27. Dollar Milkshake Theory, Huge Crypto Legislation, and the “Tinder Effect” on Sex - Transcripts

June 09, 2022

  • Favorite
  • Share

Welcome to the alfalfa podcast 🌾

Check out Collective Shift for crypto insights and alerts, free trial available now and use code ALFALFA at checkout for 50% off your first month.

Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(03:22) - The Alfalfa Round
(11:07) - Talking about investing & Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake Theory
(44:14) - US Crypto Legislation
(55:46) - Talking about the Tinder Effect & some Tinder stats, Is Tinder Good or Bad for dating?

Follow the podcast:

  • Our website with all links
  • Discord
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Transcripts of all episodes

Follow the hosts:
Arman Assadi aka Krypto Kabob
Eric Johanson aka Crypto CFA
Nick Urbani aka Talipino
Stephen Cesaro aka DeFi Diva

Music by: Allie Gross x KOCH

Disclaimer:
This is not Financial Advice. All opinions expressed by the podcast, members of the podcast, its guests, and its representatives are intended for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers' specific circumstances. Alfalfa and its representatives are not liable to the listener/viewer or any other party, for the listener/viewer’s use of, or reliance on, any information received, directly or indirectly, from this media. The listener/viewer should always conduct their own research and obtain independent legal, financial, taxation and/or other professional advice in respect of any decision made in connection with this media.

Furthermore, any views or opinions represented on this show by hosts or guests are 100% personal and belong solely to the show and do not represent those of people, institutions, organizations the owners may or may not be associated with in a professional or personal capacity unless explicitly stated. Any views or opinions are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, or individual. 

Transcript

Welcome. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome Degen's and DJ nets to another episode of the Alfalfa podcasts. We are four radically moderate entrepreneurs and investors serving up alpha and investing politics in life. We are nick or Bonnie steven, Cesaro, eric Johanson and I'm Armani Asadi. All links to everything, all the good stuff at alfalfa pod dot com and of course make sure to subscribe wherever you are listening or watching on Youtube and hop in our discord because it is absolutely on fire right now. It's been an amazing weekend there and join us in the conversation as we swim in the messy gray ocean of I don't quite know the answer because sometimes that truth is somewhere in the middle Cheers Boys. episode 27

cheers. I'm not even listening to you guys, I'm just checking out the discord.

Discord is

hanging out with those guys. They're a lot smarter than you guys.

So the discord, it was their idea. It was like the, the listeners idea to, to start intros channel, so we get to know everybody better and the intros are so fun. Yeah, they really are. People got some good origin stories here. We have a Teletubby in our discord that yeah, I don't think I've seen that one yet.

Starstruck. Yeah, exactly.

So 11 of the, one of the members of our community like was the voice of a Teletubby, That's what you're telling me. I didn't have any voices, but he he did the dance. Oh God, I need to, Okay, that's amazing celebrity, assuming I'm assuming it's the guy with Tinky winky and laser eyes. This is avatar, correct Yeah, I'm really good at my deductive reasoning, yep. So we got an intros channel now, uh, we're, we're having some, some debate ongoing about multi channel versus uh, keeping it, uh, minimalism style. We have a minimalism maxi in the discord. So it's been a lot of fun. Um, if you're not already in their head to our website, the link is there, it's an absolutely amazing time. I think it's just been so many interesting comments, but one of them, for example, was like tuning into the podcast is like having my dinner or my dessert and then, you know, hopping into the discord is like going to the bar afterwards and talking and chit chatting about whatever it might be guns or porn from the last episode or Real Estate and crypto, which was happening today. And I gotta catch up. So the agenda today, as always, we'll kick off with our alpha alfalfa fire around talking about our moves, talking about our trades, not many on my end lately, then we'll dive into the investing segment today. We're gonna be talking about dollar milkshake theory, which has been a hot topic for a while, but I think it's become a little bit more relevant than for policy.

Obviously there was huge crypto legislation yesterday. We're recording this on june 8th 2022 we'll wrap it up with something super spicy, very interesting, what we're calling the Tinder effect. We're basically going to look at what the fuss is happening in the dating world and why a lot of uh dudes seem to be struggling. I'll just tease it and leave it at that and we'll come back around to it. So um alfalfa around nick you wanna kick it off?

Yeah sure. So um made a few trades I guess more like scalps, one trade is going on. So I I've been like uh playing with going uh leverage short on Selena throughout this whole dip, I've been in and out of it and I got in again around like 42, I don't know where it's at, somewhere around 39. So I went five x short on salon around there. Um so it's still ongoing, we'll see where it goes from there and I feel pretty good about it. Tell you what um and then

uh

I got um in and out of some july expiration Q. Q. Q. Puts last week. So I think I was in on the second, got out on the third and uh you know, I I've been scalping these and you know, just to be clear like I'm net still losing money so the whole reason to do this is to you know hedge against my my larger portfolio. So I'm losing using a very small amount of money to hedge. So you know my my overall portfolio, stock portfolio was was down. Um and this helped hedge. I wasn't down as much as I would have been if I didn't hedge. So I'm gonna continue to kind of like dip in and try to get some uh further out expirations. Um So I don't have to like watch these as closely and then I did pass on a few of those uh real estate deals, we've been talking about the discord um just overall prepping to be more liquid over the next 2 to 3 months. So that's kind of um what I've been looking at last week,

interesting eric you want a general, Yeah, I haven't made any trades um because I've been doing all this wedding planning man, this is, this has taken so much of my time. Um I did see that,

I think

it's speculated that the hop Airdrop is coming out tomorrow. Um So that will be another thing for me to dump. So do you dump the whole thing? Like did you dump all of optimism? I forgot. No, I always, I always dump 80% like pretty soon, like maybe I'll dump 50% right away and then I kind of wait for like a little scam pump and then I dump all the way up to 80% and then I just, I hold 20% kind of forever because I I actually am bullish optimism hot protocol, Like you know, these are things that like 10 years down the road, you might, you might just like have and be like Holy Sh it we got that for free and it's like worth a lot you know

aren't you glad you joined this optimistic podcast? We have

five short

buying puts and dumping free air drops so

welcome

steven

you go and I'll wrap up. Yeah I mean I've been trying to sit on my hands as much as possible. I mean we're basically range bound in the market right now so it's that kind of environment where you can really get chopped up a lot if you if you don't know what you're doing and even if you do it's been like the Bitcoin scam pumps up and down has been pretty crazy. I've just been kind of trading this range Bitcoin is in, it's been very Almost too easy just by 29 and like sell 31 over and over again. Um I'm expecting to break out of that at some point maybe when volatility reduces a little more like get ready for a move. The the other thing I did this week that I think is kind of interesting is I actually made another defi play again for the first time in forever. Although the yield is already down quite a bit. But I I borrowed some link and uni tokens against my stable coins and I bought the G. M. X. G. L.

P. Pool G. M. X. Is a decentralized trading platform on on our Bertram and a vax. Um So by doing this you're you're kind of like half shorting the tokens And then you're getting a, well when I did it you were getting a 30% yield. Um it's down now to 25%, but like 9% of that yield is actually paid in ethereum, which is pretty interesting. I think so. I think it's kind of like a fun play during a bear market because it's like kind of a short play, it's kind of like a yield play. Uh do your own research, Don't put all your money in this, please. Um But yeah, that's that's what I did this week. A pick.

Um can I just say? And this might actually be some Alfalfa is like how much better we sound you guys microphones, like we upgraded all of our microphones finally, although we weren't getting that many complaints, I was like, oh this sounds terrible a couple of our microphones but we sound way better. Microphone is literally 10, 10 x the cost of the previous one. So I actually, for anyone that's in the podcasting, this is like um the Alfalfa here is that I think this is the best pro USB microphone in the Shure MV seven and so it doesn't require that crazy XLR connection going to an audio interface, but it actually also has it, so you optionally have both. It's basically the joe Rogan microphone, but in U. S. B optional format. It's almost at that, at that level, I would call it 90% as good as the as the XLR Rogan and um outside of that I picked up the that I've been eyeing for quite some time. I went down the rabbit hole of amazon. Very. I'm pleased. My bubble is not my, not yet pleased.

TBD um let me see if I can pull up the exact model is like one of the $15 ad on ones or did you go full like $500? I I didn't go full toilet because I don't own this place. And Toto makes like Toto literally makes $1000 seat. I think that you can just put it on. It's like the yeah yeah my algorithm didn't thought about buying it many times. But no no no no I have I have not. It's on the way literally just pulled the trigger. I was using it. No no no the wipes. The wipes will do you gotta use two or three but I'm grossing myself out. But the actual, it's a lot the actual today is called the luxe bidet Neo 3 20 plus and I'll drop it in the discord and it's brand new. It just came out and it's from a brand that already was doing like amazing stuff.

So the main reason I went with this one and here's the alfalfa. After I went through every single review of these attachment add on beds. The main the main complaint that people had was cold water. I mean no one wants cold water on their bum hole. So your warm water baby temperature control. And it's only 66, So I

am very

Excited. I was like, that's worth another $50. You know why not for sure. I didn't know that was an option. Thank you. Yeah. Well yeah, you probably should tough times in the markets these days are the alpha is the days and microphones because I was like, if I don't say that, I got, I got nothing like literally I got nothing. Um, I stared at the chart and cried. I wept. Wish I had sold some of that optimism Airdrop. But you know what back to eric's point Phuket like I'll wake up in five years and look at that thing and probably be very pleased that I didn't and um, I'll keep the responsibility and get the money later. So let's uh, let's talk investing.

Um, nick this is an area that um, you're opening this up. Right? Dollar milkshake. Yeah. This is an area that I know you spent a lot of time investigating, looking at and it's a very fascinating um concept. So can you open the floor on this?

Yeah. So steven kind of introduced this to me a few weeks ago and I kind of like forced to dive in. It's, it's by this guy Brent johnson and you can definitely search his name and find um, other podcast where we talk about it and intros and whatnot. But the dollar milkshake name is is kind of you know around the idea that no matter what the country borders, it's a reference from a movie. But no matter what the country borders exist, the U. S. Is going to suck out all of the liquidity in the world because of the immense rise in the demand for dollars. And if you spent some time in the crypto world especially, I think you might start questioning what do you mean? The demand for dollars like the dollars being debased by the U. S. Government? The Federal Reserve inflation is running at at 40 40 year highs and it just feels like the dollar is is worth less than ever.

The main argument being that the well the supply is increasing so so the value will go down. And I think it's important to remember that currency markets always relative to to each other. So you know the best measure of the dollar is the D. X. Y. And that that is the dollar value against a basket of other other other currencies. And you are right that that money supply is increasing specifically measured by um I think M. Two. Um But the fact remains that the U. S. Is not the only supplier and buyer of U. S.

Dollars. And um this is where Brent johnson brings in the idea of the euro dollar market and we're not talking about euros, we're talking about us dollars that are sitting in foreign bank accounts um typically could be in foreign reserves or corporations and international banks and where this really comes into play is the size of the euro dollar market. Yeah. I try to find some comparisons to the euro dollar market to M. Two. But I think my my base case kind of like a market size that it's 4 to 5 X. What you would consider em to size B. So the federals our balance sheet. And so you have this tremendous demand because of the size of the U. S. Dollar market for us dollars. Because well europe needs to go buy oil from Saudi in dollars, china, needs to go buy raw materials from Australia in dollars.

And well there's a lot of us denominated debt that that needs to pay off. And so a lot of countries don't really have a choice where you know what they use to to to purchase things in. They need dollars for trade, they needed for their reserves and they need it for dollar denominated debt. And so you have this like global demand for us dollars going up even though we've been printing so much because the euro dollar market is so large. And so where the global economy risk and I think this is a lot of what we'll talk about um in the in the global economy comes in is because the U. S. Economy is fairly stable and we're increasing interest rates and foreign countries and economies are not doing so well. So if you have economic activity in these other countries slowing down, there's less dollars circulating around those countries. And so you can see how this turns into a vicious cycle less dollars around because the these other countries economy decreases so there's lower supply but still demand. These countries need the dollar because they need to pay debt and dollars. They need to pay goods for dollars. So they end up printing a lot of their own currency in order to trade for the more expensive dollar which increases the dollar value even more.

And this this like vicious cycle can can continue. So you might end up with if you take in the extreme scenario I guess like a sovereign bond or currency crisis. Um And so I think you know that's that's where it's probably a good place to stop and kind of like uh check in like that's the, I think the thesis around the um dollar milkshake theory, the US will will suck up a lot of liquidity that the U. S. Dollar will rise. And this whole effect has this vicious cycle that causes other countries to have to print more, which then increases the value of the dollar because the currency markets are all relative to each other.

So

I guess I'll stop there and just see like Stephen today miss anything or you know anything to add on.

Yeah I think that's pretty good overview. I think I think you can simplify a couple of things because like I I think the theory in general is actually pretty easy to visualize. So like the milkshake in this metaphor is liquidity right? So the idea is that all of the countries of the world basically are injecting liquidity into the system right? This is this is the milkshake by Q. E. And money printing. So there's all of this liquidity out there in the system. Now the US has a straw because the US is tightening now while all of these other areas areas of the world are easing, tightening sort of means that like we have we have higher interest rates here on our sovereign debt right? Like the 30 years over 5% now I think and the 10 years over three. So what happens is you're you're you're sitting on euros. Your country is basically printing money or your your your area is printing money, your interest rates like negative and you're like wait a minute why am I holding euros and getting negative 0.1% in in this bond.

I could just convert this $2. Buy treasuries get 3% and then I can buy this currency that's going up and then everybody sort of starts doing that. Those high interest rates like suck the liquidity from the system into the dollar system and that causes this kind of vicious feedback loop right? And then nick, you also mentioned other areas of dollar demand, Like the fact that like oil and a lot of these commodities are dollar denominated, You have to get dollars to buy these things. And the other thing I want to really stresses that there's we have we have tens of trillions of of of debt right in the U. S. Treasury, but there's also tens of trillions of us denominated debt that's issued by other countries in the world, right? So countries will issue dollar denominated debt because their currency maybe is not Super Trustworthy. So this entices people to actually buy the dollar denominated debt because it's perceived as being safer. But what this means is that there's this huge need I think in somewhere in the order of like $2 trillion dollars a year roughly of dollar demand just to finance the interest on all of these outstanding loans. Um So these are the larger forces that are at play right now. And and this is what we've seen play out in the market over the last six or seven months, right?

We've seen a precipitous rise in in the the dixie the D. X. Y. The dollar index, which is a measure of relative strength of the dollar versus all the other currencies in the world. Uh And and along with that we've seen this just complete destruction of uh of risk assets, right? And and for people who don't know, I mean crypto especially tends to be highly correlated on an inverse basis with the strength of the dollar when the dollar goes up historically. Bitcoin and other crypto especially tend to go down and when the dollar goes down these things tend to go up. So I know that we've all been sitting around and talking about like where do we go from here And what are the implications of this over the next, you know say 3-6 months and and and beyond. And what is this going to mean? Like if you're like a Bitcoin investor a crypto investor writ large because i it's just been my own personal observation and maybe you guys agree or disagree with this. But like most crypto people have this really simplistic view that it's like oh well the U. S.

Is printing money and the dollar is gonna d base and everybody's gonna go off the dollar system and we're gonna get inflation and hyperinflation and then everybody's just gonna run the Bitcoin and Bitcoin is gonna go to the moon right? That's kind of like this uh really simple and in my in my opinion like very wrong theory of how things are actually going to play out where I I think the reality of that is a lot messier and probably the complete opposite opposite of that in a lot of ways. And if you're a crypto investor, I think this is like a concept you need to be thinking about because you're, you know, a lot of the stuff we invest in is not going to escape these types of like large global macro headwinds. Um so I'll leave it at that. I don't know, I think they want to add to that. That's the most interesting part to me personally, I I'd like to go deeper on that because when I sit there and I look at this theory and I see the fact that it's like mostly playing out and it's very interesting that it's like some assumptions are probably slower or off or whatever if you want to be a perfectionist about it, but it's mostly playing out. And so the question I'm left with at the end is kind of a so what question? Like what does this mean for the individual, what does this mean? I mean you're if you're a citizen of another country, it's obviously a very bad thing for that person to hold the currency of that nation and if obviously the value of the dollar is going to keep accumulating and swallowing up and liquidity is going to keep going towards like, like everything is just gonna get sucked up by the dollar, I want to play out the like what's the most interesting part of this for you guys? What happens on the other side of that? So Stephen you're saying, you're taking a contrarian view and saying that it's actually gonna be the opposite of what most people assume, so what is it gonna be, What do we think it's gonna be if it's in line and what is Brent johnson talk about? Because like most of when everything I've examined is like everyone kind of nerdy about the fundamentals of the theory without talking about the actual after effects of what happens then, because I think that's the scary part that no one really wants to look at.

Mhm Yeah, I mean, I think when you, when you're an investor, like, like path dependency is really important, depending on The duration of your, your timeline, right? Like I invest on much shorter timelines than most people probably should, to be honest. So, um there are Bitcoin Hodler's who have a 30 year time horizon, right? And if that's the case then yeah, I guess you can fast forward to that and not worry about all the stuff in between, right? But but but to me, if you, if you have this idea that Bitcoin's value is going to come from someday becoming a reserve asset that stems from the eventual loss of faith of the dollar and all of the fiat system in general, I fail to see a point where everything doesn't go to hell before that kind of like rise from the ashes of Bitcoin takes place, right? So if you think that's the path that has to take were ultimately um and and like Brent will say this and a lot of his, his, his, his podcast right? He's like the the the idea is

that any sort

of event in his opinion that would ultimately lead to the demise of the dollar will first lead to the extreme rise of the dollar because the the U. S. Is going to defend its status as a reserve currency. We do have like a extraordinarily large military and and and and big grip on the world and the dollar is a weapon right? Like we can really really weaponize that because of the dependency of other other nations on it, right? So even if you are a believer in this thesis right? It's it's a it's a worthwhile question to ask yourself right to to say like okay well if I if I believe this is gonna happen eventually but before that happens everything goes to hell. Well shouldn't I just wait to invest until everything goes to hell and not buy Bitcoin at 30 K. Now? Like shouldn't I buy it at like eight K. In this apocalyptic scenario or just wait until that apocalyptic scenario no longer looks like it's gonna happen and there's like a different scenario like I I think there's like this possibility there's a real possibility we just sort of enter like some stagflation eri environment where nothing like extreme happens and it's just like kind of a really terrible period for the world but nothing blows up actually think that type of environment could be really good for Bitcoin once the kind of risk off trade goes away and everybody is really just dumped everything and we're kind of left with that environment. Um, but the other one, we're talking about where there is this like financial currency crisis ultimately Brent I think says that we're going to have to have like another plaza accord moment that this was this point of time in the eighties where all the countries had to get together because the dollar was getting so strong that it was basically destroying the world, right?

The dollar getting strong creates this feedback loop where everybody else's currencies get decimated, they can't afford to by like currently buy goods anymore, right? Your, your ability to buy oil, that's denominated dollars keeps getting more and more and more wrecked as the dollar goes up and up and up and up and has all these other knock on effects and eventually everybody had to get together and just agree to sort of just devalue the dollar. And I think Brent thinks we're gonna have this moment where we reset all the currencies. Ultimately, like this isn't like the dollar milkshake isn't like a rosy theory, even though it involves the United States ultimately, um doing better than everybody else in the short run. It does end with everybody else getting wrecked along with us and there's this sort of reset period, which I think is why he's such a fan of gold because he thinks gold is going to be something that we turn to like there would be this move to say, hey, we need to, we need to back these currencies with something again, maybe at least partially, uh, in order to kind of like restore this faith to the system. And I think that's the point where we can say, well, what is there a chance? Bitcoin could be that thing or, or a part of that basket of goods or is it going to be more that, you know, people who are jumping off the, the, off the titanic and looking for a lifeboat are, are going to just cling to the, the, the, the plank of wood and the ocean, the drift that is Bitcoin and maybe those flows kind of push it up. I'm still thinking this this through to be honest, I'm, I'm not sure exactly what the next kind of 3 to 6 months is going to do to Bitcoin with these, these forces because like I said, I see these two competing forces, right? You have the, the risk off trade, which is just sucking liquidity from everything that's obviously very bearish Bitcoin and the dollar going to the roof is very bearish Bitcoin, but you have this other opposing force, which is that like, inevitably, I think we all see that we're going to re enter this like new paradigm of like kind of infinite money printing again because eventually the people are gonna start coming with pitchforks and the politicians are going to have to figure out some way to ease the pain because politicians are inherently short term thinkers and whatever the biggest pain right now is is what they focus on. And right now the biggest pain is inflation, ergo we have this kind of uh big fed move right now to just just basically crush it and we're seeing the effects of that uh right now, what do you think about that nick?

Yeah, I mean I'll jump in real quick and then eric would love to have you chime in with thoughts or questions because like I think at some point we should kind of take the red team on this and see what we don't don't maybe not believe because you know, none of us are macro specialists, but we're trying to like walk through this theory because it's, it is kind of playing out as we see like yen, is that, you know, multi decade lows against the dollar, the euro is at multi decade lows against the dollar and wall. We all can go travel and buy cheap sushi and, and cheap hotels. You know what, we're really trying to like examining this thesis is the greater worry that the global economy could could collapse essentially. And so I think, you know, to your point, the Bitcoin bull case could could still exist. You think that fiat currencies will all eventually go and be less worthwhile. But I think what this theory is saying is that pain will be first that the dollar will go up and there will be a lot of pain at first and and so I started to think this through and I'm like okay so let's say that the global economy starts to collapse right? There's this vicious cycle economies are going down, they have to print more money um dollar keeps going up and and trade becomes an issue. And so you're like well what is the Fed really care about because the Fed could could kind of put a stop to this if it wanted to but like you said Stephen what they really care about now and I think what is most politically relevant is getting inflation down now and I don't think they really care as much that some of these emerging markets might suffer in the meantime because you've had the U. S. I think during mostly during the trump administration like kind of like take a step back as the global hegemon that kind of like world leader if you will and you know having the dollar being powerful I think is a way for us to to re enter the geopolitics market and say hey we have a bargaining chip here and it's it's the power of the U. S. Dollar and we can relieve.

X. Countries issues by potentially you know um helping you out like giving you uh you know some overnight swap window, whatever it may be like we can work something out if you play ball with us on the geopolitics part. So um and then so I started to play that out and I think at some point though the dollar increasing to a certain rate hurts hurts the US. Right? I mean that that is going to happen and maybe something else breaks before them where the fed has to pivot and I think that that that does play out but at a certain point the dollar hurts these other countries but it also hurts our our homegrown companies right? Because our exports get more expensive to other countries and so demand for our exports will will decrease. And so us companies that are selling out to the rest of the world may see less profits and that will affect things. So um I think that's an interesting you know thing to try to play out. I don't know. Eric what have you been thinking about? This whole thing is a

lot of moving, there's a lot of moving parts and I think you guys all bring up good points. Um My my first thought like when we even brought up the topic was like not thinking about the fundamentals of the dollar milkshake, it's like how is this investable? Like how do we play this thing with our dollars? And um you know my first thought after that is like okay so the D. X. Y. Is rising um But it's it's not it's not rising that much, you know like over the last year is up 13%. So that might be that might seem high to somebody who follows dollar currency markets but it doesn't seem high to somebody who like invest in crypto. Um And then over the last five years it's up 9%. So like it is up. Um But it's not like this doesn't feel like a liquidity squeeze, this doesn't feel like Gamestop. Um So I guess my question to you guys is like what is the liquidity squeeze potential here?

Like it isn't I don't feel like it is as squeezy as Brent johnson makes it makes it seem but like if if this is playing out and if this is valid like you know how high does this even go? And then how do we invest in it? Because like owning D. X. Y. You're gonna you're gonna make 13% like that's not that's not that good. You know? Well if you're if you're playing with fx right? You know it's uh there's a reason why fx is like a big leverage asset class. Like you just can't you can't trade currencies, you can't trade these moves. They're so small without using leverage. I think there are some leveraged E.

T. S. You can buy as like a normal club who doesn't have like an Fx account. I guess if you want to get exposure to it but it is it is kind of tricky I think for regular people to kind of put on some of these trades and, And to profit from it, right? I think to, to give you some idea. I know, I know Brent has said, he thinks the yen is going over 200 real quick. What's the time horizon right now on this theory? Like what are we talking about opposing

views? Right? Like I think, I think some people think this plays out really quickly over the next 6 to 9 months and then a lot of things break credit markets, break, you just see like global economy or the GDP and other countries go down. Um, and you know, maybe at some point the Fed stops in steps in to, to kind of stop this. And I think he's mentioned on a few podcast that he thinks this plays out over 5 to 7 years and that, you know, when you see these big trends happen, they don't happen, you know, in a straight line, they kind of have fits and starts, but he thinks in general, this, this is like a 5 to 7 workout scenario. And so that, that I think those are the two perspectives on, on timelines. I think I'm, I'm more in the shorter term uh, timeline that like, um, so

You feel like if we can beat the short term squeeze problem in general and overcome it, that we won't, we won't see this. Like it won't, it won't just be like a little hiccup along the way and really the whole thing plays out in 5-7 years.

Yeah. And I do want to pick up on eric's point about how to play this, we should definitely talk about that, but like I I struggle to see where the Fed doesn't step in, but I also don't know, you know, if if them stepping in means pausing the increase in interest rates, um you know, I don't know if that stops the problem. I think they have to have would have to go back to full easing in order to to stop this kind of vicious cycle from going on. So while I think something will multiple things will break and the Fed may step and I'm not sure if it if it just like kicks the can down the road or actually put puts a stop to it. So that's where I get a little, you know, confounded. And and it it seems unclear,

I think we have to remember why QE existed in the first place, right? Like the Fed started buying bonds because nobody else wanted to buy bonds, right? There was no demand there and we had to issue those bonds from the government, right? So I think people are just kind of attached to that idea and just assume that's the norm and we go back to it. Um I question if in a world where there's tons of money flowing into us. Treasuries like why would you have to do QE again, right? Like why? It seems to me that if you play like the game theory out right? Like if I'm just thinking of this as a, as a board game, we're in this situation where we have this exorbitant privilege of having the U. S. Dollar basically no matter what we do right now, the dollar goes up. There's just this crazy uh imbalance of supply and demand of dollars in the world, right?

So if I'm a U. S. Politician, I feel like I take advantage of that to just helicopter drop money on everybody all of my citizens and have them buy stuff again and make them like vote for me. Um We saw this like in Australia right? Like the the opposition party is basically running on a, we're going to air drop money to you to buy houses because the housing market might collapse, which it is like the housing market there is insane. But like all the political parties all over the world who are opposition parties are there, they're going to start running on this populist like we're gonna give you money type thing. So I, I fail to see how we're going to avoid creating the money and creating the new liquidity at some point. But I don't think it's a given that you're gonna do QE again. I think we may just issue bonds. I think um Michael cow on twitter, um he's urban cowboy, He's even floated this idea of them kind of steepening the yield curve at like a very long duration by like issuing 50 year 100 year bonds, right? And basically like kind of pushing all this demand at the end, which basically would allow the um the fed to do different things that have more flexibility at the front end of the curve without causing a problem. And I think this is a little um different to what Brent thinks is going to happen because I know he likes to talk about the scenario where ultimately the yield curve inverts because things start going to hell.

The lower rates come down the near end rates um kind of go up and then we get this behavior that happens where you basically can kind of borrow money for free on the short end, which encourages risk taking, which causes a blow off top and then kind of everything explodes. I think that's how he sees it playing out. I don't have a strong opinion on where it goes yet. I think for most people, the idea is probably to

just sit

On sitting on cash and waiting. I think for like most people is gonna capture you know, 80% of the value without having to put on a fancy position right now. You know, I just had, I just had a thought, you know, and I haven't like, I don't think I've thought about this as deep as you guys but I just thought like if you apply the milkshake theory to to other assets like um okay so let's look at stocks right stocks are priced in dollars, they're gonna get hit by a higher dollar. Like Nick said they earn foreign dollars that are gonna get devalued at a faster rate. That's gonna hurt stocks. But at some point I think U. S. Stocks become a bit of a milkshake as well because what you're going to invest in like foreign companies like this is is way better like you want apple you want amazon. So I think there's gonna be a huge inflows into U. S. Stocks and I think that you can kind of apply that same logic to a lot of good assets like Bitcoin as well, you might just get like massive inflows into better assets. That's a good point.

And I think the milkshake theory does basically say that stocks too become the milkshake. I know that Brent has said that blue chip companies right basically at some point shift from Treasuries to to being the thing that all the money flows into. And I I I think the thing I am wrestling with as a crypto investor right who is definitely in the past bought into this kind of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Um It's a monetizing the debt hedge type thing. I'm still struggling to come up with a really good argument for why owning Bitcoin is that much better than just owning like blue chip us stocks with like strong profit margins like why is that not also just like a really good inflation hedge, you know, so that if anybody has a good uh retort to that for me, I'd I'd love to hear the argument because I I think it's I think it's very plausible that people might just want to put money there instead of a speculative, you know, kind of magic internet money asset that doesn't really have any actual utility beyond that at the moment.

How does either play into that? Because you know post merge either there's yield, there's there's fees, there's there's real revenue in the in the protocol like does does either kind of separate from Bitcoin in your mind as you kind of play what you just mentioned out, ether

is not as compelling as Bitcoin is for the sort of narrative that there's going to be a global

shift to

scarce assets or something that preserves value over time. And the and the the idea of gold right? Like ether does not have a better argument than Bitcoin there but where ether I think is is far stronger is that there there is this obvious utility and demand for teeth to to do things right? Like it by like a huge factor over Bitcoin, right? So I think in a scenario I think there are very plausible scenarios where like Bitcoin kind of loses out to gold and this sort of kind of larger macro trade or doesn't capture the exact amount of market cap people think it might but then heath ends up winning because of just sort of generalized technological adoption right? The just the network gaining additional usage, people building apps, people using it. Plus we've got these kind of magic to economics on it. And then there is an argument for why each should have a monetary premium And like the Bitcoin one is still very nebulous and faith based to me to a degree that's that's kind of what I'm struggling with there. So guys I want to move on to this, you want to

go back um to uh you know the the original thesis because I do have a scenario where this kind of like solves itself um and I want to get your guys Arma like input on it. So a rising dollar to me means inflation will go down um You know because like most of what the U. S. Citizens uh spend money on is is from goods that come from in raw materials that come from other countries. So the U. S. Dollar gain strength, the cost of importing other goods you know goes down. So does does kind of the rising dollar solve solve itself by inflation going down the Fed then kind of stopping in increasing rates and kind of things level off because one of the things that creates this vicious cycle is that rates are so high, you see 10 year Treasuries you know around 3% and that's that's that's crept above what what chinese bonds um go go for. It's definitely what other you know, sovereign uh debt you know goes for. So you know the the higher yield on those treasuries definitely contributes this vicious cycle where people want to get more yield as interest rates go up. So I'm just kinda like I do think there's some scenario, don't know what the probability is that higher dollar equals lower inflation because we import so much than Fed chills and less vicious cycle because sovereign bond rates kind of like level off or go down.

I think it's a little messy because I think you can make arguments that high dollar causes inflation. Maybe not here but like abroad because I think a really high dollar can kind of wreck the purchasing power of your currency and if there's no kind of outside the country demand your currency because everybody's using dollars right, there's gonna be a lot of pressure I think to like issue more debt to kind of fund, you know, gaps in the purchase power and liabilities and stuff like that. And then that's kind of how I think that's kind of how these like hyper inflationary cycles actually start. Um And the U. S. Isn't the only country in the world that buys Bitcoin which is why this is like kind of complicated and I have struggled to kind of like way like oh what what if the US is strong but like europe goes to hell and all the Europeans jump on board or what is the effect of all the third world company countries jumping on board? Like do they move the needle? It's it it really is like a super difficult problem uh to to wrap your head around and it's something that keeps me up at night and occupied in the shower at all times.

We

should. We should. So I think on that on that note um I think we can actually weave some of this into the crypto legislation talk because some of the crypto legislation talk also affects the decision making of how you play this in the short term to eric's question but obviously we've had some clarity brought to crypto um in a very significant way for the for arguably the first time. And um there's there's a lot of things that I think you know everyone has a very split opinion on this about how we're moving forward, we're getting the clarity we needed. But there's a lot of good uh rough stuff in there and of course um like nick or steven or eric if you have something else to say about dollar milkshake and Brent's place, let's finish that.

Yeah I'll just like I think listeners probably wanna know what is Brent so Brent believes in this theory. Obviously he kind of created it, what does he say? You know how to play this and so you can obviously play these like easy E. T. F. Dollar go up um um plays but he's he's generally bullish on commodities and I think he kind of divides up commodities into you know metals like like things like copper, you have things like energy and then you have agricultural um commodities and so you know from what I've understood from his his like interviews and writings, he says agricultural commodities most bullish on because they don't um they will not have a decrease in demand. So because of this dollar milkshake theory playing out you kind of have this like controlled destruction of like you know the global economy and you may see decreased demand and things like copper and steel um and you may even see decreased demand and things like oil because demand is going down economy is shrinking and so you know agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, rice, things like that um which may not face the demand pressure may go up. And then obviously he's a he's a he's I think he's a pretty big gold bull. Um So anyway I think it's just important to just make that note what the what his like recommended plays are and then kind of go from there.

Got you alright crypto legislation. Are we all selling everything? No I actually think that this is like a really a bullish evolution but I want to I want to start from from scratch because like look I I read this entire uh proposed bill and It's like 79 pages. These things are so hard to, I do not have a legal background. I'm like going page by page I'm like this is freaking impossible. So like I want to get my info from the primary source is the same thing happened on the announcement of like this whole thing and this whole process it was just like so that I will just sit and then do you find yourself like reading somebody's analysis but then like also questioning like well what you know how did he get the information? I have read the freaking thing. It's it's hard you know so I think where I landed on it and their their individual sections in there it's like there's sections on stable coins or sections on uh you know like what is regarded as a as a security and like what regulatory body should govern each of these things but where I really landed on the whole thing was like I was like wow they're actually really sort of bullish. It seems like they're bullish and they like want to make this thing succeed in a way that they can still have their claws on it but it's like it's no longer like this is a scam. This is going to ruin the U. S. Dollar.

This is going to ruin the fed. Like it just seemed more of like okay hold on this is actually pretty real and like let's get everybody on board but that's that's sort of where I'm at. I don't think enough people are actually mentioning that that there was like a very dominant fear that this was just gonna be like the ultimate bitch slap from the government and everything was just going to go like extreme regulation across every space, across every type of whether it's douse or stable coins or whatever and no one was gonna be able to do anything. No I think you're exactly right. Like they need to have their claws in it, they need to have some regulation. I think that a lot of people in the crypto space are actually pro regulation and it makes sense like if we want this to succeed long term and I and I felt the same way but I couldn't do it. I was like I'm just gonna read these twitter thread analyses uh you know it was just too much.

There was one point I was a little shocked at was the de minimus like allocation like basically anything under $200 you can trade back and forth um without any tax consequences. And I was I was kind of shocked at that. I mean I was also you know kind of surprised by just potentially categorizing not only Bitcoin but ether as a commodity um seemed you know pretty pretty surprising and I'd love to hear if you guys have any you know like counters to to either specifically as as a security or not a security but um yeah it was kind of like pleasantly shocked and it seems like you know the Bitcoin maxis were definitely apart Of this legislation but um and I have some other thoughts but in general I thought that was one of the things I was shocked at was like we could trade stuff back and forth under $200 and not get taxed. Like there seems to be so many loopholes based off of that. Like How many transactions can you loop together at $199 to like get out of the taxation. Um

So so so much like some highlights though. Like can we start macro with the highlights because for I'm sure a lot of people listening to or like just I haven't I haven't looked at this thing either. Give me give me the things that stand

out. I mean I can try like eric do you have you have. No

no I was just gonna say that you mentioned the big the big highlight as they labeled Bitcoin and ether as commodities that would be regulated by the cftc um So those have like less stringent requirements on reporting. Yeah I think for people like the T. L. D. R. This is that Bitcoin and ether are probably going to be very safe from what I am understanding. I think there's a lot of kind of systemic risk involved in buying anything other than those two because there's could there be this looming threat of it being declared a security and maybe not dying? But having like some major hurdles to overcome that could be like super negative on price, right? So I think if you're buying anything other than those two kryptos at this point um you're you're being slightly suicidal. I was really I was really shocked that they excluded staking income as being like it's apparently not taxed, which is incredible and really so good for you. But like I I I have a lot of mixed feelings on kind of Bitcoin and its involvement in this. Like on the one hand I think it it is good that we're getting some sort of regulatory clarity.

Um On the other hand I've been kind of getting this vibe where Bitcoin is feeling to me like some of these crappy institutions we have elsewhere in the world, like you know, media institutions like we we we see this pattern right? Where people have this this product and the product starts sucking but they want to maintain their share of the market. So they sort of turn to regulatory capture to sort of entrench themselves and to like maintain their edge. I feel like Bitcoin is kind of walking a fine line right now and like when you read through twitter and you read the responses and the general sentiment of Bitcoin ear's it's a lot of them like rooting for east to be like labeled as a security and all the same and it it really rubs me the wrong way. So I feel kind of dirty about that part you know? But I also think that from a price perspective if this sort of ends up in a ending up where like okay we end up with an E. T. F. And Fidelity and Goldman can sell Bitcoin to their clients. You're just gonna have this built in incentive for the banks to basically show these as financial products for us to their their clients so they can kind of collect their fee and it is going to make the number go up and I don't know what the long term effect of that is going to end up being in the long long run but it's probably pretty mid term bullish but I don't know about the ethos you know,

I kind of got that feel to you know like I think in general we saw this was when we started talking about social media regulation like when facebook was up and doing hearings like typically regulation benefits the incumbents right? Because like regulation provides all these like expensive barriers for new entrants to enter and when I saw this legislation, I originally thought about coin base F. T. X. Like the big crews that are lobbying and the big kind of incumbents benefiting from this. But then I kind of got the sense like the Bitcoin community is trying to also benefit as being the the original incumbent from from this legislation. And and you know, my my general take away on the look going forward is this is gonna take a long time and like I think this thing is going to change quite a bit, you know, I think this thing has to go through four committees first Banking, Intelligence, Financial services and Agriculture, Agriculture because CFTC looks over commodities. Um and this thing is going to morph and we may not see a vote on it until until next year. And so what I'm looking to just see what plays out is how these different crypto lobbying groups are going to take action because we have this weird thing where crypto doesn't have one big lobbying group. I I wrote out three that I identified there's the Blockchain association which is like ripped a ripple crypto dot com Kraken. And then you have the it's called Adam Association of Digital asset Markets, which is F. T.

X. And then you have the Crypto Council for Innovation, which is Fidelity coin base and square as the big backers. So you don't necessarily have like all the incumbents like coming together and putting a lot of money in one force, I think they'll generally agree, but we'll we'll see who has the biggest influence and and my my biggest fear is that defi protocols are not part of part of this voice and part of this influence and that you know, when this thing finishes up, you know coin base and F. T. X. Will happily play along with some regulatory um things they need to subscribe to, but but defi protocols, you know, may not have the voice they need um and and the voice that like you know crypto consumers need to to to be able to kind of hold hold their own crypto and and kind of keep things in their own wallets so that that's like a just general fear I have but I get what you're saying about the Bitcoin community Stephen.

Yeah, and I think the last thing I'll say on this is it's it's very apparent to me that Bitcoin has like a much stronger foothold within government and far more influence in government than ethereum does. And this did read to me as being very sort of nebulous for defi um but a year or two years to get executed isn't really that long because that could line up with the start of the next bull market, right? So if you end up in a situation where the government and regulation and banks all end up being like a line on the side of super pro Bitcoin and some of these elements of ethereum that were kind of propelling us through the last market are kind of being held down like I don't know maybe you have this kind of goldilocks zone for Bitcoin to kind of do its Bitcoin thing again which it didn't do at all last bull run and just just go to the moon and leave everything in the dust. It would be very counter to the narrative that we all are kind of hearing constantly as like in theory in people but it's it's something that we should consider and be open to I think with our long term investing thesis there's one thing that stood out to me um the bankruptcy definition changes I think that really stands out to like users and and sort of maybe more the the typical crypto investor who's buying on an exchange has a lot of concern and fears around that and um yeah there's a win that makes it clear that assets deposited would get returned to users and not liquidated. I thought that was a nice little example of like regulation working in the favor of Yeah

I was like kind of open to some of the regulation like I was very open to stable coin. Not necessarily like regulation but just like in terms of reporting like it would be nice if all stable coins had like a very defined taxonomy in which they used to report reserves. Even the algorithmic stable coins like just some like I don't know formula in which they report like how it works so that consumers can can can decipher a little easily like what they're getting into. And I think they had that part, you know, part covered in the bill. But um yeah, I think that part I was open to and we'll see how this plays out for

sure. Any hot uh takes on this legislation or can we just get nothing? I have nothing spicy for you. Let's uh let's uh yeah, let's just move on. I I could talk more, but let's just let's get let's get Yeah, I feel like, I feel like this has been a very serious episode so far. We need a little like we put on our big boy, serious gaps this episode, we're gonna have dessert. Like, look, we're we don't just talk guns in porn. I mean, I would prefer to honestly um Tinder effect is a little porno we a little bit, but not really, it's softer. So um Stephen you introduced us to an idea. It was a very simple chart that provided some data that I was absolutely shocked and floored by. And I feel like we've just been like talking about this ever since and in shock at the reality of like what is happening and just for context, like we're all in our thirties and I think that a lot of what's happening to people in there Early, early 30s and 20s is very different from the reality that we experienced growing up into adolescence and becoming adults, the world has completely changed. So what's going on?

Yeah, I mean it was sort of a combination of two things, right? So I saw this stat about Man like 18-30 and it was just a simple question, like, have you had sex in the last year? And in like 2008, I think 17% of men said Uh said they hadn't and recently that the numbers jumped up to 30 so we've almost doubled that number and basically a decade. And I was like, oh man, that's there's some stuff going on. And and I know that this is kind of a trend because I I like to kind of keep tabs on what's going on on the internet. And we there are these movements that we obviously know about, like the in cell movement, right? Um but there's also like kind of like a medium in between really movement. I forgot what is the in cell movement like involuntarily celibate. They're all like the yeah, can't get laid. But there's there's this other movement of men online called mig tau, which is like men going their own way where they're like, we could get laid. But we kind of over women because they suck and we're just gonna do these other things instead, right? So it's like it's like one over.

So there's a lot of these movements going on and we hear all the memes about like chad and Becky and stuff like that all the time, these people talk about. Um but this led me to a medium post um by at worst online data, which is a funny thing to brand your medium as and they write about a lot of online dating stuff and with a lot of data, so there's a lot of really interesting data and analysis in this post. Um I could just pull Some stats that jumped out at me. Um they basically concluded that the bottom 80% of men Are competing for the bottom 22% of women and the top 78% of women are competing for the top 20% of men. So there's this kind of like real, it's like what we had in the real old tribal days were like basically the big gorilla would sort of get all of the women and then the men would just sort of fight to the death to kind of get that. It was, it was really, it's kind of a bad thing for the society. That's why we started kind of doing doing the world will pair off. Where do you guys place yourself on that on that spectrum. I'm the biggest gorilla in town, buddy. This back is silver. I mean, I feel like I feel like everybody here is doing okay, but I have, I have sympathy for people out there who maybe aren't and this is why um they did a they did a thing on the Gini coefficient, which is like an economic measure of inequality like the distribution of wealth and society and equated it to Tinder. So if Tinder was a country, it would be like the In the 96%ile of inequality in terms of like who gets all the spoils uh like the the medium women Is getting 35 times as many likes per week as the medium man and an average man has to have 115 women go through 100 and 15 women just for for for one to like him.

Right. So it's just hold on because I think that that data that data can be skewed by just sort of like behavioral differences. Like when I was in san Francisco living with three dudes, uh these guys would wake up in the morning and before they even like Went up to P they would just be like this for like 10 minutes, just like, right. Right. Right. Right. Right. Right. Right. Right. Right. Just, you know, getting the pipeline loaded so, you know, but that doesn't but that's, you know, that's yeah, that's you're you're looking at it from the other way, you know, like getting more swipes if like dudes are just doing, it's not a it's not a matter of swipes, it's a matter of women not picking more so than men swiping with like high volume and there's just like kind of like really massive imbalance of like how the two sexes behave on Tinder.

But I'm like, I'm curious to kind of go back to the original stat where lot of dudes aren't, aren't, aren't having sex anymore. And I'm curious like, what you guys think the root causes, because I don't think it's just, well you got me going on Tinder and then you want to go backwards. Like I think the incentives on Tinder a little bit broken because you can't, like, you can't see who liked you. So it's always in your benefit to like, you know, like, you know, you want to give yourself the optionality rather than only Amanda's only a man does. And and so I actually to argue your point, like the behavioral bias of men versus women, the women are looking for different things. Like the man just wants to know the dude just wants to know, Is this going to be an option? What are my options? Tell me what my options are in the first place, Who's my match speaking by the way? Someone who's never used any of these dating apps and then the woman is actually uh consciously diligently going through the process of assessing the individual and determining if they deserve the swipe. Absolutely. I've had so many friends tell me like they'll look and just based on the look and a couple quotes on hinge or whatever be like, yeah, okay, you know, dating or marriage material. I would.

I would, because they know that the moment that they say yes you're gonna show up like a fucking hound dog in their D. M. S. Being like what's up, what's up? You want to drink, what do you want to do? And like I've heard worse things by the way, like I know people that just literally go like you're hot like you're down to hook up like and just go straight forward so they don't want that in the first place. So many of them want to protect themselves from that behavior in the first place. So they have to have that wall up of making sure that they're choosing appropriately. And that is a major part of what's skewing the data for sure on Tinder at least

kid was married before even dating dating apps came out. Like you

got strong opinions for

someone who was you know, locked

up before all this

stuff even came out. I

I agree with you

but I'm just poking at you because you know,

Yeah I take offense with Eric's analysis of this too. That the reason the match rate is one out of 115 is because guys swipe a lot that's totally backwards, right? As a, as a guy, right? If you are indiscriminately swiping on everything, your conversion rate should go up. Like if you only swiped on tens And you were five, your convergence would be like one in every 10,000 girls right, took the wrong, you took the wrong metric that I was arguing. I was arguing the metric that girls get more uh get more likes than guys, obviously get more likes in guys. I was just trying to like focus in on the despair of the poor 80%ile man on online dating apps. Who was just getting, let's take it back there. Let's take it back. I have a question. I have a very important question. What is the data on women and sex?

Are they abstaining or not having it as well? They're they're they're they're just going saying they're they're having a great time, steady, steady is a large, large divergence. Um I don't, I think it's, you know, it's, it's risen slightly. Women now are 18% and I think in, but they were they were like 14%, in 2005. So it hasn't changed a lot. But it has, it has ticked up and I think there are some reasons why I have a very hot take, give it, give it to me. I got a hot take and then I got to go run to the bathroom. You guys too much liquid here. Okay, so uh this is like one of those like literally pulling it out of my ass takes but I think there might be something to it. Why do I think that men are not having as much sex as they used to and as frequently. Okay. The first thing about a man attracting a woman in the first place is knowing how to talk to her in real life, no matter how good your game is via text, you eventually have to show up and you have to overcome a few hurdles that this person this woman has for you to qualify you to ever want to engage with you sexually, right?

So if you never really grew up in an environment where you practiced that in the first place, you basically have the equivalent of a lack of game, you never walked into the bar and just talk to women, you never learned how to how to take them out on a date. Maybe you're more of a romantic type, you don't want to just hook up, but you never even had an opportunity to practice that maybe you do just want to have sex and you want to hook up and you get overly excited on that date when you finally meet up and you throw them off and they want to run away from you and I think that really what you ultimately have here is a bunch of guys that are growing up in an on like I'm gonna be boomer about this. I think that the social media aspect of things, the online dating aspect of things has made so many dudes, I mean, how many times do you guys go to the bar with our friends with friends in general or just watching and observing and you watch and you see that the way things used to look and behave was people used to actually mingle. There was more of this like walking over to the table with girls saying hello, buying them the drinks, flirting saying something funny, just just like banter and all that banter is gone, most of it at least like some guy's gonna say oh I still I still have game, I still go out, I still do this like my brother is one of those, he still does great when he goes out right? But he also is on the apps. Why is that why has that decreased? Because they know that they can go home drunk at the end of the night, Open the app and that's where they're gonna get the high, that's where they're gonna engage, that's where they won't get rejected. All they have to do is swipe and then eventually they'll match with someone and they can go into D. M. S. And maybe have a chance at meeting up in person only to funk it up all over again by the time they actually get out in person because they really need to be doing is exercising the muscle of masculinity and I don't mean masculine, like this traditional like masculine. No no I'm talking about the energy that makes the opposite gender attracted to you in the first place.

That feeling that like wow okay this is a responsible person, this is a secure person, This is an attractive person, this is a person with charisma, this is a person who just knows how to even walk and sit and eat and then they're like, yeah, okay, like, and and look like it's gotten to a point where over the pandemic, like a lot of girls, like, I mean all my girlfriends, you know, told me they're like, man, I'm just hooking up like anybody who wants to and guys said the same thing, so like, I think that things were different during the pandemic, but in general, I blame Tinder, I think that Tinder is the problem, I think people have lost the ability to talk to one another to show up and go on dates and hook up and and I think that they overly rely on these apps and porn. I think that porn is probably the, the, the other biggest reason if you want to go back to the last episode, I really believe that like they go home, they swipe on Tinder and I don't mean this with any disrespect to anybody who actually does any of these things, I don't mean it with disrespect, I mean it was like, I think this is where things have landed, so if you're hearing that and it sounds true to you and it resonates then it's like man, yeah, maybe I should like abstain a little bit because I think the combination of swiping and porn and that instantaneous dopamine that I can finish and get that sensation and that feeling and not need to get the risk of getting rejected is a major part of why people aren't having sex. Okay, I'm gonna go pee now,

you're you're you're relieved to relieve

yourself. Good. Which one of you guys wants to respond to that first, I'll give you the floor.

I kind of agree. Like I he's basically saying there's less hunters out there, like there's less guys going out and hunting in real life, and I think what he's really saying is like there's a dopamine replacement going on, right? Like you definitely get dopamine by interacting with the opposite sex when you're single and like, you know, having that high come from from that mingling and maybe that there's a combination of dating app dopamine and porn. Dopamine kind of coming into play and replacing that, you know, in our in our internal chemistry and our brains and maybe it's satisfying some part enough where people are, maybe, I shouldn't say people, but men are just like kind of getting the dopamine they need from that and that's obviously not good because, you know, Darwin would say you you you know, natural selection is taking place and your gene pool will not survive on to the next. Um I don't know, I kind of get what he's saying in terms of like, dopamine replacement

I do too, can I go Stephen before you go, I think like what what, what I'm seeing now is like, kind of what steven was bringing up before, which is like, let's talk to, let's talk to the guy who's like, who's struggling, right? Because if you're, if you're on the apps and you're in the top 20% you're getting all the chicks and it's so easy for you, you're probably also the guy who's going to the bar and it's like, very easy to like, um I guess like, we we probably all know a friend of ours who's like, not cristiano Ronaldo, but like, does well in real life, like, at the bar scene, right? Like, just because they have the charisma and the and the swag and whatever, they can, like, kind of, like, you know, be attractive despite not being just, like, a gorgeous aesthetic, but where, where it takes my mind is kind of like, isn't it all the same? Like, so you're swiping and it's like, a very materialistic, surface level, aesthetic driven thing, but it's the exact same in real life, you know, like, you go to the bar and the guy who looks freaking gorgeous and is all, you know, the same guy is like, getting the same love in real life. So, like, I think it's I think it's very similar, but to Armand's point, like, if, if you're not that guy,

you

do have to build another skill set, you gotta be like, the funny guy, you gotta be like, the, the charmer, you gotta be like some charismatic, you got to like build a different skill set if you're not the Christiano Ronaldo, I love that you're bringing that up eric that like you know, looking at this is a question of like just a person of anywhere in the world, average, however in the in the eye of the beholder looks and is trying to go out there and meet somebody and struggling and so obviously it's like maybe even going to the bar is not a really cool or good or comfortable situation for that person in the first place and so they have to find their game and I think that's why game theory became so popular for so long and I don't know much about it, I I never really looked into it, I only heard like in passing we have a good friend who who um you know you guys all know who worked with him um mystery and you know the person who developed this whole game theory thing and so I've just over the years of hearing that stuff like picked up on it and

you're talking about the the game game,

I'm like what does nash have to do with

dating? I don't

understand. Um No, I'm talking about dating, I'm talking about picking up picking up chicks um which a lot of people um hate on, but actually ended up truly transformed from as far as I can tell and seen, looking outside, you know, outside looking in change the lives of a lot of men and a lot of women for the better who found somebody because that person built up the ability to have some courage to have some self confidence, to have some charisma to go and make those moves in those comments that eventually lead to love, and sometimes it led to, from what I've heard, manipulation and games, uh no pun intended because I think a lot of, like actually what happens with this whole the game game theory and dating is a lot of bullshit games and a lot of like pecking and insulting the woman in order to get her intention and just weird things like that, but I think nagging, yeah, but I think if done correctly owning, so maybe maybe do you guys want to keep going on, like why this is happening, but I just gonna give like 11 thing that I think is passionate man, I'm okay. What I'm passionate about is I think there's something that a lot of men don't understand um the way to attract a woman is this came up in our text thread the other day and eric and I were debating this a little bit, there was a video of um

morgan Freeman

morgan Freeman saying that never chase a woman, let her come to you and then eric was like strong disagree, but I think we were speaking past each other, so let's like now have the moment where we speak to each other about it. I believe that the right way to attract a woman is to own your entire sense of self and not be overly focused on her. So to a certain point I agree with Mr Freeman that like you want to give her a little attention if she's in the bar you don't wanna not say hi you don't want to not be you don't want to be invisible, you want to give her the attention, you wanna flirt. You wanna you wanna do the thing when you hit up in the D. M. S. You want to be direct but you also want to show that you have a life of your own, you have a sense of yourself, you have your friends, you you if you're in the bar and she suddenly stops paying attention to you when you're trying to talk to her, immediately stop giving her the attention because if you keep on like Being aggressive when she's showing you like I'm not into this conversation, you lost already. Like if you go for another 10 seconds after that you lose so that moment turn your attention towards something else and let the light the metaphorical light in the room shine on you. It sounds crazy stevens laughing but have done so many times to great effect and um my wife's going to be okay with this because she she often asked me like what was your dating life like and she doesn't care. I had a way of being able to shine the light on myself in a way where it was like I wasn't doing anything, I was just owning my, my zone and being myself and not being like please like me and you know, blah blah blah and like just all like all my hands and knees, what that does is when you, when you show who you really are and and and she sees other people looking at you and you're in your zone and you're in your element, that's the attractive element that starts to shine. And then they go, wow, this guy is actually like legit, he wasn't just like trying to hit on me and he was just saying hello and then all of a sudden next time you come up to her, you notice her demeanor changes, you notice her attitude changes, you give her a little, you walk away again, you give her a little you walk away again. So I I agree with you eric that like you have to hunt, you have to hunt, women want the directness, they want you to tell them what they want, they don't want you, they don't want you to wait, they want you to most of the time.

By the way we're talking like very generally here, they want you to tell them this is what I want, I want you, I think you're beautiful, I think you're hot. I think we should go on a date. I think we should whatever. But what they but you have to play a bit of a game, it's a bit of a dance because if you're overbearing, you have to back off a little bit and let them let them come to you. Am I, am I off here? I don't know. Do you now do you agree with that at all? You're like, you're like mostly right? You know, are you familiar? Are you familiar with the onion theory where like there are these layers to social interactions and if you go to sort of too deep of a layer, it's perceived as like very oppressive by the other person, right? So like when you and I first meet right, like if I've never met you before, ever, right? And I just go up to you and give you a big kiss on the cheek, you'd be like, whoa bro, That was what Get away from me.

That was I've gone too deep in the onion, right? I need to go through the first few layers. Like, like if I came to you and I grabbed you and I went on your cheek, you'd be like, oh that was a little weird, but you wouldn't be like, be like, I am I am going to throw you off the balcony, right? Like, like like like women want those things but like only after you've breached like a particular layer of the onion, right? They don't want a guy to say those things to them until they're like ooh like there there's like been this like little bit of like a breach in the defenses, right? And then they're like sort of somewhat interested in you in one particular way. And I know a lot of guys when they're trying to figure out how to talk to girls and everything, they think it's this like active like persuasion where they like go up to a girl and like convince them to like them or something and they sort of end up being like groveling or pathetic and it never comes across well. Um I agree. I agree. They just want to see that you're comfortable with yourself and that you're funny or you're charming or something. Uh and that you're not like freaking out about the fact that you're talking to them. Like that's really it.

I mean I think an important framework to understand like even like the tender data right, is that like there's a giant kind of asymmetry and how like men and women behave when they date right? Like women by default trier they're trying to date to like move up status right means different things. What's that

talking about? Tamogami Tamogami, is that what it is,

hyper hyper gamy high rates. This idea that like women tend to date to sort of like move up in social hierarchies and men don't do this right now. Now, what the hierarchy means is not like the same to all women. Like some women may think that just means rich guys, right? But other women, like there are other elements of you that make you socially desirable that they like and want to be around. Like so really funny guys, right? They have like a aura about them. People like them, they're likable and like people want to be a part of that. You're bringing them up into some sort of social element with you. Women are attracted to that, right? But because women only go in one direction, like either the same or up, right? And men will you see rich guys just, oh she's pretty like a lot of guys do that, right?

So you have this like imbalance where the women are only dating up. But the men date in both directions. And that's why you get these crazy stats where you have uh you know 80% of the women chasing 20% of the men. Why are you laughing

just laughing? Because like it's like quintessential you to to break down like this like feel

of like of like, you

know, according a woman into like a framework and like data and like this this like theories that like uh that

I agree with you just like okay. Like that gives

me a chuckle

when I was, I don't know how to talk. I mean I still don't know how to talk to women? Let's be honest. But like when I was younger, I really didn't know how to talk to women and what worked for me was ultimately like approaching it. Like I was kind of learning how a new protocol works. I'm like, okay, what are the rules of the game, how these players like do? And it was just this like game that I would figure out the rules of and how to operate in between, right? It was very like fake it till you make it very like autistic approach to your game theory was like actual game. You actually played a very different game. I like that. I said a lot. Yes, you played the real version.

I wish I would have gave me the

Rules. You know, when I was 16,

nobody gives the rules. The problem is when you're young, your mom tells you stuff and like her advice is so bad, right? You're 14 and your mom's like just go up to her and tell her how you feel and she'll see what a great boy you are. And then inevitably you like laughed at and then you're just going to the bathroom and cry and you know, you have like scars for years because you're like, what happened? I thought I just told nice girls how I felt and how pretty they were and they would like me and now I'm just like a loser, you know? And that didn't happen to all of you rejected. Uh seventh grade seventh grade dance, that one was the most painful. The one I wanted. Just who are you? Something like that? I don't even remember. I just blacked out.

What do you guys think is the root of the issue then? Um we mentioned porn, we mentioned Tinder itself, Is there something more? Is there another alternate um sort of take here that is causing people to just generally abstain. The the two biggest things in my opinion are the built in dating structures that are inherent with men and women combined with the rise of women, like the average woman's like social status and power has been rising dramatically for the last for for decades, right? And and this is like a big problem in new york from people I talked to, right? You have a lot of like really successful powerful women and they want to date the same exact sliver of men that all of like the models and the college, they all want to date like the same men, right? And they all they're all dating up and it creates this like kind of nasty environment where like the men at the top of the food chain are like so overwhelmed and overstimulated and over pursued that they like can't like commit to girl. Like there there's there's this like theory of relationships that sort of posits that you're attracted to somebody sort of in direct proportion to your like perceived alternatives, right? So the more like perceived alternatives you dump on somebody, the less happy they're going to be with what they have because your brain is like, well, maybe maybe that's better, Maybe that's better, maybe that's better. So when you combine that with something like Tinder where your brain is seeing, like all these people, like so many of them, like it's this really nasty combination of stuff, um that's kind of causing this, right? And it's not one thing, but that's that's sort of my broad take on it. I mean, I got rant about this for hours.

I won't do that, but I I love I love that one because I think that another aspect to what I described and what we've talked about Is pre apps. So we're talking at least 10, 10 years ago, at least mobile mobile dating apps like Tinder your only option of meeting somebody was walking into a bar or going to yoga. So the number of women that you ever even had the opportunity to have as an option in the first place was what? One? 1/100 of what it is today. I mean, you can't even you can't even do the math on that. You just can't believe you they still believe in soul mates back then, by the way you met, like six girls in your entire life, because now back then like it required the physical placement of you in that place. And there were only, let's just say like in that entire bar, 3 to 5 women that you were attracted to, then you had to actually go through the effort of like the swipe became basically the approach, you know, the swipe is analogous to like the approach now and you can swipe 1000 times a day. I mean you're basically, you're you have access to the entire city of women that are on the app and that optionality is very overwhelming to stevens point. I know some people that are like out of place in their life where they probably should be like dating more seriously and settling down and they just kind of can't and I don't think they consciously know why. Okay, so I think that's right. The optionality is the problem.

Like you, you throw a kid into a Baskin Robbins, 31 flavors. He's been walking up and down the aisle for like 15 minutes, like trying to choose what can I sample, Can I sample? But if you, if you throw them in front of like a software was like chocolate or vanilla. He's like okay, swirl and it's like it's done, it's done, you've got two options, you're you're gone. But we we also lost. I mean it's like some of the people that we're talking about and I'm thinking about our, our sampling, they're trying all the flavors along the way. So they're not having any problem with like having sex, but they are having problem with like settling down. But the problem with like having sex. I did. That one is so complicated.

Is there some aspects of this of like the faux pas nous of of masculinity? Like I might be in trouble for saying this, but like maybe, you know, the Me Too movement was was good, but like shut

it down. Sorry, sorry. I'm gonna

say like, maybe maybe it over index at some point. You know, maybe over index at some point. And so like did did it become, I don't know, did masculinity get under index? And so you know that the idea of like, like Armand what you're saying, the energy you're talking about like is not as popular as not as like it's not seen as like correct and that may be

decreasing the hunter

mentality. I

totally agree with you. But it actually I'm positive that it's still what women want in many ways. It's what works. I feel like still want traditional masculinity. Women want it. But it's just like me on twitter, that's not like real life. You know, it's like another one of those like fake narratives that's like shoved down your throat, but like nobody actually thinks like that are very culture is telling you not to do that even though women still want it. Yes. Yes. And I think a lot of women believe that they don't want it and then their feeling tells them otherwise. Like, I mean, you watch the conversation happen. Like you can see this happen in front of your eyes so many times where they're like, well I've been told that like that's not you know exactly how this whole courtship should go, this whole situation should not behave that way.

But then as soon as like the dude who actually like really shows up and like we're not talking about toxic masculinity here, guys, we're talking about just traditional, like a man who knows what he wants, goes up to the woman flirts with her is charming. All that stuff has gone out the window because people are terrified of doing the wrong thing and saying the wrong thing. So yeah, over a bit of over indexing for sure and an overreaction to the movement is totally true. I think that could definitely be another factor here. Well, to build on what you were just saying, they're like, I don't know if you got I don't know if you guys watch Sex in the City back in the day, but I did um there's this like episode I remember I was watching in high school. It was like, I had like this, whoa, like kind of realization moment. It was it was the episode where Miranda realizes that uh Everything she hates in real life she likes in bed and then she has this like crisis because she's like this like powerful woman who's like, and she's like, who am I what's wrong with me? And and I remember being like 17 watching that being like first off, like I have absolutely no idea anything about women because this is like um but then I I thought it was like an interesting concept like that that that struggle that you're talking about where people feel like they were told they don't want a particular thing, but actually they kind of do want some of that thing on some level. And it's it's confusing because all the messages we get are just like not kind of aligned with reality. You know, we've lost the polarity in relationships and polarity creates the attraction in so many ways and that doesn't mean that to powerful people can't be together, but typically one person is getting the sort of edge. You know, maybe they're powerful in the real world together, but in the relationship there has to be a dynamic of polarity and if that doesn't exist, there's confusion and there's a battle and that battle will just create resent between them and it's not fun. And so that doesn't mean that the man uh you know, always has to be in that role.

There are plenty of people that I know and men, men that I know who actually are fine, like they prefer the woman in their life to take charge of the relationship and that's a beautiful thing, as long as there's polarity, as long as there's balance there if you have two people who are both passive or both overly like dominant aggressive. Um and this applies to every kind of relationship by the way, right? Like, uh you know, it's we're not just talking about like straight relationships, even in homosexual relationships, you still see that polarity. Like it always exists now. I'm literally just these are all my opinions here. Like this is just me talking out of my ass. But as far as I've seen in my own subjective experience, people love polarity and I think that a lot of the masculinity that is what created the attraction and the ability for the guy to close and get laid. Like he wants to in the first place is gone due to a lot of the things that we discussed. So

what else

you guys got?

I mean, you you need a crew to do that. You need a crew to go out in the bar and and and go out and do the hunting. You're talking about, you need a crew to like go out and be wealthy. You can't do do it all on your own and like, I don't know, maybe my attempt to kind of tie it all together, but like, you know, you you definitely do need, you do need like a close group of friends to kind of do both what we've been talking about, which is like, you know, make make money, get, get wealthier, you know, kind of, you know, observe the political world around you and observe where you are and aren't yourself, but you also need it. Um I think, you know, in the dating game, what we're talking

about you do, you gotta have a crew? Um I guess the question is, what does a person like are a lot of people actually like too much solitude happening as well, where you know, they're just on the apps, they're not going out, they don't have a crew to go out with in the first place. I think that's actually more common than we realize as well. People are, people are lonely as fun right now for sure. This doesn't help your brain thinks you're getting less lonely, but it's just like, it's, it's not, it's not real, you know, you could not tell people to join Alfalfa discord because it feels like this is actually hurting like should feel not join what? No, the alpha, Alpha Alpha discord is great. It's a real community, real people hanging out doing real stuff, it's not a bunch of swipe the photos and people Making their face like Ai altered so that their 23 and like a supermodel, even though they're a dude you know, it's,

there's no faces.

Uh did you guys see that? Did you guys see that uh guy on instagram who was posing as like a young japanese like dirt bike rider and he had like 100,000 followers or just tons of followers and then like he just realized it was revealed one day he was just like a 55 year old japanese man using face app, he built his whole account and he was just like, yeah, you know, nobody would have cared about me if they knew I was a guy and I was like, oh, that's sad, no way. Um I know this wasn't our intention or anything to be all like to give tips or anything, it was more of an analysis, but like, um maybe just like finishing with the tip because I feel like it probably felt terrible for someone sitting there who would like to be in a relationship who hasn't been, like there's some, there's some wisdom here, like maybe we just share a little wisdom like, okay, you've been struggling, here's a tip, little hot tip, Okay, I'll go, cause I've never got to respond to Armand's morgan Freeman thing and I wanted to point out where we, we aligned really, it's like, um I agree with you that uh you know, morgan Freeman said, don't chase women, let them chase you. I agree with you that like it's not even about what morgan Freeman saying, it's like, it's about knowing yourself, having confidence in, in, in the self awareness of, of what you value and, and and who you are and then in that you're going to know what you want, if you know yourself you're gonna know what you want and then, and then I think where, where are mom and I kind of deferred, is that like once you know what you want, then go get it, like don't, don't let it come to you, go get it. But I think like we align mostly on that stuff and I think like two people that are struggling, it's like is get inside and know know what you're about and and learn and like really, really take the time to learn and know what you want, wow, I love that. That's pretty good. I mean like I I kind of sort of agree with the morgan Freeman thing. It partially I think people spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to effectively like trick people into thinking that they're better than they are. They're funnier than they are, they're better looking than they are. Um It's just kind of like a lot of smoke and mirror stuff. I I think that people in general just need, especially if you're a guy right, you need to put more time and effort in like Away from the table away from the game to like actually just become somebody who is more desirable right? Like I think like 90 of of of of getting women is related to just investing in your own self development, like in becoming a better person, becoming a more desirable person and working on yourself and I think if you do that and then you just sort of learn how to carry yourself properly.

Like people do come to you right now, that doesn't mean like you don't have to at some point, take a step to kind of grab on to what you want, like eric said, but in general, like a lot of the sort of quote unquote lead generation, if you want to call it, that comes from like all the years of hard work you kind of put into making yourself a better person, I think, not in some magic book you're gonna read and you're just gonna go to the bar and suddenly you pick up every girl like that, that to me is like the nonsense, a lot of people believe in, but it's actually a a longer harder process, like away from the bar to to kind of get to that point hmm

I think there's something to like, um if you want to find someone you love, like you gotta do what you love like that and that will lead you on that process. It may not be like a quick process and it may zig and zag, but like if you have hobbies that you really enjoy and and and things that you love and you get passionate, those things like you will come across people and people of the opposite sex that kind of like vibe with that and I think that it creates more social interactions for that, but like, in trading, you know, we haven't talked about risk management a lot on this podcast, but it's certainly a part of it. I think this is where you have a risk management at the fucking window, you know, like your your downside risk is not that bad, like rejection is not that bad and and and and trading, you can be um on the losing end a lot, as long as what you lose is minimal, and when you win, you win big, and I think there's something to take forward to that. Like, when you're approaching the potential opposite sex is like, you know, you might lose the majority of the time, the majority time you might get denied, but like, the what you lost is not that big, you know, you lost a little face time and little confidence and you can build that back up, but the upside is such a big reward, so you don't have to, you know, win all the time, you only gotta win once.

So, I

mean Yeah, exactly, So just throw the risk management out the window.

Mhm. Love that. Yeah. Um I guess for me it's like, I think there are two different approaches whether you're looking for love or you're looking for lust because of the stage of life that you're in and sometimes you're looking for lust and you find love, so if you're looking for love, I think you can't say it much better than what nick just said, you know, go spend time doing the things you love, you'll you'll probably meet someone awesome that way by just genuinely being yourself. But but I do think there's a lot you can to do to generally be more attractive and this applies to both men and women actually because I think there are plenty of women, I know it's not as much, but I think there are plenty of women are like, why am I not getting approached? Why am I not getting you know, guys asking me for my number as often as I would like. Um, so it applies, it applies to everybody. This is a human problem. We all want to be wanted. We all want love, we all want sex. And I think that the number one thing, there's an inner game in an outer game. The inner game is really know who the funk you are and everywhere you go like exude that and be centered and be grounded.

You don't have to fake anything to Stephen's earlier point, You really don't have to turn yourself into some facade or some version of yourself that you think is attractive. The moment that you do, that you actually seem fragile and you come off like a house of cards because people can see through that, what they really want to see is you, they want to see you your true essence, your soul. I know that sounds corny, but people want connection just like we have in our Alfalfa discord. I think one of the reasons we have such a great community already is because everyone's showing their true selves, everyone's being a little bit vulnerable and like really just talking about who they really are and where they're, where they, you know, how, what their level of investing expertise is, like, authentically not putting up a front of any kind. So when you're out and you're talking and you're meeting and you bump into someone and the thing that you're doing that you love at the photography class or at the yoga studio, there's no need to front now. The outer game I think is really simple as well, because one of the things is your outer world can create your inner world. So if you start exercising and you start feeling better about your body, I think it makes your inner world feel better too. So like, feel good, look good, You know, really try get yourself a new wardrobe, like these things that people think are like vain. I don't think so. I think like putting on some nice clothes, getting a good outfit, not wearing those old as baggy jeans, not wearing that, you know, frumpy sweater, Like I really think it's significantly makes a difference, you know, do your fucking hair put on some fragrance because then when you walk up to somebody and I and this is for me coming from wearing, are you wearing cologne right now? I'm positive about this, that it leaves a lasting impression and that every woman I've asked says that it's nice when guys wear a little bit and they wish guys more fragrance war fragrance more often, find something light, put it on, be a little Persian nick your, I'm not the only one. Nick, wear some to eric starts to dabble every once in a while.

I think it makes a difference. First of all, I worked in the men's fragrance department, it's called fragrance of Nordstrom. So I know my fragrance back. Oh my God, I can totally see you with your little suit, just kind of Gucci slippers and everybody up unfortunately didn't have back then. I think I've told this story before, I used to fake a french accent to sell more. Yeah, come on man, I was living off my commissions whatever it takes, so I'm serious. Make yourself feel good, make yourself look good, love yourself, get laid! Have fun. I think it's a good place to end it. I love you guys. This was awesome. See you guys in discord until the next episode.

Peace guys! Thanks for tuning in, We love you. See you in the discord and all links alfalfa pod dot com until next time. Peace

00:00:00
00:00:00