5 companies... So you could call that dispersion more of a flight to safety than, yeah, than like race on.

Yeah. Yeah.

Then like race on. So I don't know. I get what he's saying. I do think in the end, those are the two. Those are the two routes, right? Like I think they will print more money and they will lower interest rates in the in the future. But that is not the like fork in the road that Jerome Powell faces at this exact moment. And that fork may not come for six months, 12 months down the road, depending on how resilient we find the economy is. And so do I want to buy Bitcoin or do you want to buy crypto? Yes. Do you want to buy it now? Mean, not so much.

So I mean, this reminds me of I was having a convo in the discord with was it CP Ledger? I think that's his his handle. I wanted to buy Bitcoin because banks were failing.

Big doomer about Bitcoin because banks were failing. Big doomer, by the way. I'm a big fan of his takes. Big doomer.

And although I don't necessarily agree with the take that when like banks all die, like you buy Bitcoin, you know, like I do actually agree that there's some sort of in between soft crash middle ground where the banks like slowly burn the death. But there's not a crash. And they're sort of just like subsumed into the huge banks. And then behind the scenes, there's this process going on, because as you said, the Fed can't cut rates because it's politically unpalatable because inflation. And then we also can't directly bail out the regional banks because bank bailouts are also politically unpalatable. So what like we're squeezing the balloon, what's happening is this the air is going to this weird kind of corner where like it would just keep like obfuscating what's happening and where all the money is eventually going. And this like weird situation where these things sort of just get killed and kind of absorbed by the huge banks and the taxpayer ultimately in a way that's like kind of, you know, four notches down the road from what you perceive is like actually like bailing them out in a way that it's not like immediately apparent and like painful to you. That's kind of what's happening. And I actually can make a case for buying Bitcoin in that particular environment. But but it's not just Bitcoin. It's just just any hard asset really is going to do well. And like I think Arthur in the article said that the he's saying that the potential is for like seven point seven trillion.

Yeah, like all the banks fail of every single asset, all of the liabilities of all the regional banks.

Come on. I have something I can't square. So he's talking about that the Fed will have to print money. And we know that when the Fed prints money, it benefits mostly financial actors, the cancel on effect, the people closest to the money printer definitely pushes people out on the risk curve. But let's go back to like mainstream economy. And we have these like regional bank failures. We've seen that credit is tightening. You know, I think what I forget that survey, it's like the senior loan officers, blah, blah, blah survey came out on Monday. And it showed that quarter over quarter, like more of them are continuing to tighten a significant majority of them are continuing to tighten, meaning they're not giving out new loans, and they're only refinancing their most trusted, you know, lendees and borrowers. So I guess I'm trying to square. OK, we look at we always talk about global liquidity or liquidity in the United States, but we're looking at money that already exists and banks just don't want to actually lend it out. So is it possible that in the short run we see, you know, credit tightening for local businesses, medium, small, medium sized businesses, commercial real estate, or for that matter, any real estate, multifamily, residential.

Like a point like what you're talking about where all these deposits leave the banks and like ultimately like M1 just shrinks and the money supply contracts because lending goes to all this stuff. Yeah, that just sounds like a bit of a deflationary recession slash maybe depression. And we know Bitcoin likes to go up and the money side money supply expands and down when the money supply contracts. So, you know, I don't think that's as exciting of an article to write.

He's exciting of an article to write these businesses. These banks turn to zombie banks, right? Because they're not necessarily able to lend out new credit. Like I don't even know if First Republic subsidiary inside of JP Morgan is necessarily going to have net interest margin in the next like 10 years. Right. Like I don't understand how that money, you know, proliferates throughout the economy, even the ones taken in and, you know, like receivership. Well, everybody, they're zombies.

They're not going to make any money, but why not? I mean, everybody that that was with First Republic before is now part of JP

Morgan and. Right. Right. And so in the case of the BTFD program, they have to borrow money in order to at a higher rate, at a higher rate, because they have the holding maturity bonds. And so they're kind of stuck. It's not like they got free money to to then lend out again. They have to pay a rake on that. And it's going to be tough for them to find something, you know, where they can

make an interest margin at a higher rate because they can make an interest margin and that yield of their pain is higher than they can lend it out at.

Right. OK, well, I want to I want to zoom in on something else that you said at like a higher level, which is that we seem to have this like push pull going on right now, or like maybe the push is the sort of surreptitious, secretive injection of liquidity behind the scenes to sort of prop up these banks and keep depositors whole or printing money. Big fan of it. We also have this pull force of depositors fleeing banks and the sort of credit contraction that's ensuing and the QT that's happening in the background. So one of these things is very bullish for crypto, I think, well, Bitcoin, especially, you know, the sort of inflating of the money supply. This government backstopping, I think, is very bullish for Bitcoin, the sort of sucking sound of money coming out of the system. Credit contraction is not at all bullish for Bitcoin. That's why I think this is such a hard market to invest in right now. We saw that that that that net liquidity indicator we mentioned, I think it was I don't know if it was last week or two weeks ago, it did flash red cell signal again.

Red meaning, yes, fan of it.

We also have red meaning blue on your indicator, blue on my colorblind indicator. Yes.

Yes. That's all I wanted to hear is in the blue flash. That's that happened today.

It reflashed today. It had flashed and then we had a sell off in S&P and it kind of went back below the threshold. But as we rallied, it is a flash cell.

This is all daddy's been waiting for.

So there are some GTFO signals kind of flashing in our face. And if you plot global liquidity, it has been quite

so my take on this is like what you're describing about Bitcoin does not apply to like the rest of shit crypto.

We've seen that in shit crypto prices last week. I mean, we saw some. I mean, there are days eath was down 0.2%, and there are coins down 10%. We started to really see the separation of eath, Bitcoin, and everything else.

I was just gut feeling though like gut feeling. This is like an independent of any indicators or anything. Gut feeling tells me, we get this low inflation print and everything, gut tells me like we got a little room to run here.

Do you think we sell low inflation print? I saw a real, I saw a average to slightly high. Well, I guess.

Inflation print. I guess. Inflation print. Not scary, not a scary inflation print. You know, like, I think when you go directionally correct, which I believe this was, you know, I was thinking like, okay, a little room to run here. But again, you know, I've been probably the most bearish guy on our whole panel for six months. Like, I think like what I see here is maybe like 5% upside and 25% downside. But I just think that the 5% upside might happen now.

I think what I'm personally positioned for and think will happen is that we get like a sell-off. That's fairly substantial at some point in the next, you know, few weeks or so. But I don't think that ultimately takes us down. I think that bears are probably left disappointed again. And I think that could give some breathing room actually for like a run, like even higher. When I look at a NASDAQ chart, like if I just come out of a coma and look at that chart and you don't feed me any news and I go, wow, that thing looks like it wants to squeeze up pretty good. And if you zoom out on a Bitcoin or Ethereum chart

and get off the five minute and look at the squeeze up,

pretty good. You're on the five minute. Well, no, I agree with you.

I agree with you. I agree.

I've been trading with 15 second chart lately. I agree with you. This looks like a accumulation and just like a rebound

basically like Ethereum. Like accumulation basically like, yeah, like if you talk about market structure, right? Where you put it in higher highs, lower lows, higher highs, lower lows, higher highs, lower lows. If you zoom out to like a weekly timeframe, I mean, like above I don't have a chart in front of me. So I'm just shooting this from memory. But like above like, you know, 1450 on E through is this still, I think you could still squint your eyes and say this is this is sort of bullish structure and that would like panic people. Um, but even in the last bull run, like we have 30% pullbacks, but I think on the way

going higher on the way going higher, here's, here's my other, like just to play devil's advocate on that. Cause I agree with you. Like that's also what I see, but it's like, like the right time to short doesn't look right. It's never easy, you know, like, it's never looks like, oh God, this was like obvious,

you know, it's like you kind of have to take, I just don't, I just don't see why stuff goes down right now. Like I see why stuff cools off right now. I see a market that's like overheated, I see a market that's like way over its skis in terms of like, you know, liquidity reversing the other direction. While it's sort of still going up. I see a stock market that's basically hasn't priced in any recession. And it's just sort of doing like earnings, multiple adjustment. And like, I see all that that needs to cool off, but as, as for like, what is going to send this like back down, like sub a thousand, uh, theory, I'm like, I don't see that right now. I don't. Um, and like, I was happy to take a lot of risk off the table, like 1900, 2k. And I, like, I'm, I am short now, um, you know, from 19, 1950, I got some good entries the other day. Don't hold your breath guys. Don't hold your breath.

Don't hold your breath guys. Don't hold your breath. He's going to be eating along. I'm not. I'm not saying I'm riding that thing. The whole world knows you're not playing on riding that thing. Yeah. To that point. defend you a little bit because I feel like in the Twitter-verse, people are calling you out as a flip-flopper. That's not flip-flopping, you're a trader. Traders trade. That's what you're doing.

that. But going back to the inflation print, it looks like the market thought it was bullish because I think last night, they were pricing 25% probability of a rate hike. In June, now it's 5%. They dropped it. Yeah. So I think you're right, Stephen. If you remember our conversations late 2022, we were like, 2023 is going to be chopped and it's going to be deadly for both bulls and bears.

And I think we're right in the middle of that right now.

Yeah. That is pretty true thus far in spades. I feel way more bullish on crypto than I do about equities. I still can't see myself wanting to buy stocks at any point in the reasonable future. I would be very happy to just buy Bitcoin and Ethereum on nukes and just slowly keep

them in value. So many stocks actually look so bad still. There's so much froth out there left over just from this bubble. I'm seeing 20 times sales multiples on companies that are negative cashflow even today. And that is not the way to win in this environment. But I think if you do a price to sales multiple on ETH with transaction revenue as the sales, we're talking way higher than 20X. So but what you're describing is not necessarily fundamental on the bottoms up side. It's like macro.

Yeah. I think TLDR for the crypto audience, you're getting 5% in T-bills, just sit with most of your money in that. Every time a crash happens in crypto and everybody tells you it's over, just buy more crypto, just keep slowly doing that, wait two years and I think you'll be fine and try to ignore

the noise and leave the brain damage up to me. That's where I'm at. But it does become difficult at certain points. It hasn't become difficult for me yet, but I know enough to know that it will become difficult. I have these price targets in mind that I think we're going to go to in Bitcoin, for instance, like 37K Bitcoin. I'm still not blinking. I'm not phased. I'm still sidelined. But what if Bitcoin was like 55K and I'm just like, oh, God, I didn't participate at all.

It might. That's why I think you have to buy some at 24K because what's your worst case scenario

it goes to?

Yeah. What's your 18?

I don't know. It's not that painful. Yeah, but I agree. But probabilistically, I do think that it'll go to 37K and then just fucking nuke. So I don't actually care. I'm not pricing in the 55K. It might happen though.

You have to.

You have to price in just a little bit. I mean, if Bitcoin goes to 55K, ETHs at $4,000 or something, like $3,500, I have my forever bag on ETH.

As long as you get a little bag there, you're going to be fine. Don't be caught with absolutely nothing. All right. We've been going for an hour. So I think we should probably move into the final discussion. We want to talk a little bit more about the meme coins. Bring it back home. We had a crazy week last week. People got really euphoric. You could feel the euphoria on the Twitter timeline. Everybody was FOMO-ing. I saw posts going viral on how to make your own meme coin with one click.

Within 12 hours, I just completely dumped a final percent or so. As soon as it got listed. If you look back at, I remember in 2021, I was looking at new projects getting Binance listings and that was the peak.

When it happened, that was bullish in people's minds at one point.

We're like, oh my God, we're going to be listed on Coinbase or whatever. I've seen Binance first. It's the bigger peak. Coinbase comes later, doesn't even reach the Binance peak. I hopped in the Discord. I was like, am I the only one thinking this is a little toppy because Binance listing

seems about as good as it can get. Will they laugh you out of the room?

No, actually, a few people were receptive. I didn't want to rain on anyone's parade, but that morning, I just started liquidating everything throughout the day and trying to monitor the Binance listing when it went live. As soon as it hit like four, I don't know how many zeros, 420, I was like, this seems about right. 420. Meme coin sale price. Good press. Cashed out and helped contribute to our co-host who's not pictured Milo's little dog cataract

surgery.

So I wish that everything. 420. Meme coin sale price. Good press. I wish I could just go camera three right now and go Milo on this third. Milo is not here. Milo is not here.

Milo is not here. Anyway, it was a 4X and in and out done. Well played.

Pay the taxes and take the profit. Yeah. I would guess the meme season isn't done yet. We'll probably have a little meme echo bubble and it'll probably, it all happens in like one tenth the time of all the normal price movements, but I don't know if I'll be getting it back into that. But for those of you who do want to partake saw a nice thread from Zeneca on Twitter. Rules for meme coins. Perfect. I liked it. Yeah. I sort of abridged it a little bit, added some of my own stuff, throw some stuff out there. See, see how you guys like this. Rule number one of meme coins.

Period.

Good. Perfect.

I liked it. Good rule number one. Do you like that rule? Do you like that rule?

You understand if I find them out or if you're a small man, I actually think that's like sort of like a lame one, but it's fine. Okay. It's accurate. Yeah, I agree. But like everybody who's in this game is probably trying to gamble a little bit. Yeah.

So, okay. We'll move on to Number two. We all know that you're not going to listen to Rule number one. Rule number two.

Expect every single coin to go to zero.

Sure. Yep. Accurate. If you think your coin is not going to zero, yes, you expect them all to go to zero. dogecoin like the darling of all memecons that have ever existed is down

like it's still down like if you think your coins cuz like I I have like I mean I also apply this rule so like all crypto I have too much I have too much money in ith if that's the case like I don't expect it was your

To navigate this because a lot of people get rekt think that they're like a part of this like real thing That's gonna be the next

Shiba oh god. Oh god and and here's like the problem I have with it is that these discords and stuff they like they build Enthusiasm to a point to which you feel like you guys are on the same team. We're holding together

It's like no that is like a scam to get you to hold while you get dumped on. Yeah, and I think like a Shiba was an exception to the to the Binance listing rule Like it actually rallied like three or four days after it But that was in a bull market with a bunch of new participants I'm talking new crypto participants like starting up a wallet to buy Shiba And so especially in these, you know lower stage markets where there's no new entrants coming in It is player versus player like you have to understand that we're literally playing against each other certainly, we're trying to help each other in our discord in our community, but like, you know for Influencers and I don't know. Yeah, especially those Twitter influencers

It's like it's in every but it's like it's in everybody's interest to tell everyone to hold and then you just do your own thing On the side, otherwise known as a Ponzi. Yeah. Well, yeah

There it is. You guys are touching on some of the later Okay, I should have branded this as the 10 meme coin commandments. Yeah There were 10 things here, but Way that was way too big brain for me next up. Oh, I like this one you will never be happy

Okay, I see you. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. You can describe them there were no on the blog How zeniga's one too? I like that. Well always always wish you held longer. Yeah, you're sold sooner

You're never gonna top ticket or bottom never adopted. Yeah. Yeah sold sooner. You never adopt it Yeah, like exponential growth is a bitch It looks really obvious in retrospect when you look at the chart But like in real time Really hard when things start going parabolic to actually spot the top or to get out before things like really feel that yeah So the thing to do is to take profits play with house money as soon as you can Kind of sucks cuz you give up the 10,000 X Yeah, but scared money don't make no money Stevens. What do you say about that? I don't know I I'm very happy like doubling tripling my money in these things and like a couple days and just moving on my life

That's like a really nice return. No, you're I know you're not no, you're not

No, I actually I actually really am I'm good with it That's that's that's what I did last week and stuff. I was happy to just That's I think that personal personal always leave a moon bag though. Always leave a little runner leave a moon bag Yes, do not be like me. I think is that one of your

I think that's personal personal always leave a little runner leave a moon bag. Yes Do not be like me that I think is that one of your commandments cuz that that should be one of your commandments the 10th

Commandment good. Okay. Sorry. Sorry to skip. Okay. Sorry. Sorry to skip ahead. Are we on adultery yet or no?

Sorry to skip ahead. We are on to number six Twitter Equals evil. Mmm, and I agree with this a lot. Actually, this is especially true during the bear markets right in a bull market There is actually alpha on Twitter because the sort of chain of There's this sort of like chain of like information, right? I think it likes things start in the private groups they really like kind of elite telegram chats And then they sort of leak out into discords and then they get on Twitter And then they get in there like YouTube videos And then they get in the tick tock and then they get into your uber driver. I'm like bye then it's God, you should create a float track. This is good.

Yeah, the diffusion of alpha instead of this. God, you should create this float track.

Float track. This is good. The diffusion of alpha, instead of diffusion of innovations.

But in a bear market, the whole end of the chart isn't there. So in a bull market, as a crypto enthusiast, you get used to having this alpha by getting stuff on Twitter and hearing about it before your friends hear about it through the TikTok grapevine or something. right? But in the bear market, all that's gone. And then you become the last stop in the information train getting anything on Twitter. So like in a bear market, when I start hearing people tell me stuff on Twitter, I'm just the sell button. I'm just like run and just mash it as quickly as possible. The other dangerous thing about the Twitter feed is that it instills so much FOMO in you, right? Like you search for like Pepe, right? And then suddenly the next day, every tweet in your feed is about Pepe and it feels to your little brain like the whole world is talking about monolith. Everybody's talking about it. Every other post is Pepe.

the algo. Do let me sell cell cell cell button. Do let me well, let me ask you this though, like where do you find out about the Pepe's if you're just a participant, you know, like,

if not from Twitter, the best way to get alpha is to build up a network of like private group chats and try to figure out how to get into like really elite group chats. If you can, I see stuff roll into some of those that I'm in occasionally. And I'm like, Oh, this is good. Especially if I hear it there. And I look look on Twitter and nobody's talking about it yet. Like, Ooh, this could this could actually be a thing. That's where we got wolf game from a little bag off that. Yeah, wolf game was that was a network play as perfect example of a that was like a literally like 500 bagger. Stupid. Like in that still holding any wolf game. I still have some wool. I just you just sell it.

I still have some, uh, like in that still holding any wolf game. I still have some, uh, assets. I

have like a sheep and shit that I don't even log in with. Don't even log in with things. I don't

use it. Just waiting. See if, uh, in 2026, they actually perk up, actually perk up and logged in

in ages. Sorry. Keep, keep going with the numbers. Number seven, listen to nobody, nobody. Everybody is lying to you. As you said, everybody in your group chat, who's like, we're holding, we're holding, there are all the waiting to just dump on you as soon as they can. There is no honor among meme corners just to win and help, win your terrible friend. Influencers are not your friends, especially. But even your chat friends are not your friends, but definitely the influencers are not your friends. Like the guy on Twitter, especially right now, who was like, you guys are all going to buy this. You're all going to make make so much money. He already owns a bag.

sell 10%. Just do it a little here and there. And then if your repetitions in and the muscle

memory of actually sell, no, no, it really feels good actually to just cause you're like, I don't want to sell half and just think about like the tiniest amount or you would sell it and it wouldn't matter. We'll sell that. See how it feels. And then you go, Ooh, then sell a little bit more. It goes up, sell a little bit more. Um, uh, we, we already talked about number 10, uh, number nine, have fun. Don't hate on the meme coin. Enjoyers. Just, just respect the stupidity that's going on around you. Your friend makes a hundred X. Don't be mad. Just, just give them a little clap, you know, put that positive energy out in the universe.

What do you guys think about the, uh, the 10 meme point commandments, positive energy

out in the universe. Calcium wants you to finish up with the, uh, at the end of the list and say, anyway, these are the meme coins I'm buying right now. Uh, Bandit says, uh, who would have thought Pepe

would have been the savior of Bitcoin security budget. Yeah, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, uh, uh, yeah. Anyway, like I am not planning on buying any more meme coins at the moment. I do have an eye on the Pepe chart. Um, at these things sometimes have like a nice second

run up. So as a, as a, as a trader, um, looking maybe to, to do that, maybe to, to do that

a Lexus worth of Pepe. So he might still need your charts. So might still need your charts.

Yeah. I told him not to do that. I want to give a, I want to give a shout out to a bandit in the chat who, uh, was an admirer of our chairs today. Oh, Ben, it's been a, uh, a pretty vocal antagonist of our eth buying. I appreciate it. Which, which I think is fair. Uh, I, I have not DCA'd in as, as he has suggested, but, um, really appreciate the shout out on

the chair. You may have the last laugh. Um, the chairs are a luxurious color of the alfalfa

logo. They feel nice green, like the logo, like the money we hope to acquire, um, please, please the universe. Um, just putting it out there. Um, anyway, okay. What are we going

to do? Take a little break? Yeah, we're going to take like a five minute break and then all right guys. And then what are we doing? We're going to come back. We're going to come back. We're going to come back and talk about the Kevin Kelly interview that we did last week. Eric wasn't here for it. He's got some things he wants to talk about, but if you didn't listen to that episode there was a lot of alfalfa on travel on death on should we be a techno optimist specifically like an AI optimist yeah there was plenty of stuff to chop up and it was so much so that we needed to like

I thought you guys did a great job by the way and it was like a fun watch but I also thought you guys botched an opportunity a little bit all right well

all right well we'll save it for the well let's say for the next step called

a tease Eric's gonna Eric's gonna shit all over us in about five minutes we

hope you guys will we'll be there when Nick comes back with more tequila yeah go get grab some yourself and see you back here in five