57. MONEY | Merge Livestream: Biggest Event In Crypto History (ft. David Hoffman) - Transcripts

September 16, 2022

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Transcript

Welcome Ladies and gentlemen, Degen's and degenerates to another episode of the Alfalfa podcast. We are for radically moderate entrepreneurs and investors swimming in the messy gray ocean serving up alpha in money, politics and life. We are nick rabbani, eric, Johanson steven, Cesaro and I am Armand Asadi. All links at Alfalfa pod dot com. Make sure to hit subscribe wherever you are listening or watching on Youtube and follow us on the socials and most importantly, hop in our discord to join the community for the after party and more Alfalfa.

We have a little chart entertainment up for while. We're doing some technical improvements. Um, the Alfalfa podcast is a little different than bank list. We don't mind pulling up the charts. I hopefully won't get chided for it by the bank list community.

No, no Bank community loves the charges me and Ryan that are like shitty at it. So we don't, we don't pull up charts in like self preservation.

Yeah. Um, Alright, so David, you have a full calendar for the whole evening, don't you? You have, let's say it's 10 pm. There we have

three

hours to merge. You have uh, ethereum Foundation live stream. And are you going to be a co host at any point? You're going to join you gonna hop in the conversation.

Yeah, So it's me and a group of other people. It's on the ef, Youtube, but it's actually not hosted by the Ef because the Ef doesn't do that kind of thing. So we're just like, we've gotten access to the Youtube and so we've kind of like, we're kind of like taking it over. Um So yeah, there's there's like a programming. Yeah, it's community led. Yeah. So there's a program, I have a small part of it. I'm explaining what is the merge actually, I guess that's a relatively big part. Um But then after that it's people who are closer to the core deV's and closer to its taking are going to lead from there. And like I was I was thinking about this like, oh yeah, it's like the ef merge, Everyone's gonna watch it. But then I was realizing like, no, wait a second. Like the world is gonna watch this goddamn thing.

Like the political leaders, governments like tech companies like damn, there's gonna be so many eyeballs on this thing. Yeah.

You said in our text that you would never take on such a responsibility, but like I feel

like hosting. Yeah,

hosting. I feel like you would be one of the most proper to host. Sure there's some technical things that maybe, you know, it might help to have a DEV in the weeds with you, but you could certainly carry the bag. I think, my friend.

Yeah. Yeah. It was mostly a joke of like, am I technically capable of like hosting the ef Youtube? Yes, I am. But also it needs to be like credibly neutral. So they're they're in the same way that ethereum doesn't want to pick winners. Like we don't want to pick who is who gets to host the stream. So we just give it to the E. F. And then we all just show

up. All

right. Um David, I've been seeing, I don't know if you watch CNBC or Bloomberg, but one thing I watch CNBC and keep an eye on it from time to time. And one thing that's been bugging the hell out of me is they've had two people specifically uh in like recurring different segments explain the merger, I guess, give commentary on the merge and it's Anthony Scaramucci and SBF, they combined forces recently think SPF, you know, kind of saved Scaramucci hedge fund there. Um but you know, there's definitely been some some lacking uh expertise on commentary on the merge, specifically on these mainstream financial channels. And it's just been frustrating. I'm curious has have you ever you are bank lists ever been requested to show up on some of these mainstream media channels?

Not any of like the big ones, Not like CNBC.

C

I think the answer is no, I don't know if would

you do it?

Oh, 100%. 100% do it. Yeah, we got to get the information out and you're totally right. Like there are people that are being asked to comment on the merge that don't I know about the merch. Uh and like there's this there's this game of like, you know connections and you know, sometimes people like in that world CNBC just like, all right. Like here's a crypto thing who do we know that knows crypto so they just go to their nearest crypto person

ceo of bit wise. Did you see I was watching this morning just for for normal travel stuff and I saw a commercial Come on with like the ceo of bit wise explaining the merge in like 20 seconds to boomers. It was like

so

awful. It was like

was the C. Yeah I actually don't know the Ceo A bit wise. Bit wise could be like there could be way worse people to explain the merge than the Ceo a bit wise. But yes like it's not it's still we still haven't they still haven't found the core of like ethereum to be able to do this.

You talked about this with Justin drake I think yesterday but it seems like the narrative that people are are mainstream media that is picking up the most is clearly the energy efficiency kind of like the green angle and I figured that might be um the one and it's also maybe just um maybe the easiest one to understand the one that is most evident most quickly. Do you think that's why or is that actually the most important to this broader like investment community you think

a little bit of both right? That's that's the answer that like is emotionally resonant with a lot of people like oh this like I understand Bitcoin I know this proof of work thing, it consumes a lot of energy. There's this ethereum thing that does like these N. F. T. S. And it also is proof of work. Oh wait no it's proof of stake soon and it's gonna be hella green, I can resonate with that whereas like that's the outside like process like you know proof of work, go away, proof of stake. New cool thing. It's innovative. There's those crazy super coders that are doing their weird things out there. Once you're like in once you are a crazy super coder then you like you know understand ultrasound money and realize like that's actually the bigger thing but understanding ultrasound money is like three or four layers deep and understanding like green energy consumption is like one layer deep and so that's what they explained on the mainstream and like they're not wrong, it is like a very significant part of the merge.

It's not it's almost there it's just not quite

for for people who are in the ethereum community, it's almost like a very positive side effect or a by product of this like security update and um you know I think it's uh we know it's good you know it's going to help like the long term awareness of of ethereum and certainly um give it a much broader audience but I'm curious what you know the next narrative that will get picked up. I think the um you know more energy efficient angle will get picked up first, but I'm wondering which will be the next one. I have a feeling it might be the yield, just the fact that we have an asset that could potentially be the settlement later settlement layer for the internet and it produces a real yield and I wonder if that's gonna be the one that they're gonna pick up next. I don't know, do you have a kind of feelings which way mainstream media will will go next?

I have no

clue. I have

no clue after this one. I think like the most logical one is as soon as it starts to show up in the price, then it's that one, but this price has to do something within like 345 months or something.

Okay, so here's the question

guys guys, hold on, hold on, hold on, You guys are talking about like deep technical ship here and that's fine. But can

we, can we like

lighten the mood up a little

bit here? I had

something a little different in mind. I got all funked up from this streaming, so now we're going to put it back. I can't believe this, by the way, the first stream, of course it has to go wrong.

Okay,

so what I was thinking was like, this is for for David especially, but also for us, this is like a birthday party, uh a super bowl. Uh like all these big

moments wrapped into

one, but like this weekend is another merge of sorts. It's uh my wedding that you guys are all you will all be joining us for. I'm very excited. Um But Armand was already out here and today we went on uh a really magical adventure and Armand has some alfalfa of his

own. So

like we typically do like an alfalfa round and what we really wanted to share was like some alfalfa from this hike in particular and I think you guys are really gonna love

it. Do you have a

queued up for screen

share?

Let's let's kick off the,

I have a should I go last let's do a proper alfalfa. Let's do let's have our mongo last because

this is so

good. Alright. All

right so typically in our in our podcasts especially our money episodes um We do a little alfalfa round and it's basically the trades the money moves that we made in the last week and so I'll kick it off. I continue to hold the money.

That's

true. Sometimes we get some life Alfalfa which arm and I have a feeling is gonna come heavy with this week. Um So uh I continue to hold the S. P. Y. Puts which some of them finally cashed in the green as of let's see yesterday and

1000 points. Congratulations sir.

That felt good. Um it you know the general public equities portfolio was down. Bigly but successfully hedged about 60% of the losses. So I don't know if that's good In terms of hedging scores from 0 to 100.

Well

yeah I can't wait to hear steven's alfalfa round, he's been taking a bath. Um But but I did close out some shorter expiration puts and I'm gonna recycle some of that cash into some RK puts those look very juicy to hedge

those to Valhalla baby.

Oh yeah so anyway those are the moves from the last week. Um None of them crypto related this week but probably next week there there will be some and I don't know maybe we'll do someone's live on this live stream. I deposit a little funny money into Dy DX for for fundy so we'll see what happens.

Yeah

I might pull up the one minute chart because it is kind of entertaining. We do have a nasty one hour candle that's not treating us so well right now. Um But Stephen why don't you go next and let us know what's going on with you?

Yeah so uh monday night With like 80% of my net worth and ethereum I was like sitting at home having a drink And I said to myself you know what I should do it but 100% of all my cash into it. So I yeah I bought it like I don't know I probably bought like 1740 or something and then I was just lying in bed all night just waiting for Santa to come and I kept waking up in the middle of the night like dreaming that the C. P. I came in. I had like five different dreams where I thought the C. P. I came in and I was just, it was fake, it was me dreaming. And then I woke up and I was just absolutely wrecked. So I woke up I woke up this morning and I I decided to choose violence and I put in like a very high leverage order at like 15 60 or something on F. T. X. And just so I'm just just riding that trade and watching in the background right now

that

I I got very close to the second bottom tick. Not like the initial sort of like swing failure but like the kind of re test of it after. Yeah. So feeling feeling pretty cushy. Although I actually close the chart so I can't see what's going on right now. I just don't have next phase. Dude, Stephen speaking of your dreams,

yeah Stevie, I showed the chart for like three seconds in the banquet chat was like, oh my god, there's a chart.

All right, we're

going back, we're going back

boys. All

right, we're going back. Okay

so in our in our discord steven's been sharing his like his different scenarios forecast for different asset classes and and like the macro economy at large. And I

the other

night I had a dream about steven's forecast. Like one of one of his forecasts came absolutely true and uh, I don't know if that's prophecy or if that's just, I'm spending way too much time with you guys. Um, but I feel

like what

I did my outfit for this week, I, you know, I'm always selling, puts two to generate income and this week I, I tightened it up so much. I'm selling the The 1500 level, which is like rare for me, I'm usually going for like picking up nickels at like 1200 or 1000 strike and this week

I just,

I'm, I'm like happy buying the 1500 even if I lose them. Good luck with that. Damn, that was it. That was a little perfect retest to get along there. I didn't even see that.

Yeah,

steven

gold

trades. I should, I should have compounded.

Damn, you're

still talking about this chart. Armand can't wait to go. Sure. I hope I hope it works. First thing I wanted to do failed. So hopefully the screen share works because I have to show you guys. Are you ready for it or do you want to talk to this nick?

I'm

gonna, I'm gonna stop sharing and we'll, we'll go to your,

well, let's go back to that. Let's go back to that after. So, um, for my Alfalfa this week. So first of all we went on a fucking ridiculously challenging hike. This guy. This hike difficulty level is uh extreme. I don't know how else to put it. It's like experts only I I wrote that in the invite experts only. He did, he did to be fair. And actually if I may share holy ship, you guys got to see this guy's gene pool. His

dad

73

did the hike

today. He did it with us. And so the whole time I'm just like oh my God, like life goals like when I'm his age, like I gotta be a

gazelle like he

literally gazelle up this mountain. It was unbelievable. That's true, that's true. So we go on this incredible hike. Absolutely beautiful. Really did actually you were right. It reminded me of new Zealand and um you know we're scaling the Teton, the grand Teton right? And we're coming up to like the base of it or I don't know what the technical area that we were exactly right. Eric we go all the way up this thing and um it's quite the arduous climb to the top we get there. It's beautiful. The sun is out, the water is just turquoise and just like reflective and everyone's having a moment, you know, having their beer, eating their sandwich and then all of a sudden I remember I'm like man high elevation, this is where you really got to absorb the sunlight. You really got to like expose yourself.

So

the community

knows the alfalfa community knows especially in our life channel of our discord that. I uh I don't know a few weeks ago brought up this question of like, um, hey guys, are there, is anyone out there like into this taint ball tanning? Uh,

yes.

And so it's been like a mean

and I'm pretty sure that

most people in the community think that I do this, which I actually don't have any problem with because I don't care. It's just another pseudoscience trend. Why not? You know, and

I

realise I'm like, Okay, you know what, this is the perfect opportunity. So this is what I do at 10,000 elevation. Hopefully this works.

I'm gonna log in and

put something else on the screen here. Don't get this.

Please balls out perennially. Um, look at that view. Look at that photo

like even just

without me and just fully letting it

out.

So you guys should try this as well

to you. I really appreciate your

technical analysis or what was the deal here? High test. Oh my God. So you're welcome. Oh yeah. No, literally I've been high tea all

day.

There's no better

place

in there to, to really go Happy baby tan, your general. So shout out to carnivore really is if you're not following him gray page on instagram. He's the one that inspired that. I'm gonna have to tag

him in that.

All

right, well, David Ryan's logging into the bank

less youtube to immediately

pull this livestream on,

I was running the bank stinger. I put on the Stinger. So there was like a bank logo just rotating that. People didn't get to see that for a little bit

there.

It's

necessary that people saw

that. Well, David, can you, can you somehow follow that with the uh, I'm wondering

Why the bank list listeners are 95% male, Jesus Christ.

We have we have quite a few women these days. Okay.

Yeah.

David, the last time you shared your alfalfa on an alfalfa round, uh, you sent a token price like up 300%. So are you trying

to do something that again

or where you at

now? It's all like the East Btc trade man. Yes, that's that's the fun one.

So I did want to ask you about this. It it did dip down 2.075. Did you dip your toes back in? Did you get a little?

Did

you buy more? It looks like a good place to buy. Although at the time it was dropping, I was certainly

wasn't feeling, I should have, I bought more 0.8 which is like already high. But it's one of those things where like in the grand scheme of things, like I'm trying to get, I'm trying to sell this when like ether is like 2 to 3 X. Bitcoin's market caps like 30.8 in the grand scheme of things is nothing when I'm gonna be selling it like 0.25. so yeah, right 0.25 is a good number. Uh So I bought more like 0.8 point eight. Uh Watch it drop down 2.75 and like classic, classic David getting bullish as it's going up in price. Uh uh But like, I mean I bought I bought my first position at 0.7 and then like white knuckled it down to 0.55 and then walked it back up. And so, I mean, I mean there's no way I could go down to like 0.55 again and be like, alright what? I'll just hold it

guys, just so you know, for

you, Hold

On, hold on, hold on. Just so you know, Arman and I are in the same room right now. He can't see this. But behind him, my fiance is giving me the worst looks of all time. She told me I couldn't jump on this stream. And uh she she told me that I had until uh 830 our time which had just ticked and like I have to go just for the sanctity of my my life and

my my future

marriage, I think I

have the

looks are strong.

What was the quote that

Alfalfa nick on on whether or not I should go or stay?

Well, Stephen had a good quote that I think provides a lot of wisdom for this

moment.

Oh

I I said the average man gets married multiple times, but the merges only once. That

I love that. I

hope you guys like

that. Hope you guys like ruining my life for a freaking joke. You have the real merge? Wait, do you really have to go? I really, I really do. Well, we have like, we have like 11 other people that are waiting on on us to get off for me to get off this thing so we can go

out.

So I actually do have to

go, but

you guys keep

going,

but it's been a lot of fun. And guess what

guys? Well, we're gonna, we're

gonna celebrate the merge tonight. We're gonna be at the cowboy bar in Jackson Hole and uh we'll, we'll be celebrating.

We'll

be celebrating all weekend together. You guys get out here soon Tomorrow. I think so.

Well, just,

just let me to know that this abandonment will definitely show itself in your guys wedding present.

So

people

don't forget,

hey Mina, I was having the time of my life and I got rugs

to be some kind of rug. I'm changing it. I love you guys. You guys keep it going. I'll watch you the recording. I love you guys. Just tune into Yeah, I'll be watching Youtube live in the bar,

download riverside mobile and just join mobile.

Can like drown out the freaking live country

music.

Million dollar cowboy bar talking merge. I could be, this would be,

can you, can you please walk into the bar and be like merge? Just like, like, Oh yeah,

alright, we're

gonna replace you with the chart.

You guys keep it going. Chart like that. Let's

take a look at the chart. I want to see what's going on. Maybe you know, Stephen you're the, you're the big boy trader out of all of us. I got a little high timeframe situation going on here in

this chart. Yeah.

Mm

Do

you have judgment on my chart setup here? I kind of have like a rookie chart setup. I got 20 week moving average, you got a 200 week moving average 300 week and I have a very special volume profile set up going on to see uh

300.

That is a nice clean test. May not happen again my friend.

Yeah. Am I, am I allowed to say bearish things on this podcast? I was trying to keep it good vibes only.

Yeah, it would be a first for the bank list Youtube?

No, no. I want you to speak from the heart and from the wallet continue.

Oh my God, this comment eric put your foot down. You can't let it start like this. Sorry, I'm just catching up on the

chat here.

Uh no, I mean when I look at some of the higher tide frames, it seems like there's a lot of air, you know, kind of below us that I'd be very shocked if we don't retest like 1200. Like I would be very shocked especially given macro, I think the question to me isn't so much like are we gonna go down? I think we almost certainly are gonna go down because the world is kind of fucked. Um but the question to me is like is either gonna hold like 1000 1213 100 Bitcoin just like just nukes to 14 or 12 or just something devastating which I think is like a pretty high probability I mean like the writing's been on the wall for a while in my opinion right? Because even like the last, the sell off we had last year, last last summer right? Um after price nuked if you pulled up the ether and the Bitcoin chart like the Bitcoin chart looked like absolute death. It looked like it was going straight to zero and then the chart looked pretty good and then he ended up running way higher than Bitcoin and then we did the same thing this summer with the nuke and initially kind of sold off pretty badly and then all that smart money came in, bought it up and then obviously you know Bitcoins basically the same freaking place it was and it's on its way to Valhalla right now. So I don't know I think all the Bitcoins are are definitely whistling past the graveyard, I think some of the people are maybe doing the same with the macro stuff right now um

but I'm not going

to sell everything because I just think predicting macros,

My God is the sorriest backups at .08, Wow, what a recovery, wow,

it looks so good, I feel like as an evil person right now you wanna probably just be expressing your bullishness and like spread trades honestly, like I'm probably gonna cut half of my spot each position and replace it with spread trades like BtC or some other all, it's like, it's very hard for me to see how easy it doesn't at least just ruin everything with

on that last candle. Holy sh it,

so this is the weekly candle by the way, so this is kind of a high time frame, look if we wanna look a little closer, let's let's look at the daily and see what happens here,

Someone's asking about the indicator on the right, which is a very important indicator, so I think people should know about this thing

to explain it to go through. Yeah,

that's the volume profile. So the people are used to volume right? Where it shows you just the overall amount traded on that day, on the bottom uh the volume profile basically shows you the amount traded at all of those levels for like the range that you have visible there, so that's the, that's the volume profile, visible range. So I love this thing because it shows you like where people are trading right, when price tends to move, like you see that, that's what I'm talking about there, you see that big gap, you got that huge kind of spike out above that range breakout and then there's just like an air pocket. Um It's, it just probabilistic lee speaking, you have to think that we're going to maybe hit the wall at this kind of two K level, maybe we already did and, and kind of re test down there like price tends to move back towards where there's, there's, there's demand and that was the last place there was substantial demand and nobody wanted to to be, you know, there wasn't a lot of activity in between there. So I think it's super, super useful if, if you're a bull, what you're hoping for is that the merge delivers you some breakout above this like two K region, right? Like if we can confidently get above this and hold it, you'll see there's like another large base of support there and if you zoom even way out like on the higher timeframe, you'll see there's tons of support there. Um So we can do that like that could be like the ledge, see that little spike there. So if we hold in that range for a bit and accumulate there, that that that's the bull case, right? I think is that post merge, we have our ups and downs of volatility, but we settle above two K and like accumulate in that range there and then you're on like a moon mission. Um

I mean I think it's probably

more likely we we go lower though. Yeah

steven. So you know, I did notice I was looking at today and just figuring out if I want to play this at all just for fun. But uh you know this little spike out of the the volume profile, uh I don't think it's by chance that we've been hovering around this like 16, I don't know like 15 92 16 20 range because there's a lot of volume that's been battled out over over this price. So it's I think it's um you know, not by luck that were hovering around here to see what's happened. I do get a little uh echoes of of Ben Cohen when I see this like 20 week moving average kind of like going up above it, trying to, trying to test it, but falling back through and and you know, about a month ago we did the same and uh you know, time will tell whether we uh you know, get above back of this and and kind of move forward past merge.

Yeah, I don't like to predict things with certainty. I do think the bottom is probably in but I also think that people seem to be bad about like weighing the sideways probabilities. Everybody's like up down and nobody's pricing in, oh we trade between 1000 and 2000 for like two years or something, which is definitely definitely possible even if the bottom is in and that would be very painful for a lot of people, a lot of people who get chopped up and wrecked uh along the way there. So you have to, you have to consider that. But I mean, I think anything you buy sub two K over, you know, any reasonable timeframe is going to be a good bye, you know, so worry about it too much. But yeah, I don't, I don't like to think uncertainties. David,

have you guys talked about? I haven't heard it on any recent episodes, except the one with Arthur Hayes about net liquidity. Has that been the only episode where um, you know, folks and on the bank lys podcasts, I've talked about net liquidity.

Yes, I think we've talked about it adjacent lee one of the big topics I think that was relevant to this was coming out in this big 2022 downtrend from january to june is like, okay, the inflation hedge narrative is gone from Bitcoin. So what is it? And it turns out like Bitcoin was just a liquidity sponge, which I think is adjacent to what you're talking about net liquidity, but we didn't attack the subject head on.

Yeah, So I mean, you know, Stephen, you mentioned that the world is kind of going to hell and macro, but you know, I do think it's important to kind of like dive a little deeper and to what we mean by that because a lot of people been throwing that word around certainly quite a bit. But you know one thing we've been keeping an eye on is is this idea of net liquidity which is um looking at the Fed balance sheet, subtracting the reverse repo facility balance and then subtracting the U. S. Treasury general account balance and trying to figure out how much money is specifically us dollars swimming around the system and you find a really tight correlation um not only with SMP but uh you know, Bitcoin price as well. It seems like crypto kind of leads this as well. And so Stephen when you said macro is going down, were you alluding to like we're at the beginnings of a longer liquidity down cycle or were you thinking of something else? I mean

yes that there's a lot of things in macro right? Obviously liquidity is a big thing. Interest rates play a role as well. Um But then obviously like earnings are eventually going to be something that hits the stock market and that's gonna be a drag in all likelihood there's a lot going on there. I do think like I tweeted about this the other

day and

that and that uh Darius thread where I was like he's he's got all this research out where he's like pointing out like this kind of bull and bear case for liquidity at the end of the year. And he's basically showing how like a $500 billion difference and like how much liquidity the Fed allows into the system is, is the difference between like 35 K. And 12 K. Bitcoin. And I, you know, I pointed out like, well we just we just basically printed 500 billion with a student debt thing alone. Like is that is that something you have to consider as well? I feel like people aren't talking about fiscal right now and and kind of rightfully so because the near term um tightening is is obviously wrecking us, but the fiscal stuff is sort of like the uh the macro equivalent of the issuance reduction, right? It's just like every day they're pumping out all this like new money into the world and nobody's looking at it because they're watching the Fed and interest rates. Meanwhile the government is just printing money and throwing out incentive programs like eventually all that is going to come home to roost and you're gonna, you're gonna want to own stuff like uh like like ether, I don't know if your your Bitcoin or you could make an argument that Bitcoin is going to be a liquidity hedge there too. And I don't know when that kind of inflection point is going to be, but it's it's something people should be thinking about because I do think we're gonna keep on keep on printing from, from what I can tell,

it's

kind of been one of my thoughts with like the bear market, everyone says like, oh but the bear market or excuse me, the macro markets so bad. Macro markets bad. I'm like, yeah, macro markets bad, but there's like a plenty large window for the macro market to be bad and that's to be bullish

because

of money printing. And so like macro bad isn't necessarily macro, like best bearish for your assets.

It's, it becomes, it's bad as long as people are just risk coughing, right? If you're in the phase where people are like holy sh it world ending, I need dollars and they risk off everything, then there's, there's nothing it's gonna do, right. It's gonna get pulled down. Your, your hope is that there's going to be a lot of like dip buyers waiting in the wings. There a lot of people who have like a long term thesis and they're gonna gobble it all up and that, it's not going to go like completely to nuke town right? But it's still going to go down. But after a lot of that sort of panic and risk coughing is like taking place, like eventually some of these fundamentals are going to come into play like, right? Like it doesn't trade on like stock market earnings, it trade, it's gonna trade basically on each activity, right? And at a certain point in time if the market is done kind of risking off, even if like stocks are still going down if activity on ethereum picks up if the average gas price starts going to 30, 40 50. And like all this, all this stuff is happening. Like I I agree with you, it will start diverging from macro. I just, I just don't know if that's going to be in the next like 60-90 days.

I think we are heading into a like very deflationary regime. I was kind of thinking maybe we weren't, but I've I've changed my tune on that after the last C. P. I. Print. Um And and and assets like keith don't do well in times of deflation. They just, they just don't, you want to buy them during like the peak of the deflationary sort of uh quadrant if you will and then kind of ride them up in the in the period after. But like you, you certainly don't want to buy it going into it as a, as a generalized rule. And that's kind of like my main hesitation with with the trade right now.

So steven are you net long right

now? I am long right now. I mean, I've been very long since like 1000 or so um with with a lot and I like to go like really all in so that I don't feel bad like taking a lot of profits and like I probably will take a lot of profits if merged volatility gives me like two K. Or something again. Like I'll probably shave like 2030 40% off of that and feel okay about it. And like I said, I'm probably gonna replace a lot of my exposure with um, spread trades instead because I think you can express like the same kind of thesis, but you don't have to be exposed to this like macro variable, right? Like I don't think there's any macro variable where like, like the feds are gonna do something and then ethereum goes down and then like Harmony one goes up or something. Like, it's just, I just don't think it, I just don't think it works that way. Um So I'll probably take like a few of these bets. I wanna bet on each versus Bitcoin. I wanna bet on ether versus these things. I may even bet on some other spreads within crypto and then like keep a bunch of cash, but I don't want to be, I don't really want to be like 100% all in long post merge, um with like these two meetings coming up and all the stuff.

I see

speaking of spread trades, David, I thought it was hilarious on your earlier livestream, you're talking to the press and apparently he didn't know he was on a live stream, he was about to give some out

and

out of nowhere. He's like, well, at least this isn't like, like being live streamed anywhere, you guys want

to mention my trades,

anyone, right? And you're like, no, no, how we are live streaming right

now, You are alive, there are 600 people that just watched that. I thought it was pretty clear that I told him like yeah, this is gonna be a livestream. I, I sent him like yeah casual, like unscripted, no agenda. Hang out and I guess like when I say like there's no agenda, I mean a

podcast, I

mean a livestream

friends

in a room and have like a podcast agenda for that.

Yeah, that was beautiful. I do wish you would have let him slide an extra 30 seconds to to divulge the alpha, but he definitely met some uh some spread trades coming up um Yeah, so I well see, I'm sure he'll disclose later what what he played out, but he did mention uh you know, playing the spread between some of these liquid staking, which it

would be a cool like postmortem after the merge to go just like how like, like, like give us the play by play of everything you did just as like a case study I think of just like, you know, you're never going to repeat the merge but it's still gonna be like good learning lessons and still a good examples for things you can play into the future on like similar scenarios

like I think it is nice when some of these may be more experienced traders kind of um open the book, even if it's in, in prior scenarios like after the fact where you know um we've done a few episodes on from hotel to trader trader and those seem to be some of our most uh you know popular episode. So I do think a lot of people kind of, you know, even if they don't want to go full degen would like to um even in in some of their dreams maybe like to uh you know, I think like a trader and maybe play out some trades um for for fun at least. So I am going to bring up another chart that we talked about um Here. So this is um a net liquidity chart I'm gonna bring up. So uh this is from the Twitter handle 42 macro, he shared this net liquidity chart. And so um some of the you guys on on bank list who have heard Arthur Hayes talk about net liquidity maybe very briefly or read some of his articles. Um there's definitely been some larger macro analysts who have been looking at this for for a while and used it to kind of call some uh maybe larger trend moves uh in in risk assets. So here in the blue you see net liquidity which again is the fed balance sheet minus the treasury general account minus the reverse repo facility. And uh and in red you got S and P 500 black, you got Bitcoin. And I think Stephen last time we were talking about this, you kind of mentioned that that Bitcoin uh specifically kind of front runs this this net liquidity move. Do you think that's kind of something we'll continue to see?

Yeah I mean I I sort of question the usefulness of this chart because I think that crypto sort of front runs it anyway so you're going to be kind of driving in the rear view mirror to a degree. Uh It's it's wonderful to behold though to look at. I mean there's obviously quite the quite the correlation there. Um There's also just so much like short term variance and noise. It's not like every time it ticks up you can just go long and then it's it's it's it's kind of I don't know it's it's it's an interesting thought exercise and a thing to keep in mind for me but like I haven't decided if there's like actual actionable kind of signal in it yet. But I'm I'm open to it. I like the sort of range of outcomes you can get from it here. Like that that top and bottom line with S. And P. I think is useful for kind of planning out bull and bear cases and like keeping yourself sane.

I do think there is a level of being able to somewhat predict, you know how this blue line specifically will move because you know the Fed balance sheet is kind of this pre described uh rundown that they're they're giving um which which doubles the rundown doubles in september um And the U. S. Treasury general account. They provide quarterly like funding announcements which let them know you know where they expect the balance of the U. S. Treasury to be by the end of the quarter. And then the big you know kind of wild card is certainly the reverse repo facility which has over $2 trillion of it. So you know for bulls out there looking for a run, you know if the if if if people take their money out of money market accounts and decide to take credit risk decide to take duration risk, decided to invest that money that over $2 trillion could certainly drained from the reverse repo facility. But but right now um you know you're you're earning people who are deposit their money are certainly earning more um in the reverse repo facility at the most risk free uh type of rate than than short term treasuries. So I do think at least two of them you can predict. And then the third one you can kind of use updates and economic fundamentals like the C. P.

I. Report to see are people willing to take take some risk in the future.

Yeah. I think if you just like really smooth brain this it's just sort of like inflation is bad.

I

thought it was going to sort of kind of rubber band back the other way. I I did think there was a really good chance inflation was extremely sort of supply driven and had a good chance of kind of reflexively bouncing back and kind of doing like a bull whip. And I I thought that the market was very badly positioned for that. I thought that in july and and that's why one of the reasons why I went along, but I thought that kind of continued to be the case because I I stayed long. Um I don't think that's the case anymore and if that's not the case and and this stuff is persistent then just without overthinking it, like just rates have to be higher for longer now and, and high rates are high rates are bad for for for risk assets, they're they're gonna knock stock multiples down, they're gonna make investing in bonds more attractive relative to to buying stock. Like why, why would you buy some crazy volatile NASDAQ stock where you can get like 5% on a, like a one year duration treasury in the, in the not so distant future. It's, it's gonna be, it's gonna be a thing and it's gonna be messy, but like I will say that, I think a lot of people don't accurately talk about the whole market's pricing and stuff and front running stuff like everybody's always like they're tightening their tightening, so it's going to go down, that is true for now, but like with most trends if you're in the meet in the middle of the trend, you're, you're going to be correct as long as that is happening, right? But, but the art is sort of anticipating the end of the trend. Like when is, when is the trend going to peak? Right? It's not gonna be so easy as like, just jerome is like, okay, I stop and then the market just goes up, it's not gonna be that easy. Like, um, I think historically stock market bottoms, for example, have front run the bottoming and earnings by 6 to 9 months, right?

So there, there's a, there's a pretty big gap there and, and I think there's a good argument to be made that crypto is going to be like way ahead of that, right? So I think you kind of do have to do a certain amount of like just biting on something and buying when it's really, really, really, really painful. Like if you're a long term person because like, I do think the reversal at some point will be pretty swift and it, it, it is going to to front run it to a degree. But I, I'm just skeptical that now is exactly the time right now,

Right? So we've been talking little macro, let's get back to a little east stuff. So I have the ultrasound money site up looks like we're about three hours and 20 minutes away to

people actually confused by that. I'm monitoring the chat that we have for the future? Ef livestream people are like going between websites like guys, is it in three hours or two hours or like when, when the hell is

it? It's

Between like three, hours from now. What does bordeaux say bordeaux dot wtf is the other one

and I mean

5 27 1 is 1 27 AM

uh,

google has been weird

dot org.

They say

no

one really knows, but we'll figure it out soon soon. Tm

Sorry,

I was texting my girlfriend if she could very quietly bring the tequila bottle inside the

room. Were also were also being were also being asked to take shots. So that's probably good, good timing.

Okay, well

incoming chat,

that is incoming

chat chat has never seen

Emma, can you guys take some shots or

something? So we're actually like two hours behind the original target time. It's because like miners are starting to turn their rigs off. You guys notice

that Yeah, but yeah,

people are

shocked that it, it just started happening. Like I thought this would be weeks in advance that I'm

surprised that miners haven't like rushed for the exits on their Gpus. Gpus are still valuable pieces of equipment and so you would kind of expect like some of them to want to start to like front run all of the Gpu dumb pidge uh it looks like not very many are doing that, which is kind of crazy.

Yeah, I'd imagine the smart ones who knew this was coming, who believed this was coming. You know maybe didn't upgrade hardware and just kind of like fully depreciated that hardware to zero and um did you have any idea of like what percentage of minors um might become stay acres or will beast acres? Do we know if that's a minority or a majority?

I don't know that particular number. I do know that some mining big miners, big mining entities have are like planning on making that elegant transition from mining to staking as soon as like staking begins they just turn into a staking company. Not all miners are have done this but some definitely have some have baked this into uh And like some miners are like definitely aligned with the with ethereum with the core dev's and they they're not like antagonistic and they are like highly aligned with the theory of network. So they're not just like these mercenary miners. Um Not all miners are like that though. So it's like it's a it's a nice balance. I think it's a minority that are like super highly aligned with the theory and that are going to ultimately become stickers but like a significant minority though.

That's kinda nice to hear. Um I think um like would they you think they would be the type to kind of set up their own validators. I mean I imagine someone

with would

be their own, their own validators not using any liquid staking options. That's for sure.

Yeah. Well I mean they all they're not like it's not like one company, right? It's like a company with investors with like, you know, all owners, it's like the most logical thing to do with that capital after the fact. And like imagine, imagine if you're an investor of either like mining agency company and you've been, I don't know like what, how dividends work like that, but like as soon as ethereum turns to proof of stake, like you actually don't have to worry about like a lot of like the capital of your investment because you don't have to play that game anymore that that game is over. And so like the ether that the amount of ether that you've ended up with is the amount of ether that you've ended up with. So at that point like this thing just like spits out staking yield to its owners from now into into perpetuity I

guess. So I'm

curious like

after

you

have a shot ready?

Okay,

okay,

well

before we go into questions I wanted to

get

real quick, I just want to go into right after the merge, you know, there's certainly some people were definitely not any of them playing, this is kind of like an airdrop play and uh you know, we might see some people selling after that to claim their each proof of work. Do you guys imagine that would be a pretty quick move after after the merge. I guess that happened a few hours.

That's what hell press is saying. It's like just like snap back. So many people are so, so many people are playing the like airdrop game that they're creating hello spreads. And like, other people like how press are just like park pocketing that arbitrage.

Yeah, I played that very badly. Honestly, I'm very ashamed of myself for how badly I played that. I I if I could go back in time, I would just like deposit all my like Ethan too age and just collect the massive funding and call it a day and just my life,

Like 75% right

Now. Last I checked ft experts, it was like 350% annualized or something and saying like

getting

Paid massively, like I've made 1%, almost 1% today on my long just from the funding,

which

is hilarious.

But

his hal's way of playing the future spreads was really smart and I saw that and I was like, oh, I'm stupid. That

was

so simple and beautiful and it was literally free money. It was free arbitrage and that's why I love crypto though, because I feel like you can really have an edge here. Like that was not that hard to think through. I just didn't think through it, right? Whereas in the trad fire world, like a lot of this stuff gets zapped away by like quants with supercomputers before you can even think about the idea and here there's just like bags of money lying around still. It's like, it's so crazy to me. Huh

huh.

Armand why don't you take over? Let's go to some questions that you've even seen some questions in the chat and in the discord

maybe. Yeah. No questions only shots.

That

is that is the main request. I

don't think that's a question.

Yeah. Well questions or comments or funny funny comments. I may read a funny comment. Drop it. All right. One question is if the ethereum surge not emerge will drop gas fees by 1000 X shouldn't emerge lower the issuance to 99.9% 90% reduction in. Issuance is not enough. My comments.

The answer is no. Those things are uncorrelated. And also this the surge won't drop transaction fees by that much. Yeah, I mean I'll drop it by a lot, but not that much.

So that initial assumption isn't correct.

Yeah, that's that's, it's like connecting to very distant things. I don't really understand it.

Um This might be for you steven or anybody. Can someone explain the spread between spot and perp. Why is it so high? Yeah, I saw that this morning. I was um I was longing a Perp and it was like 1560 when the spot was like 1575, which is pretty outrageous. I I just think there's just insane demand for the perps, right? Like funding is a way to sort of equalize that demand but at the end of the day, like somebody has to take the other side of the trade and even if you crank the, the funding up to infinity and still there's not somebody wanting to take the other side of the trade at that price, then eventually price just goes down. So I think that is oh God, speaking of price going down scandal, just absolutely nuked here. Um I'm okay, I think anyway. But yeah, I got like I really got really close to my stop there um Yeah, I don't know, I feel, I feel like trading right now is just, it's like suicide. I think the volatility for the next few days at least it's going to be absurd. And I don't know, I recommend everybody just sit on their hands for for a bit and just watch the fireworks.

Yeah, the experts only. And yeah,

we

kind of covered this in one, you know, one of our episodes of you know, going from Hudler to trader, I think it was like five episodes ago, but maybe like a short version of the compilation, a sort of distillation of that answer. Um trading strategies for non traders, I think a lot of people, their first question is just like very basic around platforms, uh methodologies, things to keep in mind how to go from non trader slash Hodler to trade strategies, especially on some of the things that were just discussed today. Mhm Sorry, what was that? I was staring at a chart

Stephen trying to figure out

if it's

if his limit

limit orders triggering, I'm not getting multitasking. I'm just trying to make sure I'm not liquidated. Right,

steven, Are you tilting right now? Be honest?

No, no, this isn't like a size of position where I'm gonna cry or anything. But it's, it's, it's enough to make me, it's enough to make me watch.

Do

you want me to repeat it or just move on? Going from non trader to trader like really like just give me it, give me the like, okay, you're, you're waking up tomorrow and you want to start to think like a trader, as I said, we just covered it, you know, five episodes ago. But what's the, you know, taking the hour long version down to the, you know, 32nd version Uh step one is to realize that like huddling is sort of like a meme designs too. Make you be constant like exit liquidity for people. Um that wasn't always the case to be fair. I think coddling is like a fine strategy if you just nothing at all. I mean it

is,

it is a fair take because in order to trade like the first thing you have to do to trade is to do something other than just by the position and hold it forever. Like if you buy a position and hold it forever. you are you just, you're just like an investor? That's not, that's not a trade. So you have to first be comfortable with that idea. If you're not comfortable with that idea, you shouldn't trade right. You should also like probably punch yourself in the balls a few times and then make sure you're okay with like the pain because it's, it's a, it's a, it's not like a fun or, or tan, it's safer. I think that I don't know about this self inflicting pain, I think you just tan them and move on, you know, I think David, someone got a screenshot by the way, so you

know,

No, I think, I think a like a hybrid strategy for people is to just shift their investment time horizons to like 23 year type stuff because then at least you can sort of play cycles. Um I don't think you have to be particularly giga brain too By that like Keith accumulation. We had in 2020 and to take profits when it went like absolutely moon status on the way up, right? Like you didn't need, you didn't need a quant, you didn't need any fancy stuff, you just had to accumulate, have patients um trade around being able to hold positions for more than a year. You collect capital gains, that's like I know two years isn't trading, I said this was a gateway to trading swear works? God, let's chat. Oh I love you. Is

that one of your guys, is that one of my

guys might be one of your guys there are, I feel like that's a girl are our guys and gals.

It's

a good gateway for if you actually want to trade like I'm a big believer and set aside like a tiny amount of money and then just go trade it like, I don't know, watch some Youtube videos, uh join some discords, just try to figure out who's a good trader, who's a bad trader, try a bunch of stuff like you're you're gonna lose money, you're gonna pay for lessons, right? But like I I kind of feel like that's the best way to do it. You just, you just jump in the fire with small amounts of capital like enough to kind of get your juices going a little bit, but not so much that you're, you're, you're going to get wrecked and I I think that having the real money there and just kind of just doing stuff like if you, I think if you are constantly learning and you're constantly iterating and you're constantly like asking questions and just every day evaluating everything you're doing. I think eventually you will will figure stuff out like if you're, if you're built for that. Um but like I don't think there's like a book you can read, I don't think there's like a college course you can take, it's like, and and it's it's hard and sort of unpleasant, even though it's it's it's glamorized, but you know, that's that's that's what I would do,

I will say, like, you know, between the four of us on the Alfalfa podcast, I'd say, you know, steven and eric are definitely the more active traders where Armand and I, you know, kind of more long term investors. Um And one thing I've learned from from both of

you. Yeah,

we think, I think, yeah. Um but one thing I've learned from you guys is that, and it doesn't get to play a lot with with traders is that the best traders actually focus a lot more on risk management than they do, you know, trying to, trying to rip gains, right? And um specifically you and eric have have talked about, you know, when, when sizing bets, when looking at trades, you're obviously looking for asymmetric risk return, but you know, you're also making sure that you don't lose a large amount of money on any single trade because you lose money, you're you're out of a job in terms of a trader. So I don't know any kind of risk management guidelines that that you think are um good to keep in mind because I think it doesn't get as much as much play as, you know, the upside returns that that most traders talk about.

Yeah, so I think that's something huge that you bring nick to the discussion almost every week and that's the kind of approach that you take, it's that my uh sort of pathway to trading is really minimizing risk and you like to have fun with it. I think I really like that aspect of what you do, which is like you take a small amount and you go, okay, this is this is gonna be my hedge, this is gonna be my little hedge bag, and I'm gonna have fun with this, and I think that's a really healthy way to do it, but you also don't have a lot of time to be able to to do it as a full time sort of trader the way steven does, and then that's where we tap into what he's doing and learn and you're sort of extrapolating that and tapping into that and going like what would that look like in a five minute version in my day, which I think is like a really great smart way to do it. I think um like you said like the number, the number one thing, a lot of people think that trading is predicting price movement and it's like at least to me it's not it's managing risk capping downside and just putting yourself in favorable positions where if you're right, you reap like a large reward relative to what you lose. Um And you you plan ahead for multiple scenarios ahead of time, like you're not like I think it's going to go do this, you're like, if price goes here, I'm gonna long under these circumstances and if it goes here, I'm gonna short under these circumstances and a lot of guys get heat on twitter, right? The meme is like, oh, so it could go up or down, thanks and they want people to be Nostradamus, but that's, it's not really how it, it's not really how it works, you know? Um somebody here asked the decent thing was dragged by the way, Stephen, what a lie that you can't multitask. You literally responded to that trading comment in the middle of your rants. So you actually are a phenomenal, phenomenal, phenomenal. I'm not lying, I have no recollection of

that.

Just do it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I can't process like two things. I, I can't multi thread, very bad multi thread or I can go like really deep on, on, on one thread, but like two things I, I am like just absolutely terrible at multitasking. Um Yeah, some guy asked a good question here though, is like, do you keep like separate accounts? Do you have like a spot? Yeah, like I have, I have separate accounts, like I segments into sort of long term spot stuff and I often just sort of like by Like this year, I've been buying a lot of of nukes and just just hedging, right? So like I'll buy and then if I get kind of sketched out on the market, like I might short with like 20% of that portfolio and instead of selling and and I do like that approach personally. Um I also segment accounts like I have like a look, I guess, I guess my Hodler account is not really in an exchange, it's it's in a wallet and it just, you know, just sits there. But even on the exchange, like I have, I do like I do longer term kind of swing trading and I also, I I think I'm a bad day trader, but I still have a day trading account and I keep it separate from the other accounts and I'm like, it just helps me mentally segment, it's like, okay, what I'm in this account, I'm day trading and I'm not risking any of the funds and the other account and in this account I'm I'm range trading or you know, doing the more midterm stuff. So I like that. But I think you gotta do what works for you. So you're

Holding on 2.0

eight. That's a nasty nasty wick down. Yeah.

Alright, so let's take a look at the BTC ratio. We're just below. Yeah, we're basically at .08. Um

Is your friend,

It's going, it's going to .3, we're going to have one of great lives.

Where where is the double, you know, David one I think is one of the roll ups, you're like, okay, well there's going to be a flipping and then there's going to be the multiple flip innings after that? Like the double flip.

Yeah,

I haven't heard about that happening, but

I'm gonna, I'm gonna totally run with that and then there's, it's

a flip, but you've done a full lap around the course. I like that.

It's the second flip. Yeah.

So what's

the, what's the exact price of the flipping? Like what point? Oh 16 ish five ish.

Go to ratio gang dot com.

Okay. Can I safely go to that live?

Okay. Alright,

perfect.

Oh, flipping .1589. There you go. I

like the confetti action on this

site. Yeah. Confetti action is because we're halfway there.

Okay. So like this site, I've never used this before. This is

amazing.

So um David, when you, when you play this trade, you're obviously using some leverage, right? And because when I, when I

think about,

you know, buying spa teeth and, and you know, thinking about a 10-K Ethan above, you know, we're talking multiples return, but when we're talking about trading, I don't know, a 100.55 ratio to a 0.8 or maybe even a 0.15 um doesn't sound as as juicy as just buying spotty, but I imagine that's where the leverage comes into play and where you can get some

right. So I've taken some of my spot and I have made a long a leverage, long btc position with that spotty. So I I get more amp on my spot if it goes up versus Bitcoin.

Wait, how did you make that position? Did you just do it in? Are they?

Yeah.

Yeah,

yeah. Yeah. Keep it simple. I don't have to worry. I can sleep well at night um cuts out the macro market most of the time and, and like usually lately like you would still get kind of messed by the macro market because either would go down versus Bitcoin when the crypto prices as an industry would go down. But not lately. Not lately lately, it's been doing just fine.

Yeah, like I was saying earlier, I mean I, I feel like the tide shifted a while ago and I think a lot of people have awakened to that,

but

a lot of people haven't yet um used to just be such a meme like this Bitcoin goes down and takes the market with it. It really does feel

like the market

doesn't care anymore. Like I don't know if it feels that way to you. Maybe you're a little roast into glasses but like I don't feel like the market cares about Bitcoin right now. I feel like the market cares about Eve and I don't know maybe that's,

I don't know if both of those things are true but I've definitely cause those are separate statements right? The market doesn't care about Bitcoin. The market then cares about Ethan. I'm not sure that second one is 100% true even though I want it to be true but I definitely have gotten like just a sense of just like Bitcoin maxi cope is all over the place and even like if you're in Salon a or avalanche or even like an competitor, you still don't care about Bitcoin, like no one cares about Bitcoin these days. It's just like the boring asset that even if you believe in it, you don't even talk about it and honestly like when crypto is such an intention driven economy, it doesn't really matter if there's holders and it matters like what what are people talking

about? Yeah maxis are talking more about Ethan. They certainly are Btc and any anything that's I mean I feel like people don't know but in in the in the weekly roll up, you guys have a Bitcoin section that you you typically it's saved for some

Bitcoin. Bitcoin

things actually go there but there's actually nothing, there's

no news, there's nothing to talk

about.

Oh man.

All

right, so we see the oh man, we had a nasty little candle there so I don't know, we'll see what kind of price action we get. Let's see how many how many hours?

1596 were fine, fine about like 2.5.

I think there's there's gonna be volatility. It's just it's gonna go all over the place right now.

Just sit

back and you just sit back and chill at this point.

A long night.

Yeah it's gonna be a long weekend days, I don't know, I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen, but like if you're, if you're trading with tight stops right now, you're completely eft.

So David, like uh I mean for anyone who hasn't worked with software engineers before, you know, watching codedeploy isn't the most exciting thing in the world. There's no real way to know, you know, exactly. Did things go well unless you want to look at like an exception log, which is again not the most exciting thing to watch. So how are you gonna be like tuning in to just uh you know, see how things are going, when things go live, what's what's happening and things going

well. Yeah, the, the interesting about how this is gonna work is that things are going to look like they're broken no matter what and it's going to freak out a lot of people who don't know that because like ethereum, I was actually hoping to talk about this ethereum isn't one canonical thing, right? There are many clients and then there are many clients connecting with other clients. And like when you stitch all those things together, those become ethereum, but then you also have stuff like ether scan and in fear a and meta mask is like layers around that. And each one of these things are like part of the broader ethereum, you know, ethereum isn't like, there's no center point, there's no place where ethereum is or is not, there's only like these interwoven components that make up ethereum and so it starts with the clients and the clients, like some clients can break and if the majority of clients don't break, we're good, we're Gucci, it's fine. And then on top of that, like, one of the reasons why it's taken so long to make this merge happen is like, not only do we want the clients to go through flawlessly, but we'd also like the next layer out of infrastructure to also go through flawlessly. So that's like stuff like, you know, in, you know, in fear a meme pools, blah, blah blah blah. Um until like all of that would also be great if it didn't break, but if it did break, ethereum would still be fine. And so like there's this like shell, it's an onion is an onion multiple layers and we're trying to make the multiple as many layers as possible, not break as we go into the merge, but so long as that makes it through, it's fine. The merger is going to be fine. We'll fix the right remaining layers after the fact, but the point is, is like ethereum, the merge is supposed to be just like good enough. It's just like most of it is supposed to not break and the parts that do break, we'll just be able to repair themselves after the fact uh and so like what from a user perspective, if you're sitting here on your browser, like refreshing a page, like that's the thing that's gonna break because it's so it's like all of the layers away and so like all these like norm ease and people that don't understand this concept are gonna be washing the merge and they're gonna see like red bars on their screen and like the merge didn't work, like the Blockchain is not sinking, the website isn't sinking with the Blockchain, blah blah blah.

And we're not actually looking at like what's really going on here. Uh And so you're gonna get clarity about 30 minutes later and then you're gonna get even more clarity like two hours later. Uh But like if you're looking like, is this a binary thing, let me refresh my page to see if the merger worked or not, Like you're gonna freak out because you're going to think that it didn't work, but like you need all the surrounding infrastructure to catch up with this transition that is made. That's gonna take like 30 minutes.

I'm gonna put this one binary website, only one binary website that I think you mentioned on a previous livestream has emerged dot com yes or no, and you get a quick answer. So confirmation knows the answer right now.

Yeah,

yeah, but but but David made a good point, like it is not one thing, it's it's all these different layers and it was really interesting to hear that, you know, if we look at all the risks, most of risks reside with with the clients and you know I do I don't know if there's a scenario where we have to fork or some form of like reverting back but it you know that

it's just there's, I just don't know how that's possible. That would be the weirdest scenario.

Yeah. Yeah. And you know it seems like the clients are the ones we're gonna have to do the updating and you only need, what is it 66 participation?

Yeah, I mean yeah, I mean even if it was below 66% like if it's below 66% then like the client teams where the bugs are just get to work and fix it and get it above 66%. The thing is like we've had the most recent shadow, fork it was like a 95% participation rate And like all the other shot of forks before that we're like a little bit less but like there's money on the line on this one. Like everyone's gonna lose money if they're not online. And so it's gonna be the most incentivized thing to get right out of all the ones that have already gotten right at 95%. So it would have to be such a new thing that hasn't been discovered yet. It would it would be coming from so far out of left field would be crazy I'm leaving like all my receipts on the table for like weeks.

Right? I mean, I mean the the client teams are the I think I got to be the ones who are um in addition to the application teams, but the client teams specifically have to be the one who might be possibly more nervous than than cordes at this point. Um And I wonder, you know, I think how pressed in the unique one as an investor who's been involved in these calls. I certainly haven't. Um But I wonder how involved most of the client teams have been in these um test scenarios. Um But you gotta think they gotta be more nervous than than maybe the core

dev's

Yeah, I think really the talking tim baker or listening to Timbuktu and Danny Ryan. Like it's not like they're necessarily nervous. It's just like they know there's gonna be some post merge clean up to do and so they're just like waiting for that mess to come their way to figure out what needs to be cleaned up.

Are they in

the janitors,

are they in the U. S. Time zones or are they spread across the world? Because it's going to be

spread across the world? It's mostly us in europe. There's one I think Nimbus is in Australia. Um Yeah, so it's somewhere between tim is in Vancouver. I think the farthest east you go is like Germany and then you have like Nimbus, which is in

Australia.

Nice,

David, there's a there's a guy in the Chat who is asking a legitimate question which I know you've answered a lot, but he'd probably appreciate a quick answer from you. He wants to know how proof of stake deals with a 51% attack.

51% attack. Okay. Um So a 51% attack is different in proof of stake. Um but not really. So like in It always depends on like the facts and circumstances, right? Like why is 51% of the steak going in one direction and like Uh it depends, it depends on why it's happening and like how how like is it malicious? I'm assuming it's malicious. So like uh 51% of all eat is like processing the bad blocks and like forking the chain. Uh the way that like it's uh I would need to brush up on it. I'm not in the right space and its objective

to the Justin drake episodes. I feel like those were those are very good and just sort of for the

Blockchain you get slashed right? And so like if you are the 51%, what you're really doing is you're Is your censoring the 49% and if you are, if you're the 49% is being censored and say like the 49% is the good guys like the theory and broad community and 59% is like coin base ordered by ofac. Then we do like a user activated soft fork. That's what you do there. But really like we need more like determined. We need, I need more like things to go off of to talk about. Like why is it being 51% attack?

But David, I mean when we were talking about a 51% attack or hypothetical one, I mean, are we talking about some of these like liquid staking options? I mean like, I'd imagine like we're basically talking like little and coin base in order to make up 51%. So I mean, we do have something

like two of the biggest entities I think.

Yeah. So there would definitely be some collusion in that scenario. I don't think uh, everything's decentralized enough,

right? And plus remember it's not like coin base and lid, oh, uh, if those people start like doing the attack, like users just withdraw their ease

and

if they don't then like we have bigger things to worry about.

Yeah, I mean, the game theory certainly plays out from there. Right? And yeah, there's, there's bigger things to, to worry about for sure. Um, can I get a check in, what are you guys drinking right now? Because I brought the bottle of Tequila in in the office here and I've been slowly pouring away. Um, I'm going

a little too hard on the right now and I have to wake up early to fly to erIC. So is waiting for me and I'm a little worried about the level of aggressiveness waiting inside of that. Is that, is that the bar with like the saddles on the barstool. It's, it's a rite of passage. It's a Jackson Hole rite of passage. That is the one indeed the bear that, that was killed by a man with his hands.

Yeah,

David. When do you get into Jackson Hole? When am I gonna see you?

Um get in a couple hours before the reception on friday

friday

At four p. 4 p. m.

Friday. Are we staying in the same hotel?

I

think a better truck. It brother. Couple hours. That's gonna be fun

dude, I'm gonna be so hung over.

What time's your flight? I

landed like four p.m. On friday.

On friday. We're leaving tomorrow steven.

So we'll

lay the ground where

not looking forward to that. Don't you

might be able to tell I'm having a party at my place.

Don't, don't miss the ceremony, David because I have some taint jokes in my officiant speech. So please be on time. No

way.

Um Alright,

any

last question.

My my, Oh

my God.

Beautiful. You

gotta turn off your screen. Turn off your screen.

Oh yeah,

we're still just looking at a chart. Just looking at this chart charts,

but here we go. We got a nice little cowboy gear set up bolo tie, tie and a belt buckle also have the tags on them. Clearly not the type of person to wear. Have a lot of cowboy

gear, Jackson,

David,

you're arriving friday or saturday.

Okay.

No, that's just the cowboy party. The actual wedding is,

yeah, not, not,

I don't know. I thought it was weird doing party reception is after the ceremony on saturday. There we go.

I,

okay, that's good.

That's good.

All right, plenty of time for festivities. I'm glad the banquets account is adding context in the

chat. Oh

man, guys on the, on the alpha alpha pod. We talked about a lot, but we also don't talk about talk about God, we talked about, we talked about other things we talk about, we talk about porn

guns,

homelessness.

These are just

words. What is all this? What is all this? Speech control, David. But

there's a

whole week's worth

of Alfalfa podcast that includes David Hoffman, including a little politics episode, including a little life

episode.

Yeah,

okay, For for the full context for all the bank list listeners that listen to me hanging out in SAn Diego. These are the friends that I met in SAN Diego and they have their podcast, Alfalfa podcast. Uh, and so since they were doing the merge Livestream, I was like, oh, I'll show, I'll show up on your guys merge livestream, but their livestream didn't work. And so only the bank list. Livestream, that's why we're all here today. Uh, meet my san Diego friends. Also the co host of the Alfalfa podcast. So here's a link to the Youtube channel. You guys can go subscribe them

in there.

It's a lot of overlap between the bank this community and the Alfalfa community.

For sure. For sure. Especially in our discord, there's a lot of bank less people in there. And David was so kind enough to host us on a layer zero, which was a lot of fun. We hung out at David's house and chat a little teeth and, you know, forecast for the future. But that, that certainly helped, you know, Alfalfa podcast, you know, like really get a nice little kick start.

There's a really nice comment here by Luca Nascimento. Benedetti says it sounds like an alright podcast. Thank you, luke.

I

think on the, on the layer zero podcast we talked about like bank. This is where you go to like, you go to school, you go to learn, you go to like, you know, get your class notes and and and learn up on on a new topic. And then Alfalfa is kind of like, and this is maybe why we're drinking on this. Livestream is it's, it's where you go after class, you go to the bar and you go hang out to think about, what do we think about this? Is there a way to make money off this and you know, chat about it with some of your your close friends. Um so that's been what we're up to. Maybe why? It's maybe the first time you're seeing David have a sip of alcohol on.

Yeah,

gradually,

then suddenly.

Yeah.

Uh So

you see me drinking friday morning on the roll ups,

You might need to on that on that roll up, you might need to uh you know, pair some coffee with some uh some alcohol to keep.

Yeah,

exactly, exactly. Um Have you seen any?

Alright guys, I got a long night ahead of me, so I'm gonna have to hear something.

No, it's time for me to go to the bar. If you're easily offended, please don't subscribe. Otherwise. We'll see you in our discord on the podcast. And David, thanks for hopping in man. And you saved us actually with the uh the stream because ours. Thank you brother.

If if anyone has a link to a Youtube streaming for dummies, send us the link. But it's been fun. Big night ahead of us. See you guys soon.

Alright, thanks for hanging out guys.

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