SCREAMING CRYPTO SIGNAL FLASHES AFTER 385 DAYS! - Transcripts
because there are under $23,000, and Bitcoin you can see there that ambitious has made another higher high, not only on the daily chart, but actually if you zoom out and you look at the weekly, so let's we can zoom out and look at that weekly, what you can see is if Bitcoin even on the weekly chart has clearly printed a higher high. But that's not what the show is about today. That's not what the show is about today. The show is about another indicator, which is a much bigger indicated in the Bitcoin indicator, which has been on a downtrend for the past 385 days, and that indicator has now broken for the first time since the beginning of the crypto bear market. So we're gonna look at that indicator and then I've got a challenge to anyone who's a bear. Tomorrow we're hosting a Twitter spaces and if you're a bear and if you don't believe at the bottoms end, I don't care who you are, I want you to bring your data and bring your facts and let's hash it out on Twitter spaces.
Cool, so let's get on with this show.
Get the fuck out of bed, bitch, go. Every day that goes past, more and more people believe this rally, more and more people believe Australia. In fact, earlier today, I tweeted something and I said, you know if you're a bear, let us know that you're a bear and come and you know bring your data and bring your facts and most people actually said, well the reason I'm a bear is because I'm hoping that the market will come down and give me some kind of entry points, so that's kind of the sense of a not there. Anyway, today it's not about that, today we are gonna be talking about an indicator which has broken, which hasn't broken since the beginning of the crypto bear market and this indicator has now broken. So I wanna show you this indicator. Let me show you this. So it's actually not in a crypto chart. The indicator is actually on the broader markets. And if you look at the broader markets, what you can see is that there has been a trend line that the broader markets have been following since the fourth of January. Now that's about a year ago. And that is when the crypto bear, I mean the crypto bear market officially I think started in November. So 22nd of November.
But since then, markets have been on a downtrend. And what you can see is here that the S&P 500 actually broke that downtrend. So it has tested that downtrend before on the 12th of December. It was just a wick. It came straight back down. But for the first time yesterday, we actually closed above that downtrend. And you can see it much better in this chart over here. Now, my question is, with all of these indicators that are breaking every single day, you're getting a higher high on the daily in Bitcoin and then you've got the higher high and the weekly and you've got the break of trend. So if we go back to Bitcoin, my question is whether this is enough to turn the bulls, the bears, into bulls. I'm not sure. What I'm going to do is I'm actually going to
bring Gareth Sottaway. Gareth, good to see you, my friend. Good to see you, too,
Ran. How's it going? Good. So listen, at what point do the bears become bulls? What do the bears need
to be Campbell's. I need to know this. So I think for me when it comes to the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 absolutely closed above that key level. But number one, you haven't confirmed it yet. And number two, for me to really be bullish, I need to know that the Fed is starting to lower rates, right? This market has been this addicted market to low rates, free money, printing money. And right now, yes, the Fed is probably only going to raise 25 basis points on February 1st, but they're not lowering it for the foreseeable future. So I actually want to show you guys a chart if I
can here. Of course you can. I mean, when a chart, I told you when a chart just comes onto my show,
and he doesn't have charts, I get very nervous. You know what I mean? Yeah, absolutely. So if we look at this chart of the S&P 500 or the spiders, you can absolutely see you closed above that. Now, again, the market has a history in bear markets of getting the majority of people to become bullish and then ripping it off and taking it back to the downside. So number one, a close above is good, but it's not a confirmed breakout yet. We would need a secondary close above the high of
yesterday to confirm that. Number two, you have to look, wait, wait, stop, stop, wait, stop, stop. So are you saying that if today we close above that, or tomorrow we close the above that
that is the confirmation that you're looking for? Yeah. So, so the way to confirmation signal works is one close above can be a fakeout. Institutions do this all the time. They lure people in, they close it above, everyone gets bullish. The real telltale signal for me is when you close above that high here. So that's one of the signals I look for. Now keep in mind, if we close back below the line, then it resets again. So if we don't confirm before closing back below the line, then you have to start from ground zero again at that point. But right now, if we were to close today above this high, then this would be a confirmed breakout on the S&P 500. Now keep in mind, the S&P is down about 20 points on the morning session already. So we got to watch and see how that behaves throughout the day.
The other thing to point out here is look at this chart, and this is what I fear for the S&P 500. This is a chart of Alibaba, right? And what you can see here is there's this beautiful trend line, much like the S&P 500 all the way down. And then look down here, it broke out, stayed above, and then look at what ended up happening here. You ended up trading up, and then you ended up making new lows before finally coming back. So this is a classic case of getting the bulls on board and then stopping them out when you retook out this pivot low right down here before making a true bottom. So I'm more on the campus, this is what
will end up happening. But that's, I mean, that would be a good thing because if I look at this with my charting knowledge, I say, okay, we've had a break of the trend line, then we had a retest of the trend line, which is pretty much as expected. So you're going to go up, and then you're going to go down, but you're still above the trend line. And then what you can see is that we're printing a high high now. So I mean, if we haven't printed it yet, we're on the way to printing a high high,
so up, retest, straight back up again. Right? Right. So that's one possibility, but with that Alibaba chart, we did see new lows being made before the latest rally back up. So again, that's what I'm going to keep an eye on here. Number one, also keep in mind that yes, you've broken this line, but you haven't taken out the recent high right here. So that will also be something. So as of now, you would say it's continuing to make a lower low, lower highs. Now, if you can break above here, so if you confirm and then really break out here, then yeah, I got to go bullish. There's no doubt about it. At that point, that would be a bullish signal
to take out this range. Okay. So you're saying if we print a high, if we break the trend and we print a higher high, which would be at on your level for 10, right? I think I think I can see it at 14. If we do those things, then Gareth officially flips bullish. Yeah. Yeah. I need to
know. I need to know what, what, what it takes to flip you guys, you know what I mean? And again, keep in mind that we're technicians, right? I'm a technician. So, so for me, it doesn't matter what my gut tells me, my gut doesn't know anything, frankly, my mind, my heart, it's all about the charts. And that's the only way I keep a kind of a level head in this market that is crazy. Like crypto markets, stock markets, I just say, listen, well, what are the charts tell me? And that's what
I go with. It's a probability factor. Okay. Now take me to Bitcoin, show me the Bitcoin chart. While Gareth's doing that, guys, remember smash up a like subscribe to channel. If you're not already subscribers, we ticked up by another thousand subscribers. Now they're 597,000 subscribers on the road to 600,000 subscribers. We are at a higher high. Also, we are not shadow band anymore. Believe it or not. Some people are telling me that they're still getting, they're getting notifications. And lastly, 2000 likes today.
And we give away the Rolex because no one got the Rolex yesterday. Believe it or not. No one, no one claimed the Rolex. Crazy, crazy. Five hours to claim the Rolex. All right. Smash that like, let's go, go, go. Gareth, show me Bitcoin. Tell me what you see. I'll tell you what I see. Let's see if we can, if we can align
on something here. Okay. So, so crypto Bitcoin here, you came up to the FTX pretty high right here. You've actually, you consolidated, then you broke out. You're now consolidating again, as long as this pattern continues, there's upside to 25,000 in the near term. Um, having said that, that's still a powerful low pivot here and a high pivot of this. And for me, at least when I zoom out on the chart, I would still be in the camp that we're still in a bear market in crypto until we see something else. So again, 25K would be a very pivotal level. That's where I've said I wouldn't start shorting Bitcoin. If it gets up there with my members, I have, I have a long on Bitcoin. We're still holding. That would be where I would exit that and flip it into
a short. When would you become a bull at one level here? Would you say, you know what, if it gets
there, then I'm becoming bullish. So, so to me, a major level would be this one. And if you look over here where the, where the bull market really took off in 2021, and we had the M top here, this area right here is going to be unbelievably important right here. So to me kind of just right around the 30,000 level, we start trading above the 30,000 level. Then you can't deny that we've now entered into this kind of this area where we had that M top back in 2021. We've back, we've gotten back above these lows here, which was that little midpoint. That would be where I would say, okay, now to me, at least the charts are telling me that this could be a low down here. That's a
lasting low. What's your bear case for Bitcoin? Are you still looking at a 12,000? Is that still
in the cards? Yeah. Yeah. So the bear case until proven otherwise, according to the charts is still that you're still looking at 12 to 13,000 as your next downside with a worst case kind of in that
9 to 10,000 range. What could take us there? Like, I mean, if I look at the macro picture, the macro picture looks good. What could take us to like, I mean, only two things that I could think of that would take us to 12,000 is a binance collapse or a tumbles collapse. And the absence of a bonus collapse or itLaughs. I don't see how we could get anywhere near 8,000, given the macro
has turned so much. Yeah, and you're right. So I mean, there's two possibilities. One is a Black Swan event like an FTX that is bigger, a Binance. I'm not necessarily leaning in that direction. The other factor, and in fact, there's three, the other factor would be that there is some sort of regulatory kind of rollout that is very scary to crypto markets. And maybe it kills a lot of the alts. We'll have to see about that. I'm hopeful that I think regulation will be a positive for the industry, but there's always a risk, right? When you're dealing with politicians, there's always going to be a risk that something crazy comes out of it. And the last thing for me, and this is the most likely scenario if Bitcoin's going to go lower, is that it's going to be a risk off panic. Meaning that for me, I'm looking at a recession occurring in the second half of this year.
The investing public will look to the Fed to bail us out with printing money and dropping interest rates. And ultimately, I think the Fed's going to say, nope, sorry, inflation's too high. And the markets are going to freak out. I have a downside risk of about 25% further dropping the S&P 500. And then if that happens, I mean, if the S&P is dropping 25%, ask yourself, well,
where does Bitcoin go during that? Can I just make a case here? So if I listen to what you're saying, and you said the word recession, which is actually a very scary word for people who don't listen to our show or don't watch our show, but I'm not scared of a recession. And I want to just show you the data points just so we can align here on the data points. If I look at the data points and I look at the inflation numbers for the past six months, so July, August, September, October, November, and December, you've got 0.9% CPI. Annualize that, add a little bit of fluff. You've got yourself 2% inflation, which is the Fed's inflation target. So largely the Fed has inflation under control, right? I don't think that there can be an inflation surprise because the Fed is actually holding us on a very, very, very tight leash. And they're saying, we're going to keep this restrictive monetary policy. We're not going to let markets run, but we've got you back to 2% inflation. In terms of interest rates, we're forecasting a 25 basis point rate hike now with a 1% chance of 50 basis point rate hike.
We are forecasting or the market is forecasting the same in March, but then for every other meeting this year, there is no interest rate hike forecast. So what the market is telling you is inflation is under control. The Fed's probably not going to increase rates much past the March meeting, which we know that we all agree on that, which means that the last part of it is going to be the recession and the recession I think is maybe inevitable. So we get this recession and then what does the Fed have to do to stimulate the economy after the recession? Because remember, the recession is a lagging indicator of all the previous rate hikes. It's the result of all the previous rate tax. And so we get this recession, and then the Fed is forced to start lowering interest rates. Maybe that's maybe it's a dream scenario. Maybe it's a logical scenario. Maybe logic doesn't, maybe you can dream that markets would be logical. I don't know. You tell me.
Yeah. So I think what you're talking about is the Goldilocks scenario where it kind of all works out perfectly and we get that sub 2% inflation, and the Fed can start printing again when we get into a recession. For me, I'm kind of in the camp that I think there's going to be this kind of sticky inflation that's just above 2% between 3 and 4%. And I think that's going to handcuff the Fed from really being able to simulate. And it's going to put us in this longer term multi year recessionary period, where we're slightly negative on growth for a long period of time. And I think when you look at the equity markets and earnings starting to come down because of recessions, that's really where the fear is going to come in this long term recession without the bailout from the Fed.
Well, before I let you go, and I've got one or two more minutes with you, time with you is precious. This is from Michael Barry. He's the guy from the big short for those people who don't know, he tweeted this this morning, he said, maybe, and he alluded, he went for this 2001, and called it a bounce, called it a relief rally. And he says, maybe, this is where we're at. What do you think?
Yeah, I agree. I think that that's good. Like, like, we just have one of the longest expansionary periods in history, right? I mean, basically, we haven't had a recession aside from the COVID panic from 2009 to 2021. So you have to look at it and like, at some point, you have above trend growth for such a long period, because the Fed is stimulating. At what point do we pay the piper and have below trend growth for an extended period of time? And that's what I'm worried about is that at some point, you kill off the patient when you give them too much drugs. And if the Fed goes back to printing, I mean, that's that's the worry for me.
Speaking of drugs, I think I've got one or two drugs, if you come to South Africa, that will make you very bullish, maybe for the last four or five hours, you'll be you'll be an absolute bull. I get them. I get those drugs from Jimmy Garrett. Listen, I know you need to go because the markets opening. Thank you so much for your time. So much love from the Vanser fam.
Thank you so much, man. Take care.
Listen, time with Gareth is absolutely amazing. And we called him this morning and I said, Look, I know you're busy, but I need to get you on the show. So he came on with short notice. I mean, so it's great to have everyone. All right, listen, do me a favor, smash up those likes. What are the numbers of likes looking like 2000 likes we give away a Rolex, it is the same Rolex as 780 likes. That's the Rolex we're giving away or similar to this. It's a blackface Submariner. You need to get 2000 likes when we get 2000 likes, we can have that discussion. In the meantime, tomorrow, we're hosting a spaces. It is the ultimate of the bulls versus the bears. It's like the great debate, basically, because I want to know what these bears, what data do these bears want, in order to come to the other side?
That's what I want to know. I've seen a lot of data that tells me that we're out of this recession. And there were out of this, this bear market. And I'm not trolling, I really really really want to chat to bears who have not just hot air opinions, but actually can show me on charts, can show me on chain, can show me anywhere else why they are still bullish, why they are still bearish. And what it would take for them to come to the other side because I'm going to arrive tomorrow and I'm going to arrive tomorrow with data. So when I come to this, when I come here, I'm going to arrive with data. I'm going to arrive with lots of data and I've got some of the data. Yeah, with me, you know what? I want to show you some of the data that I'm looking at. So the first thing that I'm going to arrive at is to say, look, the Kramer indicator has spoken. He said a while back and he said, let's get out. He said get out a good chance to get out of crypto since then obviously the markets up much more than 40 percent But coins are 40 percent also up 200 percent.
He did it again yesterday So what was it today and he warns investors to stay away from crypto and stick to gold I should have asked Gareth about gold So that's one indicator. The other indicators are much more much more Scientific they're unchained and off-chain indicators and I want to show these to you because this is the data that I'm gonna arrive tomorrow But the great debate on and if you're not already subscribed to the great debate Go to my Twitter now It's crypto Manran and just set a reminder to join the great debate tomorrow straight after show I will remind you again on the show Okay I will remind you again on the show but I mean I'm looking at the data the data tells me as follows it And it really paints an unbelievable picture. So what's the picture? The first thing is that Short-term holders and long-term holders of Bitcoin are now both at a profit. So, the percentage of short-term holders' supply, in profit has reached 92%. So, you've got short-term holders who are now in profit. And, the last time we saw that was May 2021 and November 2021 high. You've got the realized price of Bitcoin above the... You've got the price above the realized price which in a nutshell means that most holders of Bitcoin or the average holder of Bitcoin is in profit. And when people are in profit, sentiment changes. And what you can see is that sentiment here has changed. I mean, a guy goes shopping once online.
And then every time that he accesses any site in the world, everybody knows exactly what he bought. Exactly. I bought these denims, I bought this shirt, I bought this, I bought this, and I bought this. Bad for G-Star because they just keep serving me ads for things that I've already bought. Anyway, what you can see is that the sentiment is starting to change. As I showed you this yesterday, as people go more and more into profit, sentiment starts to change. And we are now at 52, which is the first time we've been at 52 since, as I said to you before, April a year ago, and before that, February a year ago. There we go. This is the last time that we were at 52. And you can see here in February on the way up, or sorry, January, 1st of February on the way up was the last time that we were at 52. So the sentiment is clearly changing. What happens when the sentiment changes is that money starts to flow back into Bitcoin, right?
Someone says it could be a worst run. At least it's just close. I know exactly what you're talking about. Let's not, let's just forget about it and just continue with the show. So what we can see is that when the long-term holders and the short-term holders end profit, the sentiment changes. When the sentiment changes, more money flows into crypto. Now what you can see is that for the first time in a long time, we've seen an uptick in the number of stablecoins. So I saw it in an Excel spreadsheet here. And what you can see is if you take the total of USDT and USDC since the 10th of October, the number went down from 135 all the way down to 125. So we lost $10 billion worth of stables in crypto. Those are the stables that go onto the exchanges and are used to buy crypto. And for the first time, we've actually seen an uptick now, it's a small uptick, but it's the first time that we've seen signs that more money is actually starting to flow back into crypto.
Where does that money go to? Well, as soon as it's minted, it goes into Coinbase. What do people do with money in Coinbase? Well, they use that money to buy crypto and that drives the market app. Okay. Then from a technical point of you from technical point of view on the daily, higher, high on the weekly, higher, high, we're about the 200 day moving average. We have a higher low. So from it, we've got, we have volume. So we have huge volume over here. All of this tells me, I mean, this is the data that I'm going to bring to the debate tomorrow. And I hope that we can attract enough people. And what I want you guys to do is retweet this tweet and invite and tag people that you think should take the other side and let's see if we can get a good debate going.
Okay. Then I'm going to show you a couple of other indicators. There is one indicator that, so not a lot of metrics have a precise bottom level so far, but so far, the first hit of the 0.5 post top has marked a bottom when you're a bottom, every single, uh, uh, uh, uh, market. So here you can see the, uh, uh, spent, uh, the short term output spent output ratio. And what you can see here is that every single time that that touches a bottom, it's usually a price bottom. So you can see that that's happened over here. It's, it's the most accurate measure that there is so far, and you can see that every time that it hits a bottom, that's marked a bottom. The other metric that has always marked a bottom in all other Bitcoin bull markets is the halving. The halving is a key indicator of when bull market starts. I hate this metric because what that metric, because it's so reliable, it means that the cycle happens every four years, because that's how the halving works. And in the bear market, when people said, oh, well, we'll just wait for the halving for the next bull market. I was like, the halving sounds so far away.
But, but, but, but what we realized is that you don't actually have to wait for the halving for the market to start going up. Actually, 68% of the way to the halving is the definitive turning point. Now, where are we today? We are today at 68% of the way to the next halving. So another indicator that says, you know, this is an unchained indicator that shows that every time that we're 68% of the way to the Bitcoin supply being cut, then we're getting, we get another bull market. You can see it happened here that's where Bitcoin bottomed. it happened here, that's a Bitcoin bottomed and it happened. Yeah. That's where Bitcoin bottomed. So I'm bringing all of this to the table. Miners have stopped selling. You can see that the miners have stopped selling their tokens to exchanges.
There are a whole lot of other indicators that I saw. This is from a guy called Game of Trades. He says, we had the biggest short liquidation that we've had in a long time. The last time we had such a big short liquidation was July 2021. Then he looks at six other metrics on chain and off-chain metrics. He says there's an accumulation score. What he says is that large entities have been in deep accumulation mode since FTX collapse, which is the same accumulation or similar accumulation to the accumulation that we had in 2018 and the 2020 bottoms. So that's another metric that shows a bottom. You have the dormancy flow. The dormancy flow is when dormant coins are starting to move. It's when you break people who are real long-term huddlers and their coins are dormant and you had the lowest ever dormancy flow. So this is another metric that that shows you have reserve risks and he goes through a whole lot of of these things where he says here he says it's bitcoin is currently hovering around its realized price which is he calls this a generational buying opportunity.
The last time that we had it was in 2015-2016, then we had it in 2019 and 2020 with Covid and that's kind of where we are now. So when we get all of these indicators I have to say look 2022 was the bottom and from here we go up. This is what this is what I say this is what I'm bringing to debate tomorrow. So if you know anybody that that wants to debate tomorrow then bring them to debate and tell them to bring their data and bring their trust because it's not just going to be a debate where we just sit here and argue about, about lines on charts, but we actually need to bring real data. Okay. Um, Carl show disagreed with this. Carl must come onto this basis tomorrow and he must debate it. Um, you know, Michael Fender pop and I don't really agree on a lot of things, but we agree on this. We agree that 15,600 was the bottom. Actually he came here over the weekend. Um, he came here over the weekend and, um, well, not over the weekend. Last week he came to the bank to officers and he's, I mean, we've given him, um, we've given him if he wants to use our officers, to broadcast.
He's more than welcome to do it. Listen, I'm blocked by Capto. But if you guys are, are with couple, then invite him and say, look, you know, maybe we've had our disagreements but come and present your case on a Twitter spaces. I don't believe that he will have that he will have the thing, you know, and I don't callber explains lightly. For me, I don't call the bottom lightly because I know as a YouTube, if you call a bottom, then this peace will get maimed forever, you know, forever when there's another black swan, people will say, how did run? Not know that there was going to be another COVID should be, he should have known there was going to be another COVID or had it run now that violence was going to collapse. He should have known, you know, you should have known so it's risky. And that's why I'm so confident that we're near above them. Another thing that tells me we're near above him is that tokens are popping 50% in a day. And in fact, today, when we look at altcoins, here's another one. Okay. It's called the T network.
It's up 131% today. What this is, it's a merger between two tokens. I think it's called NuCypher and Keep3, or Keep Network, or whatever they call that network. It was an Android cranioproject. I wouldn't be buying it. I wouldn't be buying it. But what this does is it allows for it allocates jobs to multiple nodes. And so if you're running blockchain applications, instead of giving it all to one node and breaching your privacy, it allocates jobs to multiple nodes. So we have seen multiple of those. We saw Aptos up 100%. We saw Phantom. We've seen all of these tokens up over 100%.
That doesn't happen in a bear market. That's bull market type stuff. So that's exactly... That's one big bubble. It's a huge bubble. It's a huge bubble. So that's where I am. I'm also looking at previous bear markets. And this is what previous bear markets look like. We're tracking previous bear markets. After 400 days, we were in the bear market for 439 days. After 400 days, you've got to come out of the bear market and the cycle has to change.
The problem is that a lot of people don't see the change. So I don't know what they're waiting for. And I'm just worried that if you're one of those people and you're sitting on the sidelines, and you're out of the market, you're going to sit you and you're going to wait and wait and wait for the pullback. You know what? The pullback may come, but it may come when Bitcoin gets to 26,000, and it may come when we get to 27,000. We've even heard a YouTuber this morning, and says I'm waiting for ETH to pull back to one six. Bro, ETH was at one six two days ago. Why don't you buy? Now you're sitting here on the side, and you're waiting for ETH to go back to one six. What are you waiting for? You know what I do when, you know, what I do when, uh, when, when I start feeling FOMO, I deploy a very small amount of capital. So like, uh, you know, for example, when I started feeling FOMO about GMX, I invested, and the reason why I invested, I took a very small bite.
And the reason why I did that was just so that I wouldn't have as much FOMO if the market continued to run. And if the market came down, then I add to my position. If the market goes up, I add to my position, but I'm doing it from a point of of comfort. So, that's my thesis. that's the information that I'm bringing tomorrow to the debate. If anybody wants to please go here, retweet this, tag people that you think may be able to have an intellectual debate. We want an intellectual debate. We don't want noise. We just want an intellectual debate. But please tag people. Anyway, let's also talk about macro because that's another one of the big things. Gareth also spoke about macro and I think that macro is also an indicator that this market may have turned.
Why? Well, because as I said, I think that the inflation narrative is now behind us, annualized inflation. If you take the last six months of CPI and you add the map was 0.9 annualized that, well, then it's 2%. Okay. That's the Fed's target 2%. We see now that the Fed is not going to increase interest rates very much. We do have a big week this week. Let's not forget that. Let's not forget that this week we have the GDP numbers, which are coming out on Thursday. We have Microsoft reporting earnings. We've got to talk about earnings in a second. And on Friday, we've got a big number, which is a PCE.
That personal consumption expenditure is a big, big, big number. We've got to watch that number because that's the number that Powell watches in deciding around inflation. I think it's an absolute nothing burger. I think the market, I think even if PCE is Mrs. Expectations, Powell's still only increasing interest rates by 25 basis points. So don't panic about that. The other thing which we do have this week is Microsoft earnings. Now this is big because remember Microsoft represents 10% of the NASDAQ. So let's just have a look here. 11.875% of the NASDAQ is represented by Microsoft. Now, Microsoft have been kind of out of favor and Google have been this juggernaut that's been favored by investors. But recently or just before their earnings, Microsoft announces this thing with chatbot, with chat GPT, that they are investing $10 billion into chat GPT. But in the same tweet, in the same headline, what they said is they're going to fire 10,000 of their own stuff.
And I think it's, that's, I mean, it's a scary thing because what we're seeing now is we're seeing that as AI actually comes in, Microsoft is realizing that even chat GPT, which is the first iteration of AI can replace a whole lot of their, of their stuff. And I had a chart here. I just want to see if I can find it. Here it is. So chat GPT is, has now passed an MBA degree exam at Wharton. It passed a medical exam, a United States medical licensing exam. It outperforms college students. It's a, it would pass the AWS certified cloud practitioner exam. I mean, just get this list of accolades. And this is just the first application of AI. Everyone's getting excited about the first application of AI. It's not going to be the best.
It's just the first application of AI. Now, what you're realizing here is you're realizing that human jobs and even, even my, my job here is can, can and will be replaced by AI pretty soon. Which for me is, I mean, super scary. A lot of people are worried about this word recession. And I think I want to just go through what I think is going to happen here with you guys. So we're going to get Microsoft results and either these results or the next results are going to be bad. And the reason why they're going to be bad is because we are catching the tail end of the interest rate hikes, which we had previously. So you increase interest rates, increased interest rates, increased interest rates, but the data legs, the sales data legs, the earnings lag. And then two or three quarters afterwards, the earnings actually start coming out. And what we'll see is I think we'll see what macro elf says over here. So he says, look, what you can expect is you can expect earnings to continue to go down, but price to actually start separating from earnings and to start going up. So what that means is that the markets are not going to wait for the end of the recession to go up.
The markets are going to react before the recession because the markets saying look, we know the recession is coming because we increased interest rates and they have been on a downtrend, but now they've turned, even though it is assumed that earnings will go down. So if you see earnings coming down, that doesn't mean that the markets are going come down because the markets have already priced in bad earnings from some of the biggest players and this is the kind of chart that typically will follow. So equity is typically truffed six to nine months before reaching their lows in past bear markets so that's their equity earnings truffed six to nine months before reaching the the earning so you know that. Let's look at some other altcoins, because I think that's why you guys came here for the DJIN. Today, I mean, let's go into the weekly, I think that's better because this T network is destroying everything for us. Aptos, I think it was a good short at $14 back at $12.79. Still think it's a good short if you've got balls shorted. We have curve up 20%, Phantom. So just a quick note on Phantom, Andre Krenier is speaking with me tomorrow in Miami. I'm speaking remotely. He has warned. I said, look, there's not going to be any announcements.
There's not going to be any hype. They just go into. I want to find you this. This is expectation management reform. I want to stress. There will be no announcements, no reveals. This isn't reverse competitive, I'm serious, and focus on this anymore. We simply want to discuss Progress, and never since he's done that Phantom has absolutely exploded. Now, I'm not going to show you Phantom because I think there's a lot of other channels that can do that very well. going to say, though, that there has been a huge turnaround since Andres come back, you can see that there's a renewed vigor for Phantom. I think Phantom, the token has actually doubled. They didn't make an announcement that they were going to start burning.
Instead of burning some fees that they were going to go into a fund for ecosystem development. So you know that Ethereum burns a portion of the gas fees, which Phantom also does. Well, that's not going to go into a fund. And that fund is going to be used to fund the Phantom token ecosystem, which I think is amazing. I think I think that's a that's an amazing tokenomics metric, right? So that's, that's Phantom. The other one that I think we need to look at is Kanto. So we did call Kanto on this on the show. I'll show you exactly what we called it. So that you can see I think it was at about one cent. Let's have a look here. Okay, so let me just go here and Kanto.
We told you guys to buy earlier this week, it was a thread about 10 cents, it was about about 10 cents. Now I don't think that you should be buying Kanto and I think it's a great token. I think it's we've but that that trade is now played out. I think the problem is that now when you look at this at Kanto, you see that there's a lot of noise around Kanto. And when there's a lot of noise to me, what it says is the big Twitter accounts, the bees have been buzzing around canto now you don't want to be where the bs are buzzing now you want to be with the bees are going to buy is right that's the that's the rules the the bees are not buzzing around cancer so I would be careful even though I liked the project I would say right not don't get into it why look at the move that it's had since since let's go just 14 days back just as you can see in the last two weeks in the last two weeks the tokens doubled you don't want to be you don't want to be someone else's excess liquidity so watch out for that what chart that said we do think that this is a very very very good project. The other project which is doing well or from a sentiment point of view is the theorem. It's the ETH doing very well. It's in greed territory from a fear and greed index. The reason why this is so good is because or why people are so bullish is because of the Shanghai upgrade which is coming up. They said in March, in fact, there was an article that was released yesterday. Let me show you the article. It was released by the block to say that what the developers have done now is they've got the first shadow fork for Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade.
Now, why is this Shanghai upgrade so important? Because you're going to be able to stake and un-stick ETH, whereas right now, all you can do is stake ETH. If you stake your ETH and you become a validator on the network, then that's it. They're stuck there. You can't un-stick them, but you can when the Shanghai upgrade happens, you're going to be able to stake and un-stick ETH, which means that what we think is going to happen is more people are going to stake their Ethereum to earn the rewards. Right now, only 14% of Ethereum are staked. But I think that what's going to happen here is that more people are going to start staking their Ethereum, which is going to make the network more secure. It's also going to make less ETH in circulation because people are going to start earning rewards. Now, the reward today is low. Today, if you stake Ethereum, you're getting 3.96%, but when the usage on the network starts growing, you can get up to 15%. percent. So that's another big one.
So that's another big one. Let's see if there's any other altcoins that are actually worth talking about today. I love the crypto bubbles. I actually have a call with them at some point. I love them. I think I've got some good ideas for how we can integrate them into the banter fam. Phantom up 22.7%, T network up 137, Curve up 20%. If you like Curve, start looking at Connick at anything under $6. At anything under $6, start looking at Connick. Let's look at some other news. So I think this is funny news. I don't have funny.
Funny is not the right word because funny is haha. But what we can see is that Sam Bankman Freed, they've discovered that he had a property in Washington. Now, why would he buy a property in Washington? Because he wants to go and bribe the politicians, right? So he bought this property in Washington. And now the property is now listed as part of his estate liquidations, which is huge. The other one we told you to buy is a sponsor of our show, which is Gaines Network. They're a sponsor of our show, but they're also an unbelievable token. So we speak about them. We're very critical of them because we don't want to shill our sponsor. But what we can't deny is if you look at the fees that these guys are generating, they're having the most incredible run of fees. And I think tomorrow they start a trading competition on Gaines, which will just keep increasing the fees.
I think if there is a trading competition, I think it starts tomorrow. My suggestion is go and enter it just so you can learn how to use a decentralized perpetuals decks. Okay. Then let's just see if there's any other news. So Andre says no big announcements. A sneak peek of the Solana DAP store is going to be released. So there is a sneak peek of the Solana DAP store, which is huge. The GBTC lawsuit to become an ETF against the SEC is going to be heard on the 7th of March, which is big. So that may take us one step closer to a Bitcoin spot ETF. Cool. What do you think? Should we teach the guys how to make money in crypto using options?
I'm very tempted to teach the guys how to, let us know in the comments. If you want us to quickly show you guys how to make money in crypto using options, cause not many people know how to make money crypto using options, but options are actually a very simple, easy way to make money in crypto and also to hedge your portfolio. I'm going to show you that in a second. But before I do that, I did say that if we get 2000 likes, then we have to give away a watch, right? We said that yesterday, no one signed up, no one retrieved the watch. The rules are very simple. I tell you what the winning account is. If you have the winning account, you have to let us know within five hours and you have to confirm your identity within five hours. And then we send the Rolex watch to anywhere in the world. So if you want to enter the Rolex watch competition, what you do is you go to, you sign up to Bibert Orbit Get with any crypto banter link. It doesn't have to be the one below, but if you don't have one, then just use anyone you want. Just you just sign up with the one below.
And you can then win yourself one of the two Rolex that you can either win this Rolex over here, which is the classic black Submariner, which I think is an amazing, amazing, amazing watch. But we don't have 2000 likes. Everyone's so excited. We don't have 2000 likes. We're not giving a swear without 2000 likes. That's for sure. The other one is the blue and gold Submariner, which is, and, I mean, you kind of want the chance to win both of those. Any trade can't leverage trade and leverage and leverage trade. Any trades, count every trade is one entry into the competition. I don't know. It's the easiest way to win actually, not. It's not actually the easiest way to win.
The easiest way to win is to go to the daily candle and go to the good morning crypto newsletters. Both of those are our are our newsletters and inside the newsletter, so I'll show you the newsletter, show you how it works. This is the newsletter. There are one, two, three, four trades that you can make every single day, but somewhere inside this newsletter, we've hidden, I'll show you today. So if you have, if this is your BitGet account number and you tell us with, and you tell us, you send us an email to giveawayasatcryptobanta.com, you are gonna win $1,000. And that happens every single day. And if you're on Bybit, if that is your account number, then you win yourself $1,000. So just sign up to our newsletters, there is a link below, open them every day, check if it's your thing, check out the trades as well. The trades often come out before the show. Is it 2,000 likes yet? 1.80, while you guys are doing that, I'm gonna show you how you can make money in crypto in a way that most people don't really know. So I'm gonna show you, let's see if I can log in quickly.
All righty, so here we go. Let's see if I can quickly get, everyone's saying, welcome back, welcome back. All righty, so if you want to trade options with us, you need to have an account on, you need to have an account on Deribit. And the options that we're gonna be looking at is we're gonna be looking at, let's have a look here. I think we should look at ETH options. So lets quickly look at ETH options. Hold on one second. Let's see if I can just log in here. Okay, why, when I'm trying to log in, you guys need to, here we go. Okay, let's see if I can log in. Okay. Hold on a second.
You guys need to smash the lack button. And, alrighty. So, I'm in. I'm in. I mean, I mean, I want to show you guys how you can use options. So before we do that, first of all, you need to understand what an option is. So if you want to sign up for a options account, go to terribitt. There are one of our sponsors, so you can sign up over there just click on that user link and then go and open account, at their Bit. And when you open a counter there, but you'll see that you can trade options and futures, but specifically, we're looking at options. Now, what is an option? There are two types of options. There's a call option and there's a put option.
Call option gives the holder the right to buy a certain token at a certain date at a certain price. And in order to get that right, you have to pay. So you pay so if you want to buy Ethereum in one year from now, or you want the option to buy Ethereum one year from now, you're going to have to pay for right. And you have to, you're going to have to do what's called buying a call option. So I'm going to look at options that expire on the 29th of December, 23. Okay. That's almost a year from now. And I'm going to go to options that expire at today's price and say, if I think that Ethereum is going to be above $1,600 on the 23rd of December, 2023, then I can buy an option. Now the price of that option is $430. So I pay $430 today. And if the price goes above 1,600, I get any profit above the 1,600. So I'll give an example.
If I buy an option for the 23rd of December, for the 29th of December, 2023, which is about a year from now, I buy it at 1,600 or the price is at 1,600, I pay $432. If Ethereum is trading at $3,000, then I get the difference between what I paid and what the profit is. So for example, if I go on a strike price of $1,600 and I pay $431 for the trade and ETH is trading at $3,000, then I get any upside above 1,600. So I get $1,400 worth of upside, less the $400 premium, which I paid to buy the option. Now, since I believe that that's the case, I'm going to buy one of these options. So I'm going to go the, I'm going to buy it's buy one of these options order submitted by fantastic. So now I've submitted that order, and at some point it's going to execute. And I'm gonna have a, I'm gonna own an option. I'm gonna own one option for Ethereum, which is the option to buy 1 Ethereum at $1600 in one year's time. And we're going to track that option from now on and we're going to track that option from now on to see how that option increases or decreases in value. And the one we're tracking is the 29th of December, 2023, it's a gold option with a strike price of 1600, and I think our border, and if I haven't bought it, it will execute at some point. Yeah.
I think I bought it. Yeah, I've bought, I've bought, I think I bought why not? We'll check that. If not, the trade will execute. Alrighty, Rolex time. Are there 2000 likes? Yes or no? 1.9. I'm gonna give it one minute like yesterday. I mean, we got to do, we got to say like yesterday. I'm giving it 60 seconds. Let's go.
I want 2200 likes. And I'm going to give it two minutes. 2200 likes is the new threshold. Do I see 2200 likes in the next one minute and 45 seconds. Do I see it? Do I see it Josh? Do I see it? Do I see 2200 today? Do I see it? Come on. What are we on James? What, what?
Let's have a look here. What are we on? What are we on? 2 0 3 3 2 0 60. Hold on, hold on, hold on. 2 0 70. Okay, there we go. 2 0 70. 2 1 2 100 according to you. I'll actually smash the like button myself over here just to help you guys. We've got one more minute. One more minute baby.
One more. 2 1 2 3 2 1 4 4. We have 2 1 5 7 but 55 seconds remain. 2 1 7 5. 2 1 8 6 and 45 seconds remain. Who will win? Will the clock win? 2 1 9 1. And away they go. 2200 likes. We have 2200 likes. You guys are a bunch of legends.
Let us give away our relics. So remember, this all works so that there are no misunderstandings here. We are going to announce a account on Vibit. If you don't have an account, just go open an account. Do one trade. Trade for one dollar. Open an account. Trade and you can win. We will send this Rolex to you anywhere in the world except Russia because can we send it to Russia? People are asking if they used a VPN with a referral link below. Let's just say they did. No one would ever do that.
Would we send the watch to the United States? I mean, if you told us that you were in the United States, we would send the watch. We understand that people do go on vacations to the United States, and we don't believe that anybody in the United States would actually use a VPN to trade crypto, but if they were, we would just send the watch. So here's how it works. We go to the list of things. We go to Google random number generator. Google random number generator. And we just select the number between one and one. And I mean, so this is my heart is pounding at 6,436. My heart is pounding. I can't believe I'm about to give away a Rolex. 6,436.
And we just generate a random number. 6,307. That means that if your account is account number, account number, account number, if your account is account number 506, 8 0 6 5 8, holy smokes. If that is your account, you see this, you see this, you see this watch, this actual Rolex valued at 15, $20,000. It's on the way to you. If you get hold of us in the next five hours, the clock starts. Now you have five hours to send a mail to giveaways, a crypto banter.com, proving that 506 8 0 6 5 8 is your account. And if you can do that, you get a watch. I'll see you guys again tomorrow. Until then, I wish somebody wins that watch. trade war my friends.