141. ETH to $50k and The Girlfriend Chat Bot Making $71k/Week - Transcripts

launch launch welcome welcome welcome to new official home of the alfalfa podcast so we spent how many hours yesterday but at least 17 foam walls there are some

blemishes some perfect don't tell them that no I am at least 17 no I can see

some arm on squares that that are problematic but this whole side right

here is a complete blunder this is after by the way I completely took down entire

columns of arm on to realign them realign them you can't take down columns

of our bond I'm I'm impenetrable the man does not have any did lose it does not

have any angles did lose a race is not a protractor we talk about the race how

much money did you guys lose on me today I won my Venmo is I bet against I

won I bet against you pal yeah yeah sure did stay on the full Venmo you pal

yeah Stephen that was really heartwarming how you bet on me look I honestly thought you would be you need even the sprint and I was wrong okay

hold on let's hold on let's make a picture sandbagging son of a bitch

didn't tell us he has like five state record let's play a picture we just came from a baseball game Nick Nick his business just hosted their company which he cordially invited the alfalfa podcast to as well thank youFOR Bypass for the media so we went to the Padres game and naturally

evolved into gambling as it as well i'm first baby Laurie

well I'm first of all I wanted to entertain is what it involved how much thank you so much for providing me when you know staged what we did what happened

first you wanted to plus the experience first I challenged Adrienne to a pitching speed contest which he backed out of immediately

yeah I mean he did not, he was eager to throw against you

yeah there was it not so yeah there was no what is that like the velocity meter there was no like radar gun there was no radar gun by By the way

there was no radar gun by the way did you look in the discord I ask the discord to guesstimate what you would throw did they all say 98? their numbers were hilariously bad what are they word and they guess Marty McFly I think said 73 ok which made me really discount his tinfoil credentials because there's just no I'm sorry that's all it took

That's all I think what were they guess Marty McFly that's all it took that's all it took? to discount Marty

Look if this man makes look if this man makes Armonne can throw 73 what else does he what else does he

believe what else does he believe

I wish I could like zoom in to this right arm that you have here

yeah it's a slider of the century

yeah you don't even know what

that's such a weird analogy by the way

it's such a weird analogy by the way I don't even know that's like saying like I'm the Michael Jordan of amateur basketball don't worry about it so yeah

no sorry

okay yeah so let me continue that Economy meter the radar gun didn't exist at the stadium they took it out two years ago due to liability reasons naturally

so

this is a bunch of law suits there's drunk morons like ourselves in there that are going to hurt ourselves so instead of in lieu of that we just had like a physical foot race where Armand and one of Nick's partners, Yaniv raced it was probably like a 40 yard dash ish type thing yeah yeah

dangerous a bunch of law suits no it was more

maybe like a 60 yard dash maybe like a 60 yard dash

60 yard dash and

motherfuckers like a gazelle yeah what he did what you need didn't tell anybody is that he set state records in high school and he slow played that i don't even know anything about right so he told me that on the side and you know i took action on Yaniv of course but i did give st Denver a choice

i said David Davis your call whoever you want to take i'll take the opposite side i don't even know anything about right

like she told me that in the side

anyway the money alpha here is to gamble with your head not with your heart my head knew that armand was going to go down in flames but i felt bad i felt bad after just absolutely itching on his arm yeah which i now feel validated for because there's no way after that legs the man played soccer for a living there's no way the arm is better

so your small soccer players aren't fast

no seriously no seriously people cancel they rent hold on

no we're faster than like a freaking you know like a lot of other types of athletes but a track athlete the guy is a track first of all shout out to you Neve the guy's goddamn gazelle 10.8 this guy's like 5'7

baseball player 10.8 in the 100 meter in high school he said

yeah i don't even know what that means i clocked myself i have no idea what that means i clocked myself 14 seconds within three seconds he was like six feet beyond me it was just like unbelievable it looked like i looked over at him and i just completely gave up he was just like flying he was just guided

that's normal with the short guys but i thought you would kind of you know accelerate it literally stood no choice and it was apparent to me after two seconds that you were not gaining any ground and then i just took the bill out of my wallet while i videoed you and it was over you're welcome you're welcome

thank you steven

thank you for the $20 and when i put it uh to eefe and i'll be like uh you know doing my part yeah i walk out for the green candle

not the first yeah i walk out for the green candle not the first $20

i lost today i'm here i'm here to entertain that's why i do this podcast

can we talk about can we talk about the other wager that was on the table i think that it was you need betting $20,000 that he'll be able to throw 70 miles an hour

35 that's right no steven becomes that there was no way he would hit 70 miles per hour within 17 months 17 months? he just pulled me out of his ass you really pulled that out of your ass 17 months

like what was that 17 months?

no 17 is a funny number i just like to say because it sounds funny i like like expression

way funnier than 12 months

because it sounds funny I think there's 17 months way funnier than 12 months were you ready to go $20K on this wager

absolutely because if i bet $20,000 on Yaniv there is no fucking way he's going to sit there and go okay wait a minute am i going to wake up every day for the next year and a half for like $1,500 a month and train to throw a baseball no he's just going to give up

i mean if i was going to win $20K

like if i bet him a million dollars then i would be concerned i still think he would lose i don't think he's going to

throw a baseball 70 miles an hour whatever this is I like it I'm with this whole degenerate gambling yeah just like maybe we start like recording these we make it part of the pod like we do a little bit like well i thought you guys

well you guys were off degenerate gambling

yeah well you guys you guys are all coming full circle now in my prior life you're like you know it'd be fun

just gambling for money all the time

i mean if we cannot well is your life fun today you still gamble for a living

i feel like i gave it like $20 and lost and i was like

Haha, I'm stupid I'm stupid I kinda feel like you gamble just using lion's

as the justification it's fine I had a bad day trading and I lost 20 dollars

it's not a good day to make that joke

oh, my bad what are we talking about? yeah we're gonna segue into the actual podcast now yeah well no there's no segway it just happens it just happens? spontaneously? yeah just happens all right do it you don't even know it's happening segue me so a little a little bit off bron Sigw Amey obviously like we have a new home we're settled in we're gonna be doing this once a week now and we're going back to the old format there was a time sort of our our GOATs and our OG members will recall when we transitioned from one long episode to three and there was some controversy around like is this the right move? Should we do this? Is this good? Is this bad? And we did it we stuck to it for a while then we went to two episodes per week and as many people know we sat down and we record just once a week but we were dividing it up into multiple episodes to give people like money politics and life anyway we're back to an everything episode and we're gonna be covering money crypto politics culture and life and technology and all the things within this episode and we're gonna be live streaming it so long story short show up at 5 p.m. Pacific Standard Time on YouTube every Wednesday to join us live and we're gonna be making this better and better every week or you can listen on the podcast player of your choice on Friday mornings we hope you join us live because we're gonna be doing a lot of fun stuff and as you can see we've really invested our heart and energy into creating a really fun space for this to do this live

look at this studio

let's let's talk about yeah, we're gonna segue into the actual podcast now it just happens it's just happened yeah, it just happens all right do it you don't even know what's happening do it segue me

you don't even know what's happening look at this studio, guys it's really awesome can we take a moment it's really great look at us yeah

who thought

it's really awesome can we take a moment it's really great look at us

who thought we'd be can we just give it a shot

no can we just give a shot

no, act like you've been there can we give a shot out to Steven for that nice little piece, right there

out of all of us I didn't think you'd provide a decoration

or a a sheaf of wheat like, as if it were an aofa

emoji and then are we thinking about like a neon sign here in the center shot

well we don't really have a third camera to even capture that

well we'll get right now but we'll get there

there so we're talking about EATH today we're talking about some price predictions all the way from bear scenarios all the way to very bullish scenarios that we'd like to see and then we're gonna transition into doing our best to uncover what's going on with the Ledgeragra recovery recovery program and product that they've released which will be an interesting discussion i'm actually really excited about that because i want to dig into the nuances of of that because we've talked about this a lot and I think that they're trying to do something good for adoption then we're going to dive into care and AI which I'll just tease by saying there's a chatbot of a Snapchat influencer that made $71,000 in one week and yeah we'll see where else we go from there

sounds good so if you're not excited about EATH price my friend you're critically underexposed

all right why don't you kick us off Eric

what's sure any any alfalfa

any round let's go in the alfalfa okay okay so the money alfalfa that I want to share today well I didn't want to go first but I will okay so today was a sports day for all of us we went to the Padres game right we watched the Champions League final I have talked to Armon for a long time about how I don't have a soccer team that I root for but I do now my friend I thought you do well I kind of I kind of really do now yeah Manchester United yeah this is like leading into my alfalfa you guys so Manchester United has a has a publicly traded equity it's ticker symbol M-A-N-U MAN-U Manchester United is getting taken over very very nearly okay so it's owned by

is it the Saudi yeah it's owned by is it the Saudis

no Qatar same same but diff maybe yeah there's two bidders okay so it's owned by this the Saudis are bidding okay so it's owned by an American family they're called the Glazers blowing it the Glazers own the Tampa Bay Buccaneers I think the Florida Panthers they're this wealthy American family they own Manchester United and I think the people of Manchester have grown tired of this ownership group they're like rioting on the streets they're like boycotting outside the stadiums

they're saying Glazers out

that's enough

yeah the context is like man you might be the most renowned club in the world other than like Real Madrid so like for them to just not be at the top for so many years is like

people are losing their minds beautifully said thank you for that because this is like my thesis towards my money I'll have here is that like this asset is very valuable okay so when they're selling this thing right let me just say that the stock price today is about $18 and change and that equates to about a $4 billion enterprise value on on the asset I think this thing sells for an immense premium above that so let's just use comparables for now Chelsea football club just sold for 5.25 the Washington Washington football team called the Washington Commander sold for six something the Denver Broncos sold for six billion something so Manchester United being this like you know like top tier asset I think will command a premium price you know well above its current enterprise value of four billion so what I'm doing on this is like selling the shit out of put options and I'm buying common but like what I would like to do like I think is as we get closer to like an actual deal I would like to buy call options if the buyout if the takeover occurs at five billion dollars a stock price would equate to about 30 it's at 18 now oh so I think we even go north of that I think we go well nearly under price yeah and and you know what dude we've talked for a long time about soccer like I haven't I've kind of been agnostic to the whole I just been a fan of of the game weren't you weren't you a leads guy I'm a leads guy because like well leads has three American players so like I'm rooting I love that I'm rooting for America on that one but then when I get into it more it's

like well well nearly underpriced guy I'm a leads guy because like

selling so many goddamn puts on this thing I better be a fan of man United

wait so the market cap right now is three point one billion ticker symbol

man you so yeah so three point one billion doesn't include the debt level I think they probably have like seven hundred million in debt so it's probably three point eight on the enterprise value if they sell for 5 Billion that would still be under chelsea which I don't think they would sell for under like below what chelsea sold for I think they actually sell for above so there's a bidding war between a British billionaire and a Katari, Shaik, Shaik, Shaik, Shaik essentially Shaik and then the Shaik is like coming in with higher dollars and the the British billionaire's saying like well I'll let you still control 20% of the business but coming in a lower dollar amount so I think that bidding war is like just pushing this price is higher like I am comfortable selling the puts below even current market price so price today 18 and change this thing went IPO in 2012 at like 15 $15 so like I'm selling puts at 15 like if I'm buying this asset at its 2012 price and it's 2023 that's fun Alfalfa yeah it's pretty nice and I get to be a little fan of Manchester United like if this thing goes gives below 16 and a half like I'm gonna be put to a lot of shares I'll probably be a 10% minority owner so you know then I'll really be a fan but as of now this is this is my money I like that yeah I

get I like that yeah it's fun and it's like you're you kind of feel like a supporter of the team a financial supporter of the team while you're a I love that it's not just a G gen

gammered why your route yeah so bottom line is like I think this is a win-win scenario like I'm like the premiums the premiums because the volatility is high right there's a takeover bid what I what I find in like situation like this like takeovers you have like a really high upside volatility yeah but then these the options get priced on both sides you know it's like these are priced on black sholes which is prices in vol right so like I happily sell the put's and if I lose them fine like I just own the out the common fine it's like a steep discount to what I think the cow

He's just he's just like yeah we we it's just we just print like a hundred X of it and still sell it for 70 oh and then we buy we buy soccer teams this is so

good what are we drinking about we're drinking the Nika by the way wait is

that wait is that what is that the Nika I'm having the Nika the Nika from the barrel I really like the Nika days I've never had obviously Yamazaki 12 is

pretty outstanding shout out to the Nika

shout out to Japan you guys are really

good at making whiskey though I can't

thanks you man I can't thanks you man I

mean I mean it's a Scottish word so yeah

yeah it feels like it's a German word yeah that looks German doshan Erica

Erica it's really good Max in the chat wants to know what kind of money you making on the puts like how do you how

do you characterize that it's really

good so it depends like how close to you know today's price you want to go but like I have I have my own metric I'm switching to my own camera I have my own metric that I've devised which Nick has seen before which is I call the juiciness factor which takes into account not only like the implied vol today and the premiums that you're getting but it's like the covered return that you're getting on the share so here's what's hard about selling options is calculating returns right and the idea what makes it hard is that like you basically don't have any collateral that you're putting down so like you you earn premium on nothing your returns infinity essentially so what I use is called the covered return which says like if I were to lose all of these contracts how much money would I have to put out and then I calculate my return against that and to Max's question long story short is like I can go like to standard deviations out of the money to a place that I feel very comfortable in this thing and earn like $50 per contract and I'm selling a

ton of them do you know off the top of your head with like if you had to equate it to an annual return what that looks

like like on a weekly it's I mean it's infinity it's right but if you did the cover call on the covered return it's it's well over the one percent a week that Iritic it's like probably double or three times no it's actually five times that the juiciness factor is above

five we're talking about it's it's infinity but if you do the cover call you're going like 250 percent

annual return if if you were able to capture this race on like an ongoing basis which you can't because like it's all about you know the takeover of all

but the other thing right the other assumption is you're okay holding the

common if you get put the shares and that yeah that's my that's my like real alpha is that like to me it's a win-win cause if I if I can buy to it's 2012 valuation and it's 2023 what's happened

since then you know like as much as how

much is bar so going for unfortunately they don't have a common stock I would

probably wait probably wait how many

teams have stockano's super common it's super common no not many not many and

in this particular case two manageable

does Bar challenges not worth gonna discuss that that centers of routine Sp that do there are few that do and like here's the problem honestly with like here's the downside with what I'm doing is that like I'm playing a game that is speculative in nature so like man you as a business doesn't make money and this is like common throughout all sports franchises these businesses exists an operating loss pretty much every morning a winery yet

ever gonna winery yet what they tell you but didn't Jerry Jones by the Cowboys for like eight dollars and 0-cassling

asset appreciates amazing to know

cash flowing asset appreciation

that's it so like you works with the numbers weren't real by the way but

they were approximate yeah so you bought you buy a sports franchise knowing that you're gonna have to like make cash out flows to operate this team but over time like that the valuation will increase and you sell to somebody else at higher price so that's the game I'm playing like you know I'm buying it like four billion and then I'm hoping to sell it to this Qatari chic at six billion plus I like it and you know they're in a bidding war so like they're literally bidding over each other here's the problem the the British guy is not buying a hundred percent of the business so he might not buy the common shares

off of me I like it but but but the market will correct to whatever the

value the valuation valuation you would hope that the market sort of like that that gap narrows interesting but that's

the game I'm playing okay all right um I got a little different type of alfalfa so I was sitting in the airport and there's a lot of debt ceiling talk these days so I had some time to waste and I figured I would walk through the 2011

debt ceiling wait timeline area point

so you're at the airport I'm waiting for my flight and I'm like you know I'm

waiting for my flight oh and I'm like you

don't you know what you know I do I was curious you an allowance at this point

or where are you you know I'm a sitting a waiting ready to board a 1 through 15

on on Southwest the bus yeah Vino Volo you're not you're yeah wasn't even Vino

Volo yeah wasn't even Vino Volo on the winery and I was like man I wonder what happened because it gets referenced often like what happened in 2011 what happened in 2011 and the short of it is that the stock market tanked 20% in a very short period of time so I was trying to figure out well what was going on and what was the timeline so I'll give you my notes on it kind of what I learned is that in January of 2011 Timothy Geithner said he was the then Treasury Secretary sent a letter to Congress saying hey guys between March in the middle of May we're gonna run out of money so you need to raise this debt ceiling now fast forward a couple months later he says May 16th is the drop-dead date if you do not raise the debt ceiling and around that time there was a little higher unemployment and it was slightly increasing I think there was like a like unemployment around 14 million so it was a little quite a bit higher than it was now we're at secular lows so keep that in mind on the winery a deal I mean this was like in the press every day like Obama versus John Boehner who's a Republican head of the House and they were just going back and forth like bloody mess going on 60 minutes battling each other and whatnot but the short of it is that they didn't reach an agreement until like July 31st well after the Treasury Secretary's Treasury Secretary's said deadline they actually did reach the debt limit on May 16th and the Treasury started moving around money literally not paying some bills the market didn't really make a move until about three or four days before the day the deal was reached on July 31st so in that first bit it went down 10% and I think because the market was like oh shit we're well-gotten stocks right stocks S&P 500 is what I

was looking at stocks it's pronounced

stonks sorry yeah stonks yes yeah strong strong stonks and it went down 10% before this deal was reached once the deal was reached it went down a further 10% this is like well after Obama signed it into law wait what year is this this is 2011 we went on 20% yes strong strong stonks we quickly started to rally back but it was a 20%

in a couple weeks do you remember what was going on in 2011 like was this the time when they were like furloughing

government employees and there was a

government shutdown yeah I remember

I remember this personally yeah exactly and so the one thing to keep in mind is that at that time there was a little higher unemployment and the biggest part of that deal was spending cuts and so spending put cuts equal less liquidity in the market and so I think that's something to keep in mind like if we start to see a deal forming and there is heavy spending cuts price in this you could see even after a deal is is inked maybe maybe the market doesn't like that there's less fiscal stimulus being put into the market and then the other part that we're predicting and this is going back to our net liquidity calculation which again is the Treasury or sorry excuse me the Fed balance sheet minus the reverse repo facility and then minus the Treasury general account that basically the government's got about like eighty billion dollars left and that's not a lot of money to have in their checking account and once a deal is reached they're gonna refill that checking account by issuing bonds and T-bills and so that's gonna suck a fuck ton of liquidity out of the market and so we could see that poll net liquidity down right after so let's see if spending cuts are on the table and and how

quickly this thing you know starts as a as Janet Yellen updated her guidance at all saying that we're like we would be

out of money by what was it June June 1 and also first week at June but I think going back to 2011 we know there's quite a bit of wiggle room when it comes to like shifting around payments as anyone would if we were all about to reach bankruptcy you just kind of like stop paying some people put it off move some money around that kind of thing so anyway I thought share my notes on what I was a looking at in the air 20% down 20% down 10% before and 10% after the deal was reached which I thought was

20% down you know doesn't care right now the NASDAQ pulled up it has those it has those five stocks that are just performing it's just like fuck you I'm going up it just doesn't care no care about anything it's like banks failing up because Nick Dot ceiling up niggles

doesn't care because it has those it has those five stocks that are just

performing just it doesn't care don't

care about anything it's like banks

bangs niggles right doesn't care driven by five components and like the s&p same it's driven by it's five largest components its market-weighted so like right its being held up but the brett is

fucking disgusting everything down I think it's also hard because like if we're talking about it on this podcast it's probably priced into the market you know it's like there's there's very little that we did I think there's stuff we talk about in crypto that's not priced in because crypto is this very like wild west borderline autist slash opposite of that market where nobody knows what's going on still smart money can't participate in weird stuff happens but I think like stocks stonks if you like everybody but yeah sorry everybody knows what's right like everybody knows about the debt ceiling you get these weird periods where everybody note like the banks are failing the debt ceilings happening in the wrong direction and it just keeps going up and then you start asking yourself like wait am I am I supposed to be buying here well let the

market Brotherhood buddy yeah sorry well the market rallied today off of some like just positive comments like based both sides saying we're not we're not defaulting on our debt as in they felt confident that they'll reach a compromise but that also happened if you read back to the timeline 2011 that happened multiple times multiple so we'll see if yeah I mean I feel comfortable betting on like just the political strife and like just pure

disagreement between both sides what do you feel like you want to be short this market eventually meaning like within the

next I revisit I revisited my asset allocations also in the airport and out of my liquid net worth half is in play and half is in cash I remember a lot

more than I I remember a lot on one of your off half of rounds maybe a couple months ago you said if I see the S&P go to like 4150 then maybe I take a few more dollars off the table like I did it

yeah I did it 42 and change I think and so if we go to like 42 and change and 43 and change yeah I'll I'll certainly peel more off and then go short also no not short not short just in cash and also if Bitcoin you know hits that 30k mark even goes above all I think I'll shave that off too I think it's weird this like time I felt very comfortable with cash I don't know if it's just like feels good emotionally just like no it's there and it feels must be nice it feels

comfy yeah so if we go to like 42 and

change and then go short all like almost borderline college mode is literally like getting close now I'm fucking around but like it's it's this is when you want it like this is when it all counts yeah this is the this is how you want to be prepared to take your time to deploy and you've been very observant and cautious and waiting for the signal signals for a while and like the fact that you're saying like you're you're exactly there where it feels good you know half in half half like ready to deploy I think that's exactly I mean the

plays been literally like I mean the plays been you know chop chop first half of the year and then yeah assuming some kind of down big second half of the year and we'll see if it comes and it

certainly may not yeah I think that's that's the key is that you're comfortable I would feel though yeah well you're comfortable because you haven't been tested like if you did your strategy you sold at $4,300 or whatever and then you know Bitcoin goes 50k then

you're like tilting how would you feel though yeah well you're well you're like tilting what did I do I'm tilting yeah

I'm tilting yeah do you have no spot I

do I do I do yeah crypto I think is 9

or 10 percent total yeah you're such a

net but yeah not having any liquid net

liquid net worth it's it's it's a lot more because keep mind a lot of my net worth is in it liquid real estate so yeah it's not like I can like sell it

and work I work more because I just wanted to just yell at you no what do

you to say I'll happily forward you my

annual returning is enjoying the chicks in the mail get them a mailbox money I just wake up in this chicks in the comment I'm proud of myself for not buying Pepe like I told I so nearly disappointed I said that people will get hurt I said that I'm gonna pass I maintained my composure to not get involved and I say this knowing that like we have a friend that turned a thousand dollars into five million and eventually got out for high six figures and that's remarkable that's incredible

he paper-handed at 700 K he paper-handed

at 700 K and then watch that out for 700 and then watch any go to five million oh excuse me thank you yeah okay poor guy

yeah poor guy sorry thousand dollars

that's not for you so like for guy sorry thousand dollars that's not for you

smooth 700 I was not in that position to have acquired that shit coin for you know at the price that he did in at the time that he did and therefore I knew that I would be chasing a hopeless dream and I decided to pass and in the past in that cycle I've made the mistake of chasing stuff like that and you know you you and I were talking Stephen so weird to sit next to you I don't know if I

like it I feel closer to you actually I feel closer to you but I don't know if you feel better with this arrangement I feel good yeah but you guys are gonna

yell at each other I feel good yeah you guys are gonna yell at each other combative and I'm not certain about this give it a second like how this how this

will beat us for our relationship I feel like I want to yell you more than that guy over there do you yeah I'd like

he's so far away from yeah I'd like he's so far away from me I can't I barely know his name so comfortable throw barbs because you're just sitting maybe I'll just I will actually just stab you I'm

gonna get a little maybe I'll just be a

little we are we are stabbed this start

calling you an R word even more even

Marty cut up to your but I remember but I remember like you were like I was like dude if we were in the the hype and euphoria of the bull market and we were in meme coin land and that was the thing then yeah I would have chased it because depending on when I got in on that little mini meta game I I would have seen higher upside and I would have played it and I would exit in and and you called it easy you're like that's too easy but you like to gamble and you like heart mode I like easy mode and to me that was like not easy mode it was hard mode I wasn't willing to play it I wasn't willing to gamble and I passed and I feel good about it so I guess my al falfa is just like after you've had some reps and you've taken your notes and you know what your plan is just fucking execute it like like know what you're comfortable with and execute it and be okay with it and be proud of it and be willing to come to your friends and be like yeah I stand by it like I'm glad I could have made you know 100% if I traded that perfectly and doubled my money but like I'm okay because I didn't have to think about it for those two weeks at all and I'm happier that I didn't have to think about it and I didn't stress for those two weeks so

that's that's where I'm at with crime I'm not trying to be a hater here though I think still after all of this Pepe's up almost 2x after when you declared you

didn't want to buy it there are so many things up 2x now there's nothing no I mean Pepe's the talk of the town it was the where the all the attention is but it's like I don't need two x trades in a two-week window right now that just

doesn't do it now peppers I agree and like there's some people who just need to get the turns right, the the big macro turns like are we risk on, risk off, risk

on again like everything again like gonna do with a two-week win on like a small percentage with a tiny little back right I'm never gonna full throttle on a two-week trade like it's just not

gonna happen right okay for the audience out there if you know that you can double your money in a week you should definitely do it no but you know you do

it no but you know you do it no one knew

that no financial advice no no no look

it's right in the thumbnail no okay I'm I'm partially trolling but there is some alpha in there right there there's sort of two philosophies trading at the extreme one is the lotto ticket philosophy we're like I'm gonna just drop hundred bucks into every frog coin I see and maybe one of them will 10,000 x right and then there's sort of like a trader mindset we're like wow this trend is so fucking stupid but I know it's got a 2x in it I know it's got a 2x in it so I'm gonna get in I'm gonna get out I'm gonna humbly double my money and then I'm just gonna go away if you can do that and I'm not saying like most of you can't do that I probably can't do that either I'm just lucky but if you can do that, that's that's perfectly acceptable strategy right you just have to know what you're doing like what is the trade and why am I doing the trade yeah I think it's perfectly fine to wait for the I think the guys who make out the best in the meme frothiness are the ones who wait and they go hmm okay yeah it is fully redacted right now I am

I'm gonna jump in the pool can you just please acknowledge the survivorship bias to like meme coin frenzy like at least

acknowledge it that it exists absolutely which is why I'm saying okay if you can trade it's better to be a trade it's better to be the humble trader who goes in collects 20% 30% in like two days and gets out like nobody's making a Twitter tweet about that as we call them on Twitter I'm told nobody's tweeting about that like oh I made 30% everybody wants to see the guy who made 700 acts on February but but for everyone that yeah there's like a survivorship bias thing for every one of those guys who tweets there's a hundred thousand people who threw a thousand dollars in and it went to zero right so that's like a false

fantasy so chasing that is silly chasing that is silly can I ask a question because I'm I'm an arm on when it comes to this stuff like I know myself at this point I'm like I'm a slow compounder that's like my that's in my DNA but when I look at something like this I see pragmatism okay and what I see is this it's like for for people who have a lot of money it makes sense to just earn 5.25% in t-bills that's great you're gonna make a fuckload of money and just by having no risk but for people with not a lot of money you should get some exposure to these things like like our buddy Dan who put a thousand dollars into this and turned it into seven hundred thousand dollars that's every took a fucking eighty percent haircut

like that's fucking awesome well to his credit his commitment to being at the cutting edge of the industry paid off the guys in every discord the guy pays attention to everything going on he's always looking for the next little piece of alfalfa cracking at three or four

years by the way in cracking at for

three or four years by the way in

swinging and missing many times like Kim and I've talked about multiple misses and all it takes is one of these to Stevens point about the lottery game he got one right and it's life-changing so I think that's incredible if that's your game and especially if you have the time and and the and the the wherewithal and also the balls and I play that kind of thing like it takes back to my point

to play that kind of guy I think it takes but to my point if you don't have a lot of money like if you got a lot of money you don't have to worry about this

shit oh you don't have to worry about this shit know if you have a few million bucks and you can kick back and you're like I only need this much to live off over the rest of my life and you can earn your 5% like why would you gamble

anymore and you got to like troll these fucking discords and shit like it's a

it's a hard life what do you guys think yeah dang gonna pay his taxes or no

Jason I was going to say his name was Jim

Billy yeah I was gonna say his name was Jim Billy yeah I thought his name was Jim okay Jimbo enjoy your enjoy your spoils

fantastic okay you have any alfalfa or do you want to talk bannack so I had I don't know if it's alfalfa but I had a long like sometimes I'd comment on a tweet and then I end up in this like seven day back and keep responding and I just have to keep

wait this is real yeah oh we're they

responding yeah Stevie you need bigger problems move a do you on the internet or is this more intellectual

yeah Stevie you need bigger problems and

what no it was in it was intellectual it's actually think I'm interested in yeah alright so you get a lot of engagement just cure I have no experience yeah no you've got a lot of engagements in the ETH Twitter land if you go oh look at ETH earnings and then you make some tweet about the price to

earnings ratio yeah no you get a lot of

engagement and this is like a grinds my gears thing because like I feel like we can't put PE ratios on ETH right I feel like it kind of makes sense but it doesn't like it's something that's directionally correct but it's wrong it it reminds me actually of the Bitcoin stock to flow model like a few years ago where everybody was like stock to flow and everybody jumped on that flow and you're gonna die so just to stop like he

that the whole thing is... archetype for how to create a sort of

like viral handle though he got me hooked in a little bit like he got my attention

that was one of the first people I ever learned about

I think the guys I got a million Twitter followers at this point right but like it it really exemplifies what sells on Twitter you throw a concept out there that looks elaborate and intellectual and complicated and make it but you simplify and somebody grasps it and they go like ooh I'm understanding this inside information that's complicated and not understood by the world but in actuality the model doesn't make any sense and stock to flow is just retrofit to Bitcoin price and there were a lot of people not not like a lot of notable maxis by the way but like there were people like like Nick Carter I remember and Eric Wall I remember two people in my brain who are like this is total bullshit like this is not a real thing but so many people went along with it because it fit their bias it was like Bitcoin up and I think ETH is doing a similar thing now it's like ooh we're looking at these fees and we're putting a PE ratio on it and it it doesn't exactly make sense to me right because the demand for block space is sort of priced in gway right and it doesn't really care what the USD price of ETH is right so you're basically saying like oh ETH price is 80,000 and we're charging this much like for for every transaction and then we're gonna oh that's that's a that's a 9x PE that's wow that's so unreal but if the price of Ethereum fell by 50% then it would be an 18x and if it fell by 50% it would be a

36x because you're earning in the asset itself it's the price up and down is reflexive and that ETH goes down so does

ETH go to the fees so so what what this felt I think his name was Figo.Eath what he said to me he's like oh it's like an exchange rate problem it's like if you were investing in an Indian company that had their earnings in rupee and you were like well my my I'm denominating in dollars those earnings in rupee don't make sense what if the rupee goes down 90% and my retort was like no it's not exactly like that it's if the Indian company was paying out earnings in their own stock right which was then denominated in dollars but it wasn't necessarily tied to the earnings like there's like a disconnect there yeah so I kind of throw that out to you guys like do you feel the same way about the

ETH PE chatter like does it feel weird to you absolutely I think like this is the big problem with anyone who's tried to value this asset using traditional methods is that you get you run into this like circular reference that you're describing it's recursive right that's what it is yeah and it and it becomes sort of impossible in the other part

that I've had trouble with bro it's recursive right that's what it is yeah

yeah the substance the very beginning

the other part that I've had trouble with is when you're valuing the token versus the network so like man it like when you're when you're participating in the network you're paying the fees and that's going to what like it's going and it's being burned by the network but then like you know that benefits the token but it's like also the network but it's also like you know what part benefits the token in this way like I've literally done backflips sitting here trying to think of like how like how to actually think about this like like is

this a cost or is this a revenue and you're someone who's who's probably like looked at like 10 10 K so like SEC annual annual filings and done this like

traditional valuation yes like I literally looked I've looked at guilds from every valuation method that I've ever learned with of which there are like 70 and it's so fucking hard to dial it in I haven't been able to because of these simple problems that you're describing but but you know to like move towards our topic like this van eck valuation model I think has done the best job of representing sort of like a realistic approach and and the outcome we can all you know we can we can discuss but I think the approach is reasonable and you know granted there

are these these issues right so right so so they're basically including transaction revenue like gas fees they're including there's in the sorry van eck van eck analysts which I went back and actually looked at some previous videos they've done I hadn't seen a video or an interview of this current analysis yeah

so if there's in the sorry van eck

then so for people watching we're talking about the VanEck did they do do they do ETFs or what are they what is their base they do they had like

a look at target they do they have like a their like a target my company ETF they applied for a spot ETF they're very

heavy in commodities like gold ah by

company yes they're a tradfire company yeah they're trapped like a man it's money part 5 Terry basically just have ETF s for like every industry in

verticals okay yeah they're filters

like part 5 try basically just okay so so yeah so what next referring to see like to their credit they put out a very what from what I've seen is the most I think thorough valuation model of aetherium that exists and they attempted to put like a future and a presence day value on the token and a whole bunch of like discounted cash flows on it and like really break down where that comes from so we're talking about that right now because we want to try to get from the point we're talking about Ethan like this PE ratio which is not good to this like more complicated model which which I think has some merits to it but which I think still shares some of those right

so so let me get let me put one place where I kind of agree with them so they have this that the baseline price model takes a free cash flow multiple and they apply a 33x so I was actually playing Google bard and I said hey can you give

me like examples can you give me a

teaser are you a bard guy I'm been my bard guy lately did yeah real-time data baby anyway I asked it I said can you give me examples of companies that have you know an under 10x free cash flow 10 to 15 and then I said what's over 20x and it gave me Apple Amazon alphabet like all those like kind of thing type stocks they're in the like low to mid 20s so to put ETH at like a 33 is not too far of a stretch so I agree with that but then you look at like their their revenue numbers and I think this is Stephen where your point comes in it's it's like okay base case is 51 billion dollars in revenue in 2030 but at what ETH price right like if ETH is at a thousand or 20,000 like the model

changes real-time data baby anyway I

asked it I said to example in the model changes report so they used a really good analogy in this report which I was like I read it and I was like yes that's the problem they started likening ETH to Dave and Buster's tokens right we're like people really love Dave and Buster's and they want to play games and everything and they're buying the Dave and Buster's tokens to play the game right and then they're like well ETH is kind of like the Dave and Buster's tokens and yeah that's the problem so then you get into this question of like what the hell is a Dave and Buster's token worth like the Dave and Buster's token isn't tied to some revenue multiple of Dave and Busters it's just like complicated supply demand model it's like akin to the dollar it's akin to any foreign currency like why does a currency have value like currencies don't necessarily have value because there's like an earnings multiple or cash flow is applied to them like there's this complicated like what are the what's the trade deficit what are all these other there's like all these complicated metrics underneath the hood that equates sort of supply and demand at the other day what is the demand for the year a relative to the dollar like we want to simplify it to this oh there's these earnings like but it doesn't exactly make sense like yes the more people who want to go to Dave and Busters and play the video games all else equal the Dave and Busters token goes up but is it really tied to USD

Dave and Busters earnings their price targets are anywhere from $300 to $50,000 and so it means in the by 2030 right

right in the by 2030 right right this was the part that grinded my gears with the whole thing yeah I mean I don't take this I can't take any of it seriously

probably yeah I mean I don't probably accurate though I get the bear case where it's like fucking nobody uses it like it just stops getting used so

that's why it's like 300 bucks of course that's like in the pot realm of possibility like I just I don't know well I think if you're gonna do this at all you you you you sort of like double down on a specific direction the

model the model breaks when the Dave and Busters tokens you get literally the price of them is so volatile it goes from 300 to 50,000 like I that's where the model breaks and I hope when they get some interviews maybe we'll come on and we'll chat about it with the two analysts who did it yeah like this is the main question we need to ask them it's like how did you derive those fees and at what ETH price and how do you factor in the volatility of the asset that is like being translated into dollar itself

yeah so to give people an idea of what they're projecting they took 2030 and so by their metrics today ETH has like two and a half billion in revenue which I still think is sketchy because it's not dollar revenue it's ETH revenue and then you value it in terms of the ETH exchange rate to dollar so it's a little bit weird right but 2030 their base case is 50 billion I think in revenue yeah their bear case is two and a half billion which is today and then their bull case is like a hundred and thirty billion or so 136 billion so like a 60 X from here it's a really really wide range there's some interesting tidbits under the hood there like for example they think 20 billion of that is MEV 20 billion of it's a lot it's a huge chunk and in doing that they said that MEV is currently like they put it at like they did some weird this is super wonky but they put some like equation of like oh it's basically equivalence of two and a half 2% of TVL it's gonna go to point one five percent right it's gonna like margins in that are gonna be compressed because they think applications and layer twos and everything they're gonna say hey this is a really bad experience to have our users sandwiched by Jared from Subway and like getting absolutely wrecked so we're gonna look to kind of compress that so that 20 billion amount is like taking that into account and it's still like a pretty high number and they had like an approximately equivalent number for like metaverse and social versus financial they actually put metaverse and social as like a I think like 30 or 40 percent higher in terms of revenue than financial and then they had this other category like infrastructure so they're like there's gonna be 50 billion of revenue in 2030 it's gonna mostly be metaverse social then financial then MEV then like kind

of baseline did you um did you happen to see the bit about L2s and their kind of

thesis on where value accrue yeah I thought that was super interesting yeah what they say they said 90 something percent of all transactions I have in

front of me so 98% of all transactions will occur 98% but 50% of the dollar value will still happen on L1

98% because so the take rate is very high

for ETH yes yes like the value happened because some transactions need extreme security composability like maybe punks will never trade on an L2 like they'll always be on L1 and maybe the provenance of being on a L1 is what gives them value and back and forth but so they said that like margins for L2s range from 15 to 40 percent and that as L2 competition increases that will like reach perfect competition around 10% and that they believe the majority of the value will be still accrue to ETH the asset which is something we've talked about before so it's nice to see someone take a

position on it there's some other interesting numbers in there like for example they looked at um they looked at like AVE they're like what percentage of fees paid to AVE go to the app AVE versus ETH right and I would have actually thought it was like 50-50 like AVE fees aren't they don't feel like they're super high and I feel like ETH is really extractive compared to the fees on AVE but they were saying that actually AVE gets like 90 to 94% of the fees and the other 10 to 6 or 7% go to ETH and then they said that was like actually kind of almost equilibrium they think in the future that applications that run on ETH are going to extract 90 97 percent of the fees and then the rest of it goes to ETH on the base layer for facilitating infrastructure so that was interesting to me that was we're already closer to where I thought we would be going we're almost at like the end point already in that regard so I thought that was interesting. Another thing that they said in this report that was super interesting is like they basically said that here's the direct quote from the report said curiously unlike most enterprises where businesses pay the overhead of rent electricity and the rest users directly pay the overhead of interacting with the on-chain businesses that on chain businesses hosts and chief vendor ethereum so they're basically saying that like when you go to the mall to buy something you pay for the product and if you got a Sephora to buy some makeup you buy the makeup but then they're paying for their their rants and all this stuff right but on ETH the

customer doesn't pay for the electricity to turn on the lights and Sephora and should separately then they pay for the makeup they pay for the

right right like ETH is this weird ecosystem where you go to the bank of Aave and you pay like all of their infrastructure and overhead costs in your transaction and I was like hmm that's weird I'd never heard anybody phrase it like that and I was wondering if that's going to be actually a sustainable thing I didn't think eventually not right right like it seems like in the future the Aave's of the world would absorb that cost and sort of obfuscate it in a way and they would be competing to have like a lower you know cost to the consumer to get the end product that they want

I sure didn't over think

I didn't think eventually So EJ I have a question for you Hey man Hey how are you?

Not bad yourself

Splendid yeah Splendid yeah Weeb it tipsy as I just said in the chat so you've been doing this analysis for as long as possible you've tried 70 different ways to do it and you feel this is the best that you've come across what do you think of the price targets and where do you land like with your critical analysis of the whole thing

if you don't mind can I give you a two-minute masterclass in valuation I would be Ooooh please

B'honor

B'honor Jordan clip it so as I

B'honor Jordan clip it so as I

D'irme items as I look at this model what I see is that like when you approach evaluation there's two ways that you value anything and one is called relative valuation and one's absolute valuation so relative valuation is is you measure the value of something relative to something else okay so in tech companies you would say you know this thing's trading at five times sales while I'm growing at faster rates that's six times sales or in uh in a home you'd say like oh this 32 home is is selling at 700k well I'm a 33 I should be trading higher than that so it's a relative valuation and then it in the other side of that is an absolute valuation okay so what van vack is doing here is an absolute valuation the absolute says like this is what this thing is worth independent of what anything else in life is worth okay it's based on like its own merits is on cash flows intrinsic value says that this thing should be worth x and they said that like okay this

is more difficult

to do by nature right it is exponentially

exponentially and more difficult to do it's way harder to compute I was hoping to say that because an absolute valuation like if you get it right hypothetically speaking an absolute valuation if you if you can calculate it correctly this is going ultimate power this is going to be the exact value of the of the sense

more thank you

way harder to

compute

thank you for saying that this is ultimate power of the asset

it's like having the crystal ball versus like what we talked about before the relative value is like it's a quick and dirty method but there are so many plausible ways to get that wrong along the way right the quick and dirty is pretty shitty absolutely is very good but it is very hard to get correct so what Vanek is attempting is inherently very hard they are trying to pinpoint like what the cash flow value of the ETH network is assuming that the ETH network is a mall assuming that the ETH network is going to rent out there block space like a mall rents out their square space to Sephora and Sharper Image and Macy's or whatever and ultimately it is the consumers who walk into that mall that buy the products from Macy's and Sephora whatever but the dollars flow to the mall owner as like they rent block space or you know square space so when I look at that approach I am like this is their square space this is directionally correct I love it Steven's questions are valid like how do you value it when you have this like you know reciprocal sort of circular problem I don't know the answer to that yet but I think Vanek is on the right track what you found is in the output of what they said is like hey this thing based on our discounted cash flows could be anywhere from zero to 50,000 that is like okay well that is the problem with the absolute valuation is that sure here is what happens in absolute valuation you have a numerator and a denominator the numerator is the cash flow the denominator is the discount rate let's keep the discount rate out of it for now where the valuation model goes right or wrong is all about the numerator it is all about the cash flows so if you project the cash flows to be X Y or Z your valuation is going to basically follow that what van Eck is basically saying is that if the cash flows are not coming in strong that is our bear case the valuation of ETH the asset is going to be weak if our cash flows are going to come in very good that is our bull case and it is going to hit D K So what I would challenge anybody to do is to use their model I think this is actually this is the alpha here use like their framework because it is like directionally correct use their framework if you believe in either their bear case or their base case or their bull because or somewhere in between any of that use that and say like ok based on my assumptions of the numerator which is basically the demand of the network make your own projection of the demand and then you can easily sort of like assign your own valuation to ETH based on that because that is basically the intrinsic value of ETH like they did a good job the only thing we can argue on is like like what the future looks like

in terms of demand so I have two follow-up questions and maybe we can answer those as we wrap up this portion but before we do I have an ask for the audience if you don't mind as you're watching in front of your phone or your laptop hit the like button it certainly helps get the live out to you know friends and family and helps us grow oh like you like yeah and I'll cheers you to that and if you don't I'll see your abstention in the analytics

so I'll see you as it grows oh like you like

but my question is first off one do we think ETH right now or in the very near future will be valued off these traditional valuation methods at all and then I want to know what your guys' 2030 prediction is for ETH because the reason the Alfalfa podcast talks about crypto in the first place is because it's the highest risk return asset we think presently and if there was something else we probably would talk about that most of the time so I'm curious what you guys think I got my own kind of like number in mind but I don't know anywhere you guys sit first off are we even evaluating this asset off off traditional methods will it be valued off revenue in 2030 even?

no okay no

it's a new kind of asset no to that specific question yeah like we're trying to

yeah like we're trying to apply these old ways of thinking to a thing that's never existed before I don't know like if you take something like gold why does gold have? gold doesn't have cash flows but it has value because there's some you call it like a monetary premium and then there's some sort of demand for it in industry and then there's some sort of demand for it in terms of oh this is just a scarce thing that would just be against the debasement of the dollar and then the more people who believe in that specific meme the greater the demand for that narrative and then the greater the price like what is that formula? Nobody knows that formula it's complicated and gold I think is a really difficult thing to price because it is very widely held by like central banks and large world banks and who knows what they're doing with the supply and you're just sort of along for the ride with that right whereas like ethereum we can be very confident that the US government does not hold like 8% of the supply of ethereum or something it's just not a thing so you're in before any of those shenanigans happen the other thing about ethereum is it does like I know people have talked about this sort of triple point asset meme a lot it has properties of a commodity it has properties of a bond it has properties of the currency and I think it's sort of difficult to weigh all of those things together but I think what you can understand right is like look this thing is going to zero or it's going to $30,000 $50,000 whatever you want to call it right it almost doesn't matter it's a thing in your portfolio that is like an asymmetric bet like if I told you you could have a bet that you could lose which is going to zero or you can make 20-30 times your money you just take the bet You're not like well is it 20 times the money? Is it 10 times the money? Is it 50 times the money? Is it 100 times the money? It almost doesn't matter like you have to allocate something to the bet like if you believe in the general direction of the meme as we all do like we think we all think I think here that this is like a super interesting asset that the world doesn't yet understand then you need to be allocated to it you don't have to be like all in but anytime the world offers you a bet where the downside is you lose everything so negative one doesn't get worse than negative one but you get like plus 20 plus 30 plus 50 plus 100

you just take the bet, right? Can I go? Yeah, I think you're right. I think that's like direction correct. My presumption with ETH specifically is like that maybe maybe it doesn't trade on like a traditional asset multiple or something like that, right? Maybe it doesn't. That's OK. Like gold exists and I've always like used Bitcoin as the proxy to gold. OK, so like I one day believe that Bitcoin will surpass the the value of gold. That's that's this is my supposition and and gold is worth 11 trillion dollars today and Bitcoin if it were to surpass that would would be $250,000 per coin. OK. I haven't done this math for ETH but like maybe ETH, you know, plays along that same path, too.

is so is so in other words, the the comps to historical ways of evaluating these types of assets are necessary to a certain degree.

Well, yeah, they're part of the mean.

Well, yeah, they're part of the mean or helpful, I think. Yeah, I also don't know if that's I'm going to I'm going to illustrate a totally absurd case, right? Imagine I told you ETH is going to go to zero or was going to go to literally 900 quadrillion dollars. OK, yeah, like at that point, you wouldn't be like, well, I can't really invest. Like, is it going to go to 900 quadrillion or one quadrillion? Like, I don't like at that point, there's just a part of your portfolio that is so insignificant and the asymmetry to the upside is so great that you just you stop thinking about it. Right. And you're not necessarily even trying to exit. I can just tell you, like, look, it's a Lotto ticket. It's a lot of ticket you lose 90 percent of the time. But when you make you make at least 1000 times your money back, you're just going to play the game, you're going to be like, OK, like, I have to just play this game. I don't have to worry about what the exact upside is.

a omega lottery ticket? Yeah, and I want to start hearing

some price prediction boys 2030. Well, do you want to wrap up with the price predictions? Or do you wanna do? A rebuttal service? Give me your thoughts on

my thought.

A rebuttal service? I mean, your point is fair. Like, if it's a Lotto ticket, its a Lotto ticket. You allocate to a lot of ticket. But, like. It's good Lotto ticket.

It's a rigged Lotto ticket

in your favor. It's a good Lotto ticket. And, I would hearken back to something that you've put me on. Which is like you, when you enter a trade and this is different, right, like. We're talking about an investment onaud trade. But you've put me on this idea when you're going into a trade. You know what your downside is and you're on the upside is. And, like for me, to have the upside would just be X question mark and have downside be, you know, like not 100% but 90%. Like, I would like to know a little with a little more clarity like what I'm expecting on the upside. And, for me, how I would discern that is to tether it to, you know, either an absolute or a relative valuation that makes sense to me. An absolute one would be like how Van Eck does it. Or a relative one would be like comparing it to another asset class like gold or whatever.

Yeah, let me ask you. Let me ask you more directly. If assuming ETH works, let's assume that whatever your concept of ETH works, it's 10 years in the future. And we're like, oh, that worked. What do you think is the minimum price? Like in like a bad scenario. But we're all like, yeah, ETH is a thing. It's got 70 percent of the smart contract demand.

I just don't even understand what that means, personally.

I think like Van Eck's bullish expectation discounted using a 12 percent

discount value is probably correct. Yeah, so I mean, what I digest your kind of like perspective as, I still need to sign probabilities to it because you're right. It is a lottery ticket. But like when you put the price at will ETH be at 4500 by 2030? I'd say that's more like a 90 percent probability. But like when I when you say will it be at 50000, I'd be like, hmm, well, I got to lower that

probability. I agree with you. But what I'm trying to say is the probability equation you're using in your investment thesis is more like it works or it doesn't. Not like what is the actual well, when it works, is it worth 1000 X or 100 X? I almost think that doesn't matter. It's sort of like, what is the main case if it works?

And what is the probability?

Assuming you don't have an opportunity cost that's of similar like returns, right? So I'll give you I'll give you guys mine. So my 2030 is in the range of like 18 K to 25 K is where I put like my baseline projections.

You arrived at this price by calculating the amount of feet of Mars. Yeah, exactly.

No, so no. So actually, I still like the logarithmic regression curve. The logarithmic regression curve is used for things that have a network like effect. I like it. It takes into account diminishing returns as the network grows. And it's it is it is priced to fit off previous data. Bitcoin, I think, is the better one. So I actually and by the way, log regression, you can look at the rainbow rainbow chart for Bitcoin if you don't want to like look at the math version. It's it's a quite elegant chart. I'd say it hasn't it's broken only a little bit. Broke a little bit. But that's essentially what we're looking at is like an asset that has a network effect that grows in such a function where the the returns diminish over time.

And the rain can only break

a little bit broke. The rainbow chart has recovered, right? Like, yeah, yeah, we're back.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're back still in very, very strong by territory on rainbow. So I like looking at the Bitcoin price. And then I kind of like take my relative price on ETH. It's a very crude method. Like Vanek is, like you said, absolute method. I'm looking more at a relative method, I think. And so anyway, that's what I'm looking at, because I've had these tough decisions where like I think I've told you guys like I'm looking at multifamily property, a storage unit or buying a car wash that could make anywhere from 6 to 9% cash on cash. Annual returns are 20 to 25%, which has high probability. I have high conviction in it. And so, you know, I think ETH will perform well over 100% annual return, closer to 200% annual return. And so I'm making these tough decisions now where I'm used to just shoving cash in those.

OK, Bitcoin rainbow.

But over how many years of seven years? OK, seven years. I really want to get to the part where I've been having sex with this, like, AI bot. OK, so let's get there quick. All right, so we're going to wrap up the money episode there. You motherfuckers got to give me a number. Well, we still got to talk about. OK, let's get a number. We've got to talk about the ledger thing.

And I want to get to this chat about it. I really want to. OK, so let's get there quick. All right, I've been a wrap up the money. Truth. The motherfuckers got to give me

a wrap of the money episode.

There tell I was trying to hear driver my my my brothers. Now, should I say this? Now? No. I should no. No version pal driver. I said it. Rhodes.

You should know I STUDIU said so.

It's just a toilet. Georgier, can we edit that out? What is wrong with life is it like, is it? Paul Driver, what is he going to do?

One example for Gio?

Who is wrong? We're live.

OK, so you want you want surprises? Can you guys give me a fucking range?

Like I haven't had a chance to speak about the range.

About the range.

It takes it takes it takes it takes 27 characters of speech. 27 characters of speech.

We got to go give a range.

What year are we talking? 2030. 2030. Seven years. Call it two cycles.

I think 30 is. I think 30 is. I think 30 is optimistic. I think it's reasonable. I'm just trying to 10 X. That's my. Yeah, OK. That's my 10 X over seven years is well over 100% because I think it's an asset that if you have a bunch of cash, you can shovel a lot of it into not financial advice. It's not going to go to zero. 10 X over seven years is well over 100% because probably. And you just just get a smooth 10 X and you just chill. You stake it also 10 years from now.

That's no way. If you're sticking in the meantime, you're saying. Yeah, yeah, more. But do any of you guys stake? Yes, I think and I have a small chunk of all chunk. It's OK if it's been.

I've had money in that sale. Well, I'm glad you're just sharing with us now.

I've literally the first step. Go back to the old tapes. Go on to Steno Steno AI. By the way, look up the transcripts. Look up me saying the word Gearbox. You never ever heard you say something like, oh, he said that in November. We should have listened to him. You should have listened to him next on it.

If we if we had never ever heard you say that next on it. If we if we index. From here right here, which I think we easily can. If we do, though, we will be performing these podcasts from outer space, because I have now purchase Mars. And you guys are on my civilization. You could purchase.

And you guys are on my civilization. Purchase.

All right. All right. I like that. All right. Give us yours though, like what I mean? Because obviously you're based off something.

Just give me a range what I what I I don't really have like a fair value range because like the future is unknown and like how how the cash flows come in will determine how I view the asset. But if if I'm able to capture a 10 X on price today, I will gladly realize $18,000 I'll realize I will realize I'm 40

$18,000 I will realize I'm 40 honest. Okay, I like it 40 K.

Thank you for, you know, thank you for one of us.

You guys can take that you guys can take that to the bank

leverage leverage your entire portfolio leverage leverage

your entire portfolio advice. Okay, I've thought about this as sure as well. So 40 40 K based on based on reading this shit and thinking through it all and you know, applying my little magic sauce 40 K then. All right. Come on board.

I try to see you.

I'm on 40. All right. I changed my 40 K then.

So to take it from the macro to the micro, a lot of people are very upset right now. The situation is pretty alarming. There's a lot of misinformation. I love this.

I didn't know you're transitioning to I love this. I didn't know you're transitioning to Oh, ledger. You can.

Oh, I forgot. I forgot about that. Steven. We're recording a podcast. We are hanging out.

We are hanging out. We're just having a good time.

We have an agenda agenda.

We're just having. So we have Chianti. For the three people that don't know because well there's plenty of people that might may not. Ledger has released a new product, a new firmware update that is essentially a subscription for $10 a month that allows you to essentially like remove this rely, like, like remove this single point of failure of your seed phrase on one piece of paper and have this backed up and the controversy is that, uh, and it's backed up to like three different sources. And we can talk about the technicalities of how that works, but to really like get to the crux of it, this, uh, exposes something that a lot of people didn't know existed or was a possibility before on the device that you already own, which is the nano S, uh, one of their best-selling products, one of their best-selling hardware wallets. And this will be possible to add in simply by updating your firmware and opting into a subscription. They also recently raised a hundred million and they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars. Uh, they're a huge company and their startup that needs to succeed. And there's a lot of different angles on analyzing how we got here. Everything from this is a VC back company that needs to find a new revenue source to, um, we can't trust these guys. They've already exposed like our data a year or so ago, two years ago. Well, fuck that's three years ago.

Yeah. I mean, I, I think like, um, as you mentioned, they raise money and I think as the board of directors of Ledger, they're like, how are we going to onboard the next billion people? And they realize that like, you know, giving everyone a 24, which is the exact thing we've said, talked about, and they're like, well, how do we do that and make it simpler for them or at least safer and a better UI for them? And I think that like, they've also realized that along the way, they can create a nice little subscription business model for, for, for the business. So I think it plays hand in hand with like where they want to grow the market and the financial needs of the company. I think we're kind of learning for the first time that there is a social contract between us and the hardware wallet manufacturers that maybe we just

didn't know existed before, which is, which is the exact thing we've said.

We talked about, but I had no idea. Yeah. That there is possibly a firmware update that you could provide that extracts, you know, whether it's encrypted or not, like your, your private keys. And that's something that we weren't aware of before. And if it's, if it exists with ledger, it probably exists with others.

No. So that's the thing, right?

It exists with all of them.

I think so.

And by nature of the device itself requires software.

And we don't, we don't mind that they, they have that service, but I think what, what I worry about is in seven years when ETH is $18,000 and they own a significant portion of maybe my net worth, yeah, 40,000, sorry, sorry. I misspoke. Um, you know, if a government, a nation state size to say, Hey, we require this type of regulation or a bad actor, you know, implants an employee in the company and can patch in something that gives them a backdoor, you know, whether they're known or not, like all of these like, you know, kind of doomsday scenarios, which have happened when you look at like how intelligence agencies, like backdoor AV companies and all sorts of like quote unquote impenetrable devices and companies, it's certainly possible. So I think that's what we worry about. I don't think we are aware that, that that's possible. And now we're aware of it. So I think there's a few things you can do. Is like, do you, you know, one thing that a new comparison that comes up is like, well, is Coinbase safer now then? Then, then, then a ledger. Like it actually comes up in my mind now. I don't, I don't know if it is. But the other thing you can do is just implement a multi-sig, right?

Like maybe my net worth, right? Like, you do a multi-sig with, like, doesn't that implicitly mean you are going outside ledger already? Like your ledger is just one of the SIGs. Yes.

Yeah, but, but, but you might need two in order to execute a transaction,

which makes it, but you might need two in order to execute. But like, assuming you're just one person who wants custody of their.

In your crypto heart, in your crypto hardliner, like you've existed to this point for years. You may want that. I am kind of on the take that like for the next billion people, this might be like a pretty suitable, uh, like service.

Absolutely is. A great service for getting more people to utilize this technology, but it is terrible for the ethos of what Bitcoin and crypto is supposed to be. It's terrible for that. And, and my question for you guys is, because I, I have not dug into the technicalities of how this actually works is, and maybe you don't have an answer is okay if you don't, but it's like, if this flaw exists with ledger, why doesn't exist with every hardware wallet ever? Like what's stopping our, you know, uh, stored keys from eventually from whatever hardware wallet we use being one firmware update away from a government forcing the hand of a manufacturer or a corporation to say, yeah, I need this information. And I need you to give it to me now.

Like, can we, can we just throw something out there now?

And we, can we, can we just throw something out there? Okay. So, so the main thing is to acknowledge that all four of us sitting around at this table, none of us are actually equipped to like break down the intricacies of what's happening here. And they give you a definitive answer and that's kind of, I don't know, the scary's the word, but I would consider myself to be like a very crypto native person. Like I have like a good amount of my net worth on chain.

I'm on chain all the time, but even with me, like I, like I would, I would consider,

I would consider myself, there's, we talk about crypto about like just eliminating the trusted third party. Right. We, we talk about this fantasy world where we just have complete self-custody of all our funds. And, but if you think about it, like there are actually like all of these sort of trusted third party, intimate intermediaries in the way of like everything that we do in like, and the ledger thing is scary because it breaks it down to the hardware level, right? Like, so the fact that they, they push this update through and they said, they said, well, you could opt into it. Right. But why is it even possible with the existing hardware to push a software patch through where that hardware can port your seed phrase over? It's like, I think a lot of people were like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Wait a minute. First of all, why was that even possible?

And eventually, wait a minute.

First of all, eventually, like, okay. One, one way that like an individual could play it would be like, I'm not going to update my firmware. I think that's a bad idea. How many, it's a terrible idea. How many years are you not going to update your firmware for? You eventually need to update your firmware because your object becomes obsolete by nature. Also. Like a just firmware updates, provide security. Absolutely. Like there are other vulnerabilities that are issue. So you eventually have to update your firmware. And if you've updated your firmware and you're one literally software, button away from opting into something that allows that to have some sort Of backdoor access.

I think that's a bad idea. How many? It's a terrible idea.

Like it just feels like fast playing all over me. Finance. Right. Like it feels like the way we got to the modern financial system was we were super decentralized at a particular point in time. We all just kept our own resources and then people were like robbing us and we were like fighting them off with sticks and then guns and then just battling. And then we've got together and we're like, wait, what if we give these to sort of third parties sanctioned by this collective entity called the government? And then we don't have to worry about this. And we're like, okay, that's good. And now I wonder if we're like going back. It's like, do you guys know the comedian Jim Gaffigan? He always whispers. He has this sketch about like, like people eating candy bars and they're like, we need people to have like a healthier option.

Actually you take all our crypto and I don't want to get too tinfoil-y, but I will say like, let's get in there. You know, I've had a chance to meet with like a former director of the NSA, former commander of cyber command and like, it is a practice of them. They like their former employees to cycle into industry and they certainly like to pull industry people in under their command, meaning like they like when their their employees rotate into the private sector and then back into the public sector. And if you think, you know, the United States is very okay with that. Well, then you got to think that like other governments are very capable of that, especially to like a French company like, like Ledger. So I'm just saying like, uh, yeah, there, there is a social contract. It exists. There are foreign governments who will certainly attempt this.

Like, let's get in there.

You know, I've had a chance to you.

This is terrible. This is terrible. But there, the fact that there is a social contract means to me, I'm sorry. Game over. Game over for most the whole thing is over. It's over. It's over. It's over. The whole purpose was that there was no social contract. They were just supposed to be a manufacturer of a physical hardware good that stored your key. Wait, who is they? Ledger or Trezor or whatever.

How with the width over. It's over. It's over.

No, no, no.

Wait, who is they? Ledger or Trezor or whatever. They're all the same. All the cryptos over because they're all the same now.

Yes, triggered is that person to know that there is not truly this idea of self-custody that exists without a third party.

Yeah, they use custody wallets and custody exchanges in order to use

their first place to like the first place to like. Of course they do. But what is the real version of this look like? What is the version of it looks like looks like that doesn't rely on anyone?

Like, well, I think what we should come to terms with is that like this is like shared risk, like let's say you use a different method and and Ledger has some kind of issue. You don't think that's going to impact your precious asset price. Like if, if Ledger has an an issue and you're on a Trezor, like this is a shared risk, I think if Ledger has what kind of issue, like some kind of vulnerability where all of a sudden people realize their seed phrases are, are not as secure as they think they are. And if that becomes public, like, well, this is a shared community risk. Like whether you're not, you're, you're losing the Ledger, like people fear most that another person gets their private keys, right? And so if that, if that happens in the future, if there is evidence of like it happening multiple times, this is a shared risk of owners of the asset class, whether you like it or not.

So anyway, I think, I think we should like, we think we should. I think it's a way bigger deal than we're giving it, right. Maybe.

And I think people should, maybe and I think people should defer to like the bankless episode where they talked to the CTO Ledgers if you want the technical version of this, I think Yeah. If you want the proper version, whyleye what do you think you want the proper

Yeah, if you want the proper version, why do you think you want the proper version of it? Go listen to that. But if you want the, like, what's really going on. Version, we just, we, we actually need like a, like, like a hardcore developer who understands like a cryptographer slash hardcore developer who understands exactly what's happening, who can explain like how keys should be stored in the most authentically self custodial type of way, and how perhaps this entire time we've been lying to ourselves that we can trust an entity of any kind to provide a physical device because ultimately it's based in software. Like, yes, there is an offline components of the whole thing, but if you can send a software firmware update to that physical device, then is it truly pure and secure, it's kind of like what came up in the money channel of our discord today, it was like multiple people were talking about the different ledger models and how the, if I'm, I think it's the, the X that is the one that has the Bluetooth technology and the S is the one that doesn't, and it's like being able to plug it in versus the ability to use Bluetooth, you're providing more points of accessibility and more points of vulnerability and more points of failure ultimately, and, and, and that's scary in a world where things seem to be becoming a little bit more dystopian as time goes on. There's more independence happening. If you're into the Peter Ziahan thing, which Steven, you are, it's like, it's not good for that narrative, right? Like, like you want, it's not good for the, for the, um, For the biology narrative. I still believe biology is right. By the way, about the re part, I think that biology is right. His basic thesis is correct. He's going to $1 million?

I think that biology is right.

His basic thesis. What is his basic thesis? We're printing- He's going to million dollars??

No, no!

Got to move quick, got to move quick, I think it's basic. I think his basic thesis. I think it's so weird that we're not at a million yet. No.

I think it's so weird that we're not at a million yet, but I think it's- I played a role in that episode where I just wanted to help us have a conversation. I think his basic thesis of like what is happening in the world is correct?

You werecases, I you were, you were anti-biology in that episode. What? Yeah. You were like, Bitcoin is not going to $1 million?

Yeah, you were like, Well, he was playing the, the moderator and like tossing up- No, you.

The moderator and like tossing up, no you did not say Bitcoin is going to $1 million. I don't think Bitcoin's going to. I know you didn't. Otherwise I would have dunked on you appropriately

I don't think Bitcoin.

I know you didn't, otherwise I know you did. But the point is, like- I forgotAY I would say.

Eric covers a little bit while he's working. Are you worried or not worried? Is that my main thing?

Yeah. Yeah. What, what, what's your thought here?

I don't know enough to be worried or not worried. What I do know is that if this is a worry, then it's fucked. And my suspicion- It is fucked. My suspicion is that it's a nothing burger like everything else is. Okay. So I've like seen people that I trust like I see, like go through their thought models on what's happening and they say that this is a nothing burger. So to me it's a nothing burger. But like, if, if it is as bad as we sort of make it to be, like, if this is, if this is really like our seed phrases are, Then I'll put everything on it.

It is fucked.

It's not a nothing burger. Then I'll put everything on us on a nothing burger. The fact that there is any vulnerability whatsoever on a level that exists with any company means that that is intrinsic to the technology of how the

seed phrases, how your KEYS are stored in the first place, in the first place. I would counter it with like, you don't know what you're talknng about, and neither do I, but neither do you.

So, sure, but neither do you.

So then, then, it's a worthless conversation.

back out of your counter, it's a worthless conversation. It's a worthless conversation.

Can I counter your counter? So, I don't know how Elejor works. I will throw that out there. I have no idea how Elejor works, but I do know that if they are pushing a firmware update that you can download and change the way your thing functions, it does mean that the existing hardware counter had the capability to do something before, and I don't have to know how it works, but I can, I can use deductive reasoning to say like, Oh, this thing had the capability to do it.

You want to live in a world with audio, that can go into whatever the f**k it wants? We're not willing. No, no we can go there. I can go there. I can absolutely go there. You want to live in a world with auto, they can do whatever the f**k it wants, already has access to the internet. We should have never given it access to the internet the first place. We should have never given it the ability to code in the first place. These are all things that max tech Mark talks about. And then now here we are. It has the ability to download, upload, access, all the f**king information that ever existed. And then how difficult would it be to push a firmware update if you're AI and you just simply want to bankrupt the entire f**king human race that has already moved from the big banks to, you know, self custody, crypto.

Actually I have a take that I want you. I want your Nica Whiskey talk. I want your take on my take. My take. My take from this as like, uh, like a senior ledger and you're a founder. My take is to pick a f**king lane. Like Ledger's like, we are the OG hardware wallets and like people keep a hundred million dollars of Bitcoin on our wallet. Also here's a, here's an update that lets you just recover your seed. And I was that already, was there a backdoor all along? I don't know, but here we are.

Have you just pick a lane, be like super accessible or I want your Nica Whiskey talk.

I don't know, but here we are.

Have you super accessible or just be OG? I should have let Robin Hood. Do that. They should've let metamask to that. That was not their game.

It's weird. Like you can't just be in both, Correct customers. You got burned your existing coming. Oh, there was, there was a space there was literally a guy in a Twitter spaces who was like, well, ledger isn't for people who have more than like 50 K in their wallet. Anyway.

And people were like, Oh, there was a space where they were like in their wallet anyway.

What only option, right?

For people that have more than 50 K what's the only option.

That right for people that have more than 50 Alliance. Like what's the safe one?

There you go about how they don't know their customer. They clearly don't know their customer if they made this move. That's the biggest thing that I took away from this is like, wow, they are not talking to the real crypto hodler at all.

So the three shards get shared with ledger company called coin cover and then a company that shall not be named. I looked up coin cover. I was like sitting in bed last night.

I was like, well, is all my money gone? That there is shall not be named.

No, it's just like some independent 3rd party. And I was like looking at the coin cover website. I was like this. I'm like doom scrolling in bed. Like this does not inspire confidence. It's a, I don't know. And then like some 3rd party, like company that doesn't, I don't know. So you need two out of three in order to get your hold on it.

And like, yeah, it's, well, that seems legit. Nothing to see here folks. Just keep your net worth on a ledger and you'll just sleep fine.

Like we said, always use a hardware wallet.

Thank God, thank God. Thank God. Our ENS names are covered by a multi-sig boys. Thank God alpha alpha pod. Nothing can go wrong there.

Multi-sig boys, nothing can go wrong there.

Can I just say how much I love our community? I'm just like catching up on these.

These guys were having a grand old time.

These guys were having a grand old time. Basil says I've been watching Armand wave his hand at Eric to switch the cams. LMFA.

For Eric that's my dad. That's my dad.

We've been Eric. That's my dad. That's my dad. We've been drinking since 10 30.

And Jack keeps his 10 30. Jack keeps observing that. I have to pee very badly, which is absolutely correct.

Do you want to take a break before we get into?

Can I, can I, can I, can I go. Please, Armand can I go to the camp.

This is working to be safe. Camp. This is still blazed. I actually wish I was going to work under these conditions.

I wish I was, but I can't work under these conditions.

I wish I was, but I also mentioned that the third wallet is FTX wallet LLC. Don't can we worried?

Wait, can we worried? Can we light a joint in here?

Yeah, of course.

Let's, let's go to the bathroom. I didn't hear anything.

It was just, let's go to my fucking monitor. I'm going to the, if anyone did not pick up on this already, Nick is the landlord.

And, and, and it's legal in California. So my insurance policy allows.

I haven't smoked a joint since before I had a baby.

Oh, Hey Basil, uh, switch the cams for me.

We need, we need a little Steven. I have Pete twice, at least already. I feel for you, man. Oh my God.

By the way, can, can the chat hear the airplanes by the way? Cause like, uh, we live, we live pretty close to like a, uh, fly line, right. And I left, I left the moon roof open in the room and I'm wondering if anyone can hear it.

I love, I love, I don't think so.

Uh, right.

And I left of max. He's been on fire ledger.

You had one job, ledger job. Just be a hardware wallet. You literally just do that.

Like, would you literally just do that? Like, would you prefer that we just had like pure ignorance? Like this, I'm so safe.

And this, that like we sat here talking about it for 14 minutes. And it's like, no, none of us have any fucking idea.

Here's the brains have any fucking idea. All right. I'm gonna, I'm gonna fix it. Can I fix it while we take our little break. I got away. I don't know. I don't want to stop. Well, we, Stephen's already in the bathroom,

got a little break. I got away. I don't know.

I don't want to stop. No, no. That's not my bathroom.

Wait, I thought we're not doing the stop thing. That's absurd. No, no. We're not doing the stop thing.

I'm going to fix the planes and Eric's in the bathroom and I want to refill my drink. You'll see

I'm not fixed. The planes and Eric's here. And I want to refill...

I'm going to fix the.

You got any a three mil Z in's that's Six mill.

I got a six mill milligrams in and this is a perfect opportunity. Since. Eric isn't flipping the camera my way.

And this is my way. So are we going into some of the life topics then?

Yeah. So next we're going to talk about Karen AI. She made about 71 grand in her first week of having a chat AI. So we're going to talk about that next. Let's take a quick five minute break. We'll be back refill the glasses, get a drink, come back.

I have this like an existential feeling. I have this sick feeling that we got the whole thing wrong.

No, the existential feeling.

No, you're, you're being dramatic. I like you are being. Someone has to be dramatic. So dramatic, right? Everything's going to be fine. Why though? Or it or are you?

No, I wear your being... Someone has to be dramatic. So dramatic. Why though while they're ability exists to any degree whatsoever, then

the whole goddamn thing is done because the beauty of crypto is that they're there's just zero, like the, you can transfer all of your money by member, like you just have like 20 words and you just transfer all your money gone. And it's gone. And the person who offers the inferior product now has no funds in their product and nobody wants to buy their product. It's beautiful. It's a free market where people provide products and there's no ability to have some sort of regulatory capture to stick people into your shitty project, product where they're like, well, you could move your funds, but there's this like 98 day waiting period and you gotta like download this other thing and then you get a file that you get a fax in this paper to move your funds. Cause it doesn't exist.

You just, you just in your gone, in your gone, These keys, these keys that are stored on this fucking hardware. Stored on this, what's stopping it from being like, how does this, you don't, you don't, you're not technical enough to answer this like how does this like what are the question? I'll tell you what are the alternatives?

Like, where else, how else that is still offline.

Like, what are the question?

I'll tell you if I can, what is there any way to store keys offline without interaction to any degree, like with software? Look, this is a very, I'm sorry. I'm just, I think that's what I would ask. Like a, like, like some, an expert right now, that would be the exact question. It'd be like, just start the conversation there. Like how, how does that work?

Like, is there any way there are ways to do social recovery? Like we've talked about. That's true.

The count abstractions, like, to move with account abstractions, like that's a different realm.

That's not the same thing as the problem with ledger isn't that they're using a way of private key recovery that people didn't opt into. The problem is they're just porting it on top of an existing sort of infrastructure that people thought was hard and set fact, it couldn't be modified. And they're like, well actually, it turns out that we can, we could just, we can just push a software update through and this thing that you thought was just like fortress of solitude that you could just hide behind. Well, actually we could just, we had these repairmen. They just go in and change your doorbell, and we'd just ring your doorbell and

your, bring your doorbell and your whole house is gone.

Literally, that's what I'm saying, dude, that's what I'm saying, That's what I'm saying, that's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying, the problem isn't that these things exist. The problem is that like people opt-in to a company, they opt-in to a piece of hardware thinking that they're, they're going into the sort of they're they're on the bunker squad. They are the they're the team that like-

centralized exchange in general versus hardware wallet. Like you ultimately are still like it's, you're the problem with problem. Isn't it worse? You trust lenturized exchange that is way more in bed with the government versus like a company Like Ledger.

Okay. The problem with the problem, Isn't it worse. No, no, no, no the problem,

Okay. If Ledger did this and they shipped a completely new hardware device and they said your old hardware device can't opt-in to this because of the hardware. We're like, we could, there's obviously, there's no way we could just push them firmware update that lets your hardware do this, but we're, here's a new device. People will be like, Oh, that's cool. I can buy the, I have no fucking idea what I'm doing device and I need my handheld or I can have my device. That's like this brick wall. And instead they were like, Oh, Hey, you know, that device you've been using for like seven years, uh, here's the software update. Well, you don't have to opt into it, but if you just click this green check mark box, then we just get your seed for it. People were like, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, wait, wait. That was, that was possible. That's kind of weird. That's where they went wrong.

You got to give Eric, I think it was what I was saying. Get to give Eric your mic. Do you want your mic back here? I'm going to go do what you guys did.

Well, Steven's not going to be fine.

Take a biological break. Wait, you've had to do this the whole time. I've been here. I've been with the people. Okay. Oh, I'm not here by choice.

I don't want to do this the whole time. Okay. I'm not here by choice. Everyone told me to sit here. But if you need a break, Eric, what I would like

angle changing, but what I would like is I'd like you to start the conversation about Karen. And when I reenter the room, I want it to be at like peak sexuality. Is that cause you're blue? Cause like, that's like where I thrive and I would like it to be there when I

read that angle change, let the record show that our mom thrives at peak sexuality. Wow. So on that note, we're trying to do this thing now where we don't, uh, we don't have a break between the, uh, segments. So I guess eventually we're going to go into just, we're just doing one thing.

That's fine, but like to not do a break is sort of absurd broadly. Like it's four hours.

I agree as well. Like there were, there were individuals in the chat who were commenting about how badly I had to pee. And that made me realize that I did indeed have to pee.

We all know. Like we, you have taken breaks when we're doing one hour podcast.

So I feel like my bladder is usually pretty good, but then it just, it's a capacity point, man.

It's, it's, they gave me a, so they gave me a, you gave me a six milligrams in

pouch Zheng Oh, I want the chat to follow. I'm already hiccuping. I wanna see if, if, uh, Eric has to spit into his cup here.

I'm hiccuping, dude. Is everyone get hiccups as her that's from the alcohol.

No, that's from, this is in pouch, that's from the alcohol.

I'm thinking a break.

I forgot. What are we talking about? For the life segment? We're gonna talk about Kim and II.

We're going to talk about Karen AI. Oh, we get a lot. We got as barred and we get, Oh, you get to grind, Mike your segment, don't you? Oh wow.

This is a bunch of get to grind.

Stuff in here. I'm glad we have these notes actually, because I have zero short term or midterm.

I think the whole chat might be surprised to hear that.

Uh, yeah, the whole town, we have notes.

Yeah, the whole town. We have notes. I don't think they'd be surprised at all.

The whole town knows you have no memory. Let's, let's, uh, I don't know. Fuck. I can't stop hiccuping. How do you know it's Zen? Because when I put it in, I start hiccuping.

Oh man. I think, um, thanks bandit for the comment. We were, we were, uh, going to be pretty insecure if we put up these little pads and no one commented.

No, I know. I need, I need some positive reinforcement from bandit right now. What do you say?

He just said, nice setting.

Nice panels. No, no, not now. Just no, but he was talking about the panels. I know he is. I know bandit. I know, man. I like the back of my hand. All right.

No, no, not now.

No, but he's talking, well, let's transition into the next segment. We're going to do a hard left turn from talking about the intricacies of eth tokenomics. We were just at a baseball game and you, Eric informed me that the MLB was considering getting rid of umpires and just having a computer call balls and strikes to absolute digital perfection. And I wasn't sure how I felt about this actually. And you seem to have some opinions. So I want to kick that over to you. How do you feel about having baseball governed by a computer? And what are the broader implications for society?

So I know we have some baseball fans in our audience. Decotch it's peak sexuality. No, no, we weren't the opposite direction deal with it. So decotch, I know is a Detroit Tigers fan. I know we have some other baseball fans in our audience. Like what what I know for a fact is that baseball is changing their rules to suit fans, right? So they've already done a couple of rule changes. One is implementing a pitch clock, which you guys were the beneficiaries of today. Like the game went faster today. Right.

Yeah, we were in the opposite direction.

You know, the day was long and it would have been longer.

By the way, I, by the way, I, I enjoyed the pitch clock. It was noticeably faster.

Yeah. Like the game went fast. Like we all recognize as like, oh, shit. We're in the third or fourth inning. As we said it, we're like, this game is going by fast. That's, that's a positive change. I would, I would assume you guys all agree. Okay. So the next change that they're looking at implementing is the robo umpire, which I, which I believe to be like a immense positive. This, this is going to be, um, revolutionary in that, like we, we all sort of like the human element of gamesmanship and that exists between the players, the pitcher and the hitter. We don't want that the human element to come in with like a third party. Like let's just play the game as it's intended.

Let's let the players play. Wait, can I ask you a more difficult example?

How would you feel if the NBA playoffs and all of the fouls were governed by a computer?

I mean, the, like many of them are because there are, there is the ability to challenge calls now. Some of them, yes. But, and like within two minutes, they can like, they can, uh, go to the, to the instant replay to see if a ball was out of bounds off of one team or another. So like, they're already implementing that. And I think that improves the game, um, that improves like the, the product itself, um, whether that improves, like your watchability is open to interpretation because like maybe you, you don't like that. They took an extra 45 seconds to look at the call.

Baseball's great. It is America's past time. It is a sport that I hope never, um, loses its, uh, sort of like a connection to the American culture. I think it's a beautiful thing. And yet at the same time, compared to other sports, like pickleball, uh, sport air quotes has way more attention. I couldn't believe it this weekend. I'm not even going to troll. I couldn't believe it this weekend. Pickleball was on ESPN. I was blown away. I couldn't believe it was ESPN one or two. And it was like a whole match.

I mean, I, I can believe that.

Like if you were like, if you were like, that's ridiculous. Yeah. No, that's right.

Yeah. No, that's ridiculous.

Like the guy was like, in 1971, you were like, there was a boxing match on the television.

I'm on, I'm on your, I'm on, I'm on Steven's tip on this where it's like, so I don't care about pickleball. Like this is a sports network and mostly what they show is talking. Like let's show some sports.

Like Oh, from that regard, like there was something wide, but there's some really exciting sports out there at a college level, at a high school level.

Like there was something wide, but dude, but not happening at like 1 p.m. On a Thursday.

No, there was always stuff happen happening. No, they chose to show pickleball on premier Pico level.

I'll give pickle ball spending the show.

I'll give me balls in credit because Pickle Ball, you know, particularly the singles is an athletic feat singles as athletic.

How do I make money up pickleball?

How do I make money up pickleball by any sort of like e-comm company domain names related? I feel like the best pass of play is like domain names.

So our, so our, our mutual friend Justin try to bid 1.2 million on

pickleball.com lost, lost, lost, lost, lost it. I mean, what about Dottie? If Justin got pickleball.com for 1.2 million, I would have said that's like the biggest joke of a steal of all time. Yeah, that's, that's like, I would too. Like you're you get like, what is a multi-billion dollar industry domain name for a million.

I mean, that's, that's, I think a better, how about like passive play is like turning worthless commercial real estate that we're all finding to be worthless into like, what if I said tennis courts?

Would it hurt you? If I said tennis courts, would it hurt you?

No, I'm only saying to take like an 11th floor empty. Yeah.

I think that yeah. We need to turn unproductive real estate into productive. So like whether it's not coming back because like if, if people aren't going back to the office, we need to turn that back into something like you turn that either into housing, which is, is difficult because I've talked to like commercial real estate guys who say like, Okay, so we'll convert this, but it's like, it's fucking hard and it's expensive. And like, maybe the economics don't exist, but if all you need to do is just like lay down a flat floor and like put some nets up that are fucking free, essentially. Like that makes sense to me. And I think you turn unproductive real estate into productive. And that's great idea.

We need to turn, turn that back into something max.

So I think it's great idea. Yeah. Like, and you can never do this with tennis, right? Like you couldn't just be like, well, we're going to put a as court in the mill as bed, back in be on.

Like, you couldn't just, like, you couldn't just be like, Oh, we're going to put a bed bath in beyond because with tennis, you can, you can well with Pickle, you can hit lob shots too.

You need it too, but like there's an element of the pickle ball. People who are like, oh, yeah, you just throw some lines in the floor and they roll one edit and we're good to go.

I think with tents, I think with tennis, like the demand is not there necessarily. Like pickle ball has all of the demands.

All of the people aren't like itching to go into a abandoned bed bath and beyond and play a game.

I mean, I told you guys, I told you guys, right? Like when I went to the place that Steven and I play and I got smoked by two

65 year old women, like they smoked me. Okay. So this is like, I don't want to go down this other path of like talking to him laughed at me. Remember the conversation.

They laughed at me. You remember the conversation part that hurt the most.

They were like, remember the conversation by the guy who said, the guy who said like, I want my sports to include a physical element like, he got so much backlash, you know, he said it in a harsher way. He was like, he said, like, I don't want him.

I mean, the guy was right, but I, I agree with him, like I mean, the guy was right.

First of all, those are big words for a man who can't even win a sprint.

Whoa.

Hey now, can't win a sprint, can't win a sprint, who didn't participate, who provided the

entertainment, who doesn't want a sprint against me. I have a bad foot. I'm basically, I could get a hand. Can we call it on your shoes?

Can we call it on your shoes? The chat is very obsessed with your shoes.

Sounds like an easy win to me. Orthopaedic coco one ones, but you can go fuck yourself.

I mean, so I've seen, I've seen elderly caddies wear Hoka's. I've seen a big walkers.

Well, Hoka's I've never seen a podcaster where, look, look, I don't even know what a Hoka is. I totally agree.

It's not in my realm. It's not in my fashion.

Like, this is my, like if Armand loses a sprint to a man who wears orthopedic shoes, like this is a situation. First of all, arm on, scratching.

And COURTIN. I open to a five time stress this. Yeah, come on, and honestly,

those who are

this. It's hard.

That was very humble if we get it, even before we like we get into the main topic for today, I have a grip that I want to bring up to people and it came to me again. We were at the baseball stadium. And I ordered a Mexican hotdog, would you like your Hotdog wrapped in bacon? I was like, of course I would. What kind of person am I, like, would you like your Hotdog covered in cilantro and onion and salsa and mayonaise? Yes, yes.

All of the above and you don't have the genetic mutation against cilantro?

No, I don't have that. Okay. I don't have that. Okay.

I don't have that. God. I know some people that would like vomit. I do just hear the word. I do as well.

Hear the word. I do as well, but then they are still listening to this podcast. Anyway, this guy, he, he brings me up $19 for this hotdog after tax. I'm like, okay, but then there's a $19 hotdog, $19 hotdog turns around, grabs the pre-made hotdog off the rack in a box, hands it to me and it's like, there you go, if you'd like to, there's a little option to add a little extra there.

And it just like, oh my God, 20% tip. Oh my God, Steven, how much you tip him?

I tipped him, I tipped him 20% because I succumbed. He was like, looking at me like it's peer pressure.

Wait, wait, is this a segue? It's peer pressure.

Wait, this is segue. Yes.

Yes. The fact that you don't know it's a segue means it was an unbelievable segue. I got it. Okay. That's up to us by the way. I was just like, like this guy turned around, grabbed a pre-made hotdog off the rack, handed it to me, looked at me like, was like, would you like to, you know, just if you, if you're comfortable with it, whatever, don't worry about it.

And it's just like, so he eyeball pressure. Yeah.

Yeah. And just like the amount is like 20 or like add custom. Like, what am I going to do? Click the button and then just like typed in the cut. You're just like, God damn it. And you just walk away. But I was thinking about it. Like there was a time where I would go to a, like I did a three hour dinner and the waiter comes up, he talks to you, he gets to knows you. He makes recommendations, things happen. He brings food. He's like, I'll preemptively like that. Food's not right.

This is the problem, by the way, the swivel iPad would you like to tip 13?

You're just like, God damn it.

Just like 20%. That was a good tip.

None of it himself.

He didn't, I have somebody grinds my gears, things here. I, they like for me is like, when they're like the base one is like 25, they're like 25 or custom. I just go like, no, you get zero. Fuck you. You think I'm going to like, take the time.

So are you, are you the zero guy?

Because I, I don't have, have your baseline amount at like 25 and custom thinking like, I'm going to be like, Oh, I don't want to take the time to enter the custom. I just go zero.

But when they go like 15, 20, 25, I go your baseline.

Oh, I think those, uh, casual encounters, uh, like, I think there's a, there's a pretty good rule to use, which is like, if you use them often, if it's a coffee shop, you go to like a few times a week, if it's the place that you frequent, like, yeah, tip your barista, tip your like person. That's part of your life with you.

And I don't like cash, but in this situation, I'm a huge cash fan. So I never care cash, but I try to remind myself. So first of all, I buy, I get, I buy, I get $2 bills from chase. What? Yes. Why? Because they're fun to give to people. They're very fun. This is Persian. This is a Persian thing. I don't know if it's Persian, uh, old man.

This is a Persian thing.

It's so old, man. Arman like he's his hand $2, builds to like children $2 bills.

I'm on like he's get his hand $2 bills to like children, $2 bills people.

It's cash in their hand and they love it. And uh, and then they get to pay it forward. So it's like, they get to make someone else's day. There's something about the $2 bill that is like. Make someone's day. Yeah. So what I like to do is keep twos on me and give cash to the baristas and the donut person and the whatever, you know, kind of like person that's doing the, especially like carwash, like carwash is like, Oh, thanks for, you know, stroking my wheels, you know, real quick for five seconds. It's like, here's, here's a couple twos. I think it's much better than just like, um, pushing a 18% button on, on a pad. So whenever possible, I try to carry cash. I'm actually in the market for a money clip. Yeah, I'm in the market.

I'm seeing which one I like all the same, all the same. Do you guys remember that?

Do you guys remember that Louis CK skit where he like is like a cowboy walking in the bar and he goes up to the bartender. He's like, I need food for my horse. obroom, a beer, a woman, and he just takes a coin and goes ten and just flips some like ambiguous amount of coin his way would cover it all. And it's like, I wish we could go back to those days where we just flip some ambiguous amount of like cash his way like that should cover it. And you get all those things. It'd be so nice.

It was better who's like, Lou, Louis, CK love, and he just takes a coin his wave as it's like that would cover it all.

I need food for my horse. A beer for myself. Yeah, a drink for my woman. A room for three nights.

Oh, but it really was that equal. All right. Can we talk about who's making some real coin now? Yeah.

The door's making some real news on the record with tipping. But it's fine. It's fine. We'll have really skipped right over that. I don't approve of this way. Let that let the record. Yeah, I got more to say about the ticket. I feel like Eric didn't even get to run, little rip.

And we'll have it.

Will we really skip right over that?

Yeah, I want to come on little rip. Well I didn't either. Let's start on the tip.

I didn't either.

Is there a principle or. We rescinded.

They're a principle or. Rescended.

More say more segue rescinded block block veto. That's what happens when you make a bad segue. I'll be doing that immediately. Okay. So here's the thing. 20% tip is industry standard, but for what, okay, for what? That's like for effort put forth. Like, that's for like, like you said, like a night's worth of like you treating me to service. What if the service is you give me an overpriced hot dog from the back? Like that's not 20% worthy. That's like, uh, that's like, that's a nothing where you go. No tip.

You go no tip bartenders always get 20% minimum. No.

No false, false education, no. That's a dollar per dream away.

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Super, controversial. The same on a bartender twisting a bud light cap off over.

You know, that dollar per hour, like on that dollar per hour. Are you kidding me? I intentionally over tip the bartenders. Yeah.

They make the most money. You tip the same on a bartender handing you a bud light versus

making you an old fashioned money because I might be back and like, you know, that's ridiculous. I'm building.

We're predicting. I'm building rapport. That's ridiculous. Here's the thing. Here's where I do this man. Here's where I'm with Nick. Over tipping, but tipping the same amount just is it doesn't make it is logically inconsistent.

Bingo.

Here's the thing. Here's where I'm with this man.

Here's where I'm with Nafer Bingo. Here's, here's where I'm with Nick with tipping in general, if you're, if you're generally in a place where you have the opportunity to, and I'm not just saying this to say it. I honestly mean this. If you're in a place where you have the opportunity to tip somebody who most of their income obviously comes from tips, there's a difference, right? There's certain establishments that you might enter where the, the, the, the little, uh, pad is being turned to you. And you know that it's just, it's like, you could be at like a florist shop these days and they'll turn the pad to you and you just bought some flowers and it'll, it'll ask you like, do you want a tip? I think that's entirely different. But if you're in a place where, you know, that the majority of this person's income is from tips and that they're earning close to minimum wage, if not minimum wage, I like to tip a lot. And I think you're all saying the same thing. I'm not saying you're not saying that. I completely am in a place where I'm like, this is my opportunity to give back. I think this is exciting.

It's just, but also the, the average, I'm not saying you're not, but also the,

the average order value, order value, actual, like the average, like the

average order value, the good, like, I get the, the, the AOV is higher. I get it. And there's so does that work out?

doesn't that work out? Like doesn't it actually kind of like, I don't think so because it's like, you could...

I don't think so because it's like, you could get, you can get overcharged for the hot dog and then that AOV is... Stupidly high and then you shouldn't be tipping high on that AOV...

Stupidly high and then that brings up a good point, like, the people who are really benefiting from this are the employers, because like at the end of the day, you'd sit down with your employer. Like, well, yes, I paid you this much, but you also earned this much in tips. Here's your effective salary. Like, how

does... Do all the digital tips go into a pool and get shared by all the people that were working that day? Proof of tips.

I've worked service, so... What happens at the bar typically is the bar team gets tipped out on bar tips and then the restaurant team gets tipped out on restaurant tips and the bar guys get paid way more at the end of the night than the restaurant

team, despite having done way less work typically. And not having to smile and kiss his ass as much.

Right, like not having to do much service.

Like, you know, you pop a bottle here. But is that correct?

It all gets pulled together, the digital and the physical, and then it just gets spread out. You know Loves Are The Best and I have a payment processing company is the payment processing company.

So you just get a little more a tech that I I agree with. Ok, so Danny Meyer, he's like a restaurateur, you wrote you wrote an awesome book, I can't remember, then it's called Setting the Table. This book I loved, OK, there's there's alpha in this book. We don't even have to get into it right now. But like he as a restaurateur of like several Michelin star restaurants, he says he's like, I don't want my patrons to be in control of my employees wages. He's like, I want to be in control of those. So he so what is it? So on the menu on the menu, he says don't tip. I pay my employees a living wage. There are mostly in New York, but it's like Gramercy Tavern. So rare. It's it's very rare.

And that's why he's like so good at what he's on the menu.

On the menu, he says, don't tip.

Where's the living wage?

But he's like breaking the thing about being in New York in general, being in the U.S. is like when the Europeans show up, the American wage staff can't stand it. So like it's like these people don't tip.

So in Austin, Austin to the American wage staff can't stand it. So like in Austin, Austin, Texas holds a Formula One race every example. And Formula One is very much a European sport. So you're flooded with like a hundred thousand plus Europeans. And they just you would think they would love it. The city's busy, pack bars, restaurants pack. They hate it because the the paisans don't work longer.

They don't tip every example.

Paisans don't work longer. They don't tip. Yeah, the best they're getting is 10%.

I will say, I will say as a consumer traveling to Japan, it was nice to know

that just like you don't tip and it's just you don't tip. And it's just it's like a more like clear sound experience to just know like this

is the price. But if I was at that New York restaurant, there would just be this like anxiousness feeling that like he says don't tip. But like, you probably should.

So I asked for sex like 30 minutes ago. I still haven't gotten there. So there's this chick. OK, we're just please segue accepted. Sustained, sustained, sustained. Can we talk about Karen? Karen's my girl. So Karen, I was getting into the app chat influencer and she she's not an OnlyFans girl. She's a Snapchat influencer. And what she did was ingenious.

Accepted, sustained,

sustained. Talk about just just Karen.

I was getting into the app chat influencer.

She got the help she needed. It's ingenious, a real word. Have you changed the channel at all since you did? Did you just ask me even genius is a real word.

Yeah. Word there. Well, I know that's just because it's just so happens to be

Eric is judging your Eric is judging your that I have been switching the camera angle. Thank you.

Let us know.

Camera angles. Let us know. Let us know. The even questioned in genius. Let us know. She's a word like.

Let us know.

She said a word like irregardless.

It's a real word continues to do.

Genius and ingenious. Clever. Ingenius is more like clever. So genius, but even more so. No, no, not the same. Different. It's like ingenuity and genius. Exactly. Thank you. Let's move on.

OK, so I say that she is genius, but even more so engineer. Let's move on.

OK, so I say either she has a great team or she on her own. I would love to have her on Karen. Wonderful, beautiful human being. Love to have you on. She decided to create a chatbot of herself and all of her content loaded up to it appears to just be a sort of like GPT for rendition of her. So like similar to like if you were to go and interact with like if you guys have seen like the Huberman bots or any of these or Steno is coming out with our own chatbot where you can interact with like these various episodes. Or yeah, post specific episodes and come talk to the Alfalfa podcast. Like you're going to be able to do that soon. And in the same way, you can do that with Karen. And Karen is someone who has uploaded her content and herself to the point where her fans can go and interact with her. And not only was it successful, but it was successful to the point where she took her entire following and let them know that this was available. And actually is at the point right now on this episode right now, why I just went to her website and I opted in and she's got some good marketers behind her because you know what, Nick, you know what it says.

It's fascinating, man, like there's a podcast or podcast, there's a fascinating man like what is happening, what is happening? So if let's say you're an incel type of her following, you follow her, you're enamored by her and you DM her. She says she gets anywhere from like hundreds of direct messages to tens of thousands of direct messages, depending on what she posts. You know, like ninety nine percent of those people are not getting a response. So for a dollar a minute, are you getting a response? Are you not only getting a response, you're getting a one on one message. And so it is Karen A.I. that different from real Karen. Well, it was trained with two thousand hours of her YouTube videos. So it is trained on a pretty good set. It uses GBT for so it's it's a it's a interface that we're used to. My question is, like most of these guys probably just want to like text dirty things to her and have her text dirty things back.

I talk talking about certain topics, getting her from real care topics. I don't think research on this.

No, I don't. No, I have not done deep research on this. But I don't think that GBT for his limits are sort of like a part of the equation when it comes to Karen.

When just using the when just using the API. Correct. Yeah.

Like I'm going to introduce my own training data, giving you the content correct. Yeah, like I'm going to introduce my own training data, giving you the content ultimately. So I'm completely just pulling this out of my ass, but if your question is like, if I were to ask Karen, like, do you like Buttsex and she to say she's her worst. So what would chat you? What what would what would chat you?

She's her worst. I'm a large language model and not comment on. But's.

I Oh, well with Karen.

What would Karen say?

Karen would say,

I would be like that

Karen would it depends on the size of your.

Yes, exactly. All depends on the size of your control.

So you're all the cell? No, seriously, what would dedicate?

I would say it depends on the size of your penis depends. So did she say that and then the guy would say, well, like, you know, I mean, here's my dick, you know, here's my here's my dick pic and have a conversation like

they can have that, but like they can have that pay for it. And it would be exhilarating the price.

She's still already she's still already. She's charging a dollar a minute, which to me sounds exorbitant. Like it sounds like old school.

How much how much does the cam stuff cost?

I don't know, like I don't know. I think the way the can stuff works is like you buy tokens and then you use those

tokens, great business model, by the way, but like we can.

But like Andrew Tate's business model. Let's not what's wrong with him.

Everything.

What's wrong with him? Everything. OK, fine.

I'm just saying. All right. Anyway, but like, I think that it's kind of like those old like pay per call, like pay by the minute type things, 100 numbers, 100s. That business model is so far away from perfect competition. It will. They're really good. The margins will go down for sure.

Right. Like 100 numbers, 100s.

That right.

Like. And so I just find it fascinating

that she's the first and maybe she think about it like that's a perfect little comp there, like the fact that the 900 numbers were ever a thing to begin with and the fact that they made so much money for so many years. Why wouldn't this? OK, obviously it would and it's going to be a huge industry. I have a thought. Please go. But Karen, I to me is nothing more than the beachhead from a business perspective to what the new world of sex looks like. We are just beginning to see what is possible and we are going to be blown away by the current eyes that do things like just talk to you, show you images. OK, here's another example. Like Karen, I soon will have the ability to auto generate an image for you to your liking obviously. I mean, if we can get graphic, I think we can

except the finger, except the fingers and the feet, they won't come out good. OK, so if you say you're into that.

So if you say the Karen, you're into that, great. Show me what it would look like for this or that to happen. And she can generate it. Why wouldn't you pay for that? It's her and it's you. You can upload a photo and say generate an image of what it looks. Generate a video. Generated video of us having sex, generated a video of us. OK, now let's go a little bit more forward, even to the point where I integrate my VR headset into the whole equation and now I'm having sex with this fantasy girl that I've known since high school and I've always wanted to have sex with and I get to tell her to say what I want her to say. I've wanted her to say this my whole life do what I wanted her to do my whole life. Give whatever I've ever wanted here to give to me my whole life. I would pay incredible amount of money, like incredible amounts of money to do these things.