The Red Wave Never Came - Transcripts

November 15, 2022

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Host Reed Galen answers questions asked by the members of the Lincoln Project community about the upcoming Georgia runoffs, how to combat junk polling, the fate of the January 6th Committee, and so much more. Plus, what to expect from a Republican...


Hey everyone it's read before we get started just want to let you know that we are on to the U. S. Senate runoff in Georgia to do your part go to join the union dot US that's joined the union dot US and help put a good man back in the United States Senate and make sure unserious candidate does not go there go to join the union dot US and help out in Georgia and now on with the show welcome back to the like a project most retailers today I'm once again coming to you so for a special post mid term post mortem edition of the podcast to answer the questions that come from you the listeners and members of the Lincoln project community rex to Joe and I and everyone at the Lincoln project love hearing from you all and as always if you have a question please do not hesitate to ask podcast at Lincoln project dot U. S. leave your question for us before we get started I just want to say thank you to everybody for all you did this election cycle for your support of our efforts and for getting out there and voting knocking on doors and making your voices and your work felt so with that let's get into some of your questions let's talk a little bit about the mid terms the continuing mid terms and some polling Kathleen's icer asks how does the link IT project plan to get involved in the Georgia run off and how can listeners and L. P. supporters get involved well Kathleen first and foremost go to join the union dot US our union team is already shifting their resources and their time they're focused out of places like Nevada and Arizona and over to Georgia and so you know you'll be able to find all the information you need there you go to power at the polls if you live in Georgia and you're interested in serving as a poll worker or vet the vote if you're a veteran who's interested in getting involved in the mechanics of the election I know they need a lot of help if you are on the ground again you can knock on doors make phone calls and texts whatever it might be look as I feel good about senator Warnock's chances against Herschel Walker I think that there was probably a fair amount of Republican voters that went to Walker because they were voting for governor Bryant champ in his reelection campaign against Stacey Abrams will be interesting to see what Kim does here my guess is he'll want to stay out of this race because he probably doesn't think much of Walker candidly he and trump they'll get along anyway so you know he's happy to stay out of it I think it's sort of pernicious his credentials as a quote unquote normal Republican which you know look after those bills he signed a twenty twenty one of these of the voting he's always gonna have a big asterisk next to his name I think also without other things on the ballot with this is gonna be the only thing there's going to be more money and more people and more everything else I think that you know for democratic voters it's important to pick up another seat in the United States Senate for the democratic majority that's probably not a message that really appeals to independents and Republicans I would say that asking those kinds of voters will be color band online as you've heard before about the character of these two men if you had to choose between these two to frankly do anything would you choose senator Raphael Warnock or would you choose Herschel Walker would you choose someone who was a highly regarded and respected pastor at the same church where MLK preached it is now United States center has acquitted himself beyond well in that role or do you want someone who is amoral who is unserious and unprepared for the role of United States senator I think that's what Walker it's he is not a serious candidate he is the trump effect in effect he cleared the field from Walker right McConnell had no chance to put in someone normal someone normal in this race probably beats Warnock but with the head winds and strong top of the Republican ticket Warnock still came within just about half a percent of getting through the run off and I think if we look back we should assume that establishment Republicans will probably lay off Walker they probably want nothing to do with it my guess is McConnell will want that vote but he probably doesn't want Walker but that's a catch twenty two for him and I'm sure no one really feels bad for so let me just say this you would be able to walk across Georgia from one side to the other on all of the dollar bills that will be spent on television advertising between now and December sixth but I think it's going to be on the ground voter turnout coalition building and reminding people that there's a runoff because a lot of times there's a drop off in participation it's a month after its right after thanksgiving it's before Christmas people are trying to tune into something else and so I think that the turnout operation that I believe the pro democracy coalition can bring to bear I think will help senator were not get over the line okay okay bone Hagadorn and OQO I hope I pronounce your name correctly set in Wisconsin why did Mandela Barnes lose to Ron Johnson for Senate but Tony Evers was able to be re elected governor well I think there's a couple of things that go into it one is that Wisconsin is a very purple state it has its share of very conservative areas it's for sure very progressive bears but a lot of people who are you know somewhere in that middle band of sixty five or seventy percent of voters maybe they consider themselves Republicans or Democrats Barnes is a progressive he's a self avowed progressive right she had the likes of Bernie Sanders company campaign for and I think also we shouldn't underestimate the kind of campaign that Ron Johnson ran against which we knew we was going to do which was coded language dog whistles from start to finish Barnes is an African American yes it was a lot of crime and you know them and they and all sorts of other language that is you know part and parcel of the Republican Party really for the last fifty or sixty years but I think also you know Barnes had an opportunity and I would even say by necessity he had to give moderate Democrats independents and sub soft Republicans Arreaza devote form and I think a lot of them what in the polling place without thinking that he'd given them one and I think you know a lot of times you gotta ask for people's votes if you don't ask for their votes are not off to gonna come your way and so I think there was a variety of things on the evils front you know look we did a lot of work in Wisconsin Tim Michael's his opponent was sort of choirs I Trumpy he really got himself in trouble Michael's dad when he got caught on video saying if I'm governor you know no Democrat will ever win an election again in this state and I think that just turned a lot of voters off did every Republican come across the line Iverson no but I bet a lot of them skip that race and a lot of them you know enough came across the line for Iverson who is again you know former superintendent of public education and


a good campaign good enough campaign to get across the line all right

hello yeah asks

now that we know the mainstream media covers junk polling you know polls that are put out by Republicans they don't cost a lot what a push questions where there's only one answer which forms a false narrative how can we contain the media and help them reflect the reality of what's happening in real time what should now let me say this is that polling has been broken for a while we're a long way from the days when everybody had a land line and everybody at home picked up that land line and so I think that you know the people who are answering the survey calls are self selecting you know anybody who's willing to spend thirty five or forty minutes on the phone with a pollster is somebody who has decided that said they would spend their time if they ask you on a cellphone or if they call your cell phone how many people actually pick up cell phone numbers that they don't know it so again I think that the respondent pool is shrinking it's probably older it's probably disproportionately whiter I think also there is it leased to the media based polls there's so many people who are scared to death to get it wrong again after twenty sixteen that I think sometimes that they're over sampling what I mean is there asking more Republicans the questions that they are Democrats which is skewing things but the part that you ask about these junk polls that the media is heating up you know the idea of a quote unquote push pull right where you ask the question is the sky blue or do you think it's blue right there's only one answer to the question this is nothing new in politics the difference is is that most of the time the media recognize them for what they were but I think this is the first time in my experience where the entire Republican political set the entire Republican sort of political media ecosystem all got together and colluded to basically push these crappy pulls out out out out out in the mainstream media took a hook line and sinker like I'm sure they thought they would and so by you know early October you've got you know this red wave starting and it's all the idea to sort of depressed democratic turnout convinced them they can't win but also set up the other side which is if Republicans do losing some close races we could say the whole thing was right because look back at the polls and so general I think that a lot of posters and I know a lot they're very smart people they do math way better than I do they typically understand their craft very well but it's clearly not working the way that we've expected it to going back to however many years you've been doing this horse race stuff and so I think it's bad sampling over sampling of Republicans misunderstanding the nature of the electorate and the issues that they care about and how those issues relate to who they might vote for you could say I'm most worried about inflation is an issue and vote for a Democrat because the Republican is unacceptable and I think that was something really hard for people understand but also only use this expression the weaponizing of basically made up surveys fake polls to try to drive the media narrative which the media should know better by now but too often they don't and this is something that we and everybody else that cares about this stuff is just gonna have to push back on them and say just because a Republican pollster said you something doesn't mean you have to run with it maybe you should read it as for the survey questionnaire as for the cross tabs and say is this something you guys really think is worth it my guess is a lot of times it's not all right let's move on to election laws Julie Moore asks for the Lincoln project how important our election process issues like ranked choice voting an independent redistricting commissions in the overall fight for American democracy to me these sorts of issues seem like the naturist bonds to restore the majority's voice in these outrageously gerrymandered districts so Julie I worked in the independent reform political space for about three years before I joined like a project and I will say this is that I helped pass prop eleven in California which was the independent redistricting commission out there I helped pass prop for here and Utah where I live which was an independent redistricting commission which the legislature just basically throughout so we're gonna do we want to do I think a lot of these things are all good in principle and I think that on the whole I would rather have people who are not supposed to be connected to the process choosing how lines are drawn into taking that stuff away from the hands of candidates we've seen Republicans have been masterful in their ability to draw their own lines and I think we're seeing that in a lot of these really radicalized legislative chambers and very conservative states or even in the U. S. house with the Republican conference ranked choice voting open primaries look I think that stuff is is all great some people hate it because it's hard to understand and I get that but I think the idea is with that ranked choice voting really good chance to get Serra Pailin back in Congress up in Alaska so I think that you know it a lot of times these are top four primaries which means that everybody in a primary election Republicans Democrats whoever it is they all run together and the final four I think something going through now maybe in Nevada the final five top vote getters in a primary go on to the general election and then you rank them one two three four five and then there's a process that makes my eyes glaze over but the bottom line is it's trying to get to a consensus of one candidate that has gotten over fifty percent support from a number of the voters that we can say okay this was the person we chose in practice it is supposed to give you the most broad based candidate at the end because theoretically the extremes will get let's say if it's a top for the extreme Democrat will get a one from a democratic and a four from Republican and vice versa the extreme Republican will get a one first place vote from a Republican and a fourth placement from the Democrats even as I'm trying to explain it here it gets confusing but the bottom line is it's supposed to drive candidates back towards the middle because they're not only trying to get those first place votes right those top vote getters but try to get everybody second our third place vote as they go down the list because if you get below a certain threshold your name gets thrown out and then ultimately maybe get somebody who is a little bit unexpected but is more of a consensus choice Eric Adams the mayor of New York City was elected through the ranked choice voting process there might be a lot of people listening to this for home that drives you absolutely crazy I get it but you know he is a you know even for a Democrat probably a lot more moderate for a lot of new Yorkers than the other options they had and so I think all of the reforms stuff is good but I think it's mostly good because it's at least an attempt a good faith attempt to put power back in the hands of voters and take it away from the hands of politicians who have often either drawing their own lines or made the rules to protect themselves their party and both parties at the state level our mutual protection society's right like they don't want new entrants and so anything that breaks that down I think it's healthy for democracy all right let's talk a little bit about January six Mickey copper man asks it seems like the GOP is going to take back the house even though it's not the margins many Democrats were faring what is going to come of the January six hearings I'm worried that the committee is going to be immediately dissolved and everything will have been for nothing will make you it looks as if we're recording this that the Republicans will take a very narrow perhaps three or four seat majority in the U. S. house as I recall the January sixth committee's mandate only lasted through the end of this Congress so they would have had to re up but anyway but I will say this is that they will assuredly put out a comprehensive report before the end of the year it would not surprise me if whatever it is they've collected they're already preparing to hand over to the justice department and don't underestimate its effect and I think we could see this based on what we saw happen last week which was I think there were a lot of voters a lot of Americans who saw the January six hearings and were appalled by what they saw in what they learn because I think there are a lot of people who didn't really understand what trump and his goons at all the people around him were up to I think they thought that he just got everybody spun up on Twitter the easy people all came to Washington DC and they all just sort of spontaneously March to the capitol and I think that what you saw was a really good illustration an exposition by the January six committee and chairman Thompson and vice chair Cheney about how all of these different groups and different interests all conspired together and they did conspire to keep Donald Trump in office so I think that at the end of the day even with a Republican majority coming I think the January sixth committee more than did its job I think it probably scared off a lot of Republicans like I used to be and said if giving these guys another vote or giving these people more representation or more power is more likely to get us more behavior like trump like I'm out but we should understand that the fight is just beginning as we move forward here gang in the coming days weeks and months the Republican Party in this country will get more extreme they will get hotter it will become more radioactive don't listen to what you see on cable news or what you hear from radio outlets or the mainstream media or anybody coming out of Washington DC right they all want the Republican Party to go back to normal it ain't gonna happen not anytime soon and not as we sit on the precipice as I'm recording this of Donald Trump announcing yet another run for president of the United States and so guys it was a big win on Tuesday a big win but a big win in a battle part of a larger struggle and so we cannot and must not ever forget that I am your friendly neighborhood Cassandra if you want to feel good about things I'm all for it if you want to worry about things give me a call I'll tell you why we still got work to do all right looking ahead at what examine on Twitter asks we keep talking about the pressure the mega Republicans will put on a Republican speaker S. actually with a slim margin but what is the chance that moderate Republicans will put pressure in the direction of sanity the chance of that is zero there's not enough of them they have not shown any backbone to date and I do not expect that they will now because they will


immediately going to figure out how to save themselves in two years and do everything they can to let the you know the rates that are the magna leadership and that's what they are in the U. S. house passed them by as they fly over their doors every night and so I don't think we should expect anything out of my Republicans and I'm not sure how many of them there will be left anyway hi Kim Callahan asks what do the next two years look like if the GOP wins the house leading up to the general election in twenty twenty four so again it looks like guys as of right now it's going to be a slim majority this is what the Republicans will do Kevin McCarthy is running for speaker guys we've been saying this since March I don't think he's got the votes I don't think he's going to get the votes I think that with you know a three or four seat majority a lot of people will blame him for the poor performance that frankly Republicans showed when they thought they'd win thirty forty fifty sixty seats he's not a true believer they all know he's not a true believer he's not like in a least a phonic who brings the fervor of a convert to the mission and so I think that if McCarthy becomes speaker he will be led around by the nose but it wouldn't surprise me if we hear before long that the leadership fight in gonna go his way and he retires we'll never move back to Bakersfield I don't think but my guess is he would leave Congress rather than be a two time loser in a speaker's fight but here's what we can expect and they've told us guys and so these are the things you'll now see hunter Biden investigations between now and twenty twenty four do everything they can to inject as much chaos in trouble not only into Joe by this administration but also into the country writ large they will do things like shut down the government rather than agree to a debt ceiling increase why because they don't care guys the governance is not in their DNA they don't care about any of this stuff these are not the things they care about I mean listen I got no particular love for lobbyists but if you work in a lobbying shop in Washington DC right now like how do you go to Paul Gosar's office and ask for something right like how do you go to Marjorie Taylor green's office and ask for something like these people might be committee chairs they will have enormous sway on Capitol Hill in the normals such as they are the political bureaucracy of Washington DC thanks thanks the it'll just be you know we'll give our five thousand dollar pack check and everything will be fine like that's it's not going to be fine these are bad people they're nihilists in in the mold of Steve Bannon a lot of them are Leninists they want to burn the whole damn thing to the ground so that everything is so topsy turvy that Donald Trump can exceed to power once again in November of twenty twenty four January of twenty twenty five and you know create the world in their work vision and I say no thank you and so we will do all we can to push back on these people because they do not have your interests at heart they don't have their own constituents at heart right they follow up a big golden cal who lives down in Palm Beach and you know they will do what he asks them to because they are his people and we should not forget that all right last question here getting all over Jackson asks what is the biggest thing you learned during the twenty twenty two mid terms that you will apply to twenty twenty four now all over that is a great question let me back up a step you know a lot of times especially if you've been doing anything for very long right choose your industry I'm in politics some people make cars other people are in tech some people run coffee shops whatever is like I'll I know how to do this I know how to do this I know how to do this I've seen it all you know it it especially in campaigns we can all become very easily swayed by the idea of like we know how it's gonna go let me say this twenty sixteen was a very different race from twenty twenty and twenty twenty four will be a very different race from twenty twenty yet will Donald Trump be there most likely will Joe Biden be there most likely okay so those are the two major variables that are now constitutes everything else though we don't know no one could have predicted in March of twenty twenty that a global pandemic was going to sweep across the world and so all of these things now happen and they happen with such regularity and repeatedly that the one thing it reminds me of Oliver is the need for preparation we don't know what's going to happen but we need to be prepared for it because of course preparation and opportunity equal lock and you know we have been I think prepared opportunistic and lucky here at the Lincoln project because we know our opponents we prepare for what they might do and we drill on this stuff we practice on this stuff and so when the thing that's unexpected comes up that's good or bad we're able to assess that and respond to it appropriately and often very quickly a lot of the political world you know we'll get back to running for president and you know mid twenty twenty three or whatever and now we'll get going but that's not how it's going to be this time guys right that twenty two cycle isn't over twenty twenty four is upon us and so the other part to Oliver is you know we talked about this right after the twenty twenty campaign and we I've seen the fruits of it here in the wake of twenty twenty two which is the need to consistently build on the pro democracy coalition right it was an ad hoc coalition in twenty twenty that elected Joe Biden we brought the union together sixty two thousand volunteers to seventy plus organizations from across the country and across the political spectrum to ensure that everything that needed to be done on the ground for pro democracy candidates could get done we're going to grow that and expand that I have never felt more strongly about something the beauty of having a guy like Rick Wilson at my side every day is that you never have to worry that the creative and the content is going to be anything less than the best in the world nobody else gets to say that right everybody else is like a yeah the atis or half past maybe people like it we're lucky enough not to do that right Rick and his team make amazing content that really spreads the message it gives our people the millions of you out there the ability to talk to your friends your neighbors your colleagues your families about really what's going on in this country and what's so important about making sure that we stay on the side of democracy and so for me it's just the idea that coalition building is so important it's difficult the coalition that was successful this year will Adam eyes a little bit will have to bring it back together and we'll have to grow it will have to add on to it but I've never been more sure of something in my life which is here's the coalition that's been successful Democrats independents and Republicans like I used to be saying this is the country we want not what Donald Trump in the maggot people are offering we need to hold it together we need to offer those people something we also need to start providing a vision of what a post trump post magna world looks like and I think that that's worth a lot of discussion and what worth a lot of thought but I think that you know we're not through this struggle yet by any stretch but just like we saw with the other great struggles of our errors right of our times you have to keep about half an eyeball out to the future and say okay once we get through this what we want the world to look like and let me just say this gang of said it before the world will look different than it looked from the before times whether that's before trump whether or not that's before covert right the world is fundamentally changing the paradigms by which so many of us grew up came of age everything else are breaking down and the people that will succeed are the people that understand that and the leaders will be the people who recognize that and are willing and able to provide and offer a vision of what the United States can and should be

as we go and improve this great experience

well everybody look I just want to say thanks as always again for your questions they're always entertaining and enlightening to me to see what you are thinking about again you can always reach out to us podcast at Lincoln project dot U. S. as always gang you can find me on Twitter and check talk at retail and on Instagram at reed underscore Galen underscore helping to tell next time thanks so much thanks for a great election cycle a season

thanks again everyone for list sure to follow and subscribe to the Lincoln project on apple podcasts Spotify Google or however you list don't forget to leave a five star review to connect with us follow us on Twitter at project and for more information on our movement to join our mailing list subscribe to our newsletter or make a contribution to our efforts visit Lincoln project dot US

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