January 21, 2023

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Bitcoin is pumping and has crossed $23,000, is this a bull trap or retracement to $40-$50K? Sam Bankman-Fried FTX $700 million hidden. 🌟Sponsor - Signup with Uphold. https://uphold.sjv.io/gbED4X 🚀 Get the Ledger Nano X to Safely store your Crypto -...


Welcome back to the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. If you are new here, please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Apple, Spotify, and Google, please leave a five-star rating and review. This content is brought to you by Uphold, which makes crypto investing easy. You can buy, sell, trade, and earn cryptocurrencies in Uphold. They have 10 plus million users, 250 plus cryptocurrencies, and they're available in 150 countries. I've been using Uphold since 2017. If you'd like to learn more about Uphold, please visit the link in the description. All right, my friends, Bitcoin is pumping. It is currently over $23,000. I did not see this coming, especially over the weekend. You usually don't have as much volume, but it is moving and moving strong, guys.

As I've been stating, I'm of two mindsets that two scenarios can play out here. One, this is a epic bear market rally bull trap that could roll over and then send us back to the lows, or this is the start of Bitcoin's retracement back to, let's say, 40,000, 50,000. Some are saying 30,000 to 40,000. It's hard to tell, because we're in a very different macro environment. There's been a lot of collapses in the crypto market, and some that are still looming, like Genesis, Gemini, and so forth. We saw Genesis did follow for bankruptcy, so maybe that's the scenario that's playing out there versus a complete collapse, but still, we have to wait and see what's happening. I'm cautiously optimistic. When we look at it from the macro chart, guys, it does mirror what we saw in 2019, where after the market bottomed out at the end of 2018, we started to see a rally in 2019, and Bitcoin went back up to about 16, 17K, certainly not to new all-time highs. That is what I'm thinking is playing out here. However, once again, I want to be cautiously optimistic, because people sometimes just want to hear what they want to hear. I'm looking at two scenarios, and I'm prepared for both. Bitcoin rolls over and goes to lows.

I'll be buying the dip. If Bitcoin goes to that retracement, let's say it goes to 40,000, I'll be taking some profits. I'm prepared for both scenarios, but sometimes people are not. They don't think about, hey, multiple things could happen here, or not the scenario you're thinking about could play out. Let's see what happens, but Bitcoin is making a big move. Of course, there's a lot of back and forth between the bears and bulls on Twitter and everybody trying to figure out where we are in the market psychology. Many of you have seen the Wall Street cheat sheet psychology of a market cycle, and some are saying, hey, we are in the disbelief here where people think it's a sucker's rally and that it's going to go back down, but it could simply be a little rally coming out from the anger phase. I don't know yet. I need to see more. Maybe if Bitcoin goes to 30K, then I'm going to say, yeah, bears are wrong. We are definitely doing this retracement here, and the bears are in the disbelief stage. If it rolls over, I'll say bears were right, but like I said, I'm prepared for both scenarios.

I'm not affected in any one way or the other because I have my bets placed accordingly. Here are some bear, excuse me, bullish signals though, that you can't deny. They're facts. Bitcoin broke through the 400-day downtrend. Once again, a fact. You look at the chart here, straight up, did break through it. That is a bullish signal. Here's another one. This one speaks to the two-week LMAKD bullish cross. Here, you see that cross happening similar to what happened in 2018, 2019, which I just referenced. The last time Bitcoin crossed, it moved 242% to the upside. This analyst here is saying, I'm not saying we will move to 242% to the upside, but this just gives you a flavor of the significance of this cross.

So another bullish signal. You can't ignore it. It's a fact. It's happening on the charts, right? But once again, we want to be cautiously optimistic. So let's take all the data in and look at it and figure out what's the probability here. So another analyst here, the following chart, the short-term hodler or holder realized price. Stay above the STH realized price equals stay bullish on Bitcoin. So if you look at the chart here, when Bitcoin is above this line, it's bullish, right? When it's below, obviously bearish. Right now, it's above it. So let's see if that holds.

And if it continues, once again, you could simply roll over very quickly and not be good. But this is why we let it play out. We let it prove itself. But man, these are bullish signals that are flashing here, right? So we can't ignore them. But here's another chart highlighting the Bitcoin halving cycles, showing the hype phase, the disillusionment, and the enlightenment. So right now, we seem to be coming out or exiting the disillusionment phase, and it mirrors, once again, 2018 into 2019 and even the 2013 into 2015 phase. So we're seeing very similar patterns here. And don't get me wrong, Bitcoin could tomorrow or Monday simply pull back and hit 20K or 21K, then continue moving up, right? It kind of did that, where it had a big run up and then it kind of moved sideways in the 20,000s era, then we have another move up, right? And we're looking at the four hour chart here. So once again, I think if Bitcoin continues this move up, guys, and continues to build support, that's a good sign.

And my hope, my personal bias, I often say leave feelings out of this, but my hope is that this is the retracement. Bitcoin is going to 40K, 50K. I'll be taking some profits there. I'm sure the alts will follow. We see the alts already following Bitcoin. Ethereum right now is at $1,658, XRP just over 41 cents, BNB just over $304, Cardano over 37 cents. So things are moving with Bitcoin here. So looking good. But guys, I know I sound like a broken record. I'm still cautiously optimistic. I'm not like trying to go buy a ton of coins right now to catch this pump. I never buy into pumps.

I've been buying the lows when everybody was scared, when it's been fear. So I'm prepared for both scenarios. If it rolls over, dollar cost average and continue to accumulate. If it keeps pumping upwards, take profits. So that's what I'm looking at, my friends. Now, I want to end it with the following news. Remember, Sam Bankman Freed said he only had $100,000 in the bank? Well, Sam Bankman Fraud continues to lie to everybody because we got breaking news here from CNBC. The Feds sees almost $700 million of FTX assets in Sam Bankman Freed criminal case. Federal prosecutor sees near $700 million in cash and assets connected to Sam Bankman Freed. Court filings from Friday show primarily in the form of Robinhood shares. Three accounts were at Silvergate Bank and the US dollars in the name of FTX digital markets, a Bahamian subsidiary.

So once again, lies being told by Sam Bankman Fraud. And this guy needs to go to jail. They need to get this going. He continues to do all types of shady stuff. He was sharing spreadsheets on Twitter saying FTXUS is not insolvent. Yeah, I don't believe a word of it. And it wasn't from a third party auditor. It was from some random Google sheets that he put together. We're actually going to believe that. He should be in jail, but he's at his parents place tweeting and writing newsletters on Substack now. Can you believe that, guys? If you and I did this, we would be hauled off to jail.

We would not be walking around. It's unbelievable. But hopefully justice will be served here. And he has to go to jail for the crimes he committed. All right, guys, let me know what you think about the price of Bitcoin and where you think we may be going. It would be crazy if Bitcoin went to like $24,000 today or tomorrow. But I think it's due for a pullback. And not to say it's rolling over to lower lows, but to build support levels. It's got to build support levels to keep maintaining this. So once again, the bullish signals are flagging, but we want to be cautiously optimistic. Let me know what you think, and I'll talk to you