December 01, 2022

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The Fed was dovish in statements of rate hike reduction as Elon Musk calls them out on recession.Stocks and Crypto pumped on dovish Fed talk. Sam Bankman-Fried talks FTX in NYTimes interview. BENZINGA CRYPTO EVENT...


welcome back to the thinking crypto podcast your home for crypto currency news and interviews if you're new here please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below if you're listening on a podcast platforms such as apple's Spotify or Google please leave a five star rating heads up guys I will be at the future of crypto conference next week which is hosted by benzinga it will be in New York City at pier sixty on December seventh that's Wednesday December seventh if you were attending please let me know leave a comment or shoot me an email I would love to meet up with you all I will be there I will be interviewing some of the speakers in a booth doing some podcast episodes bear so you know from my tri state area friends you know if you're attending please let me know and if you'd like to attend there is a discount code that I have for you it's thinking crypto twenty so thinking crypto no space in the code and and the number twenty at the end I'll put a link in the description you can go directly where the code is applied and once again it's a twenty percent discount if you like to attend and I'll be there would love to meet some of you put some faces to the names and we can talk about crypto and much more great let's jump into the news guys today we heard from the fed Jerome Powell coming out and saying the fed is going to be less aggressive in raising rates and the markets the Saudis as a dovish positive sign so the S. and P. ended a three day losing streak the Dow jumped seven hundred points and crypto so a bounce back win right now it's over seventeen hundred one hundred seventy thousand one hundred dollars so what's happening here well we're not out of the woods yet the fed will continue to raise rates were gonna policy a fifty basis point rate hike maybe in December so this isn't the you know it's not

the fed is stopping by raising rates tomorrow or next week that's not what's happening here however it shows were over the hill that the fed is you know easing off the gas pedal here in their aggressiveness in raising rates because they were gum coming fast and furious right trying to fight inflation but they have to be careful and Powell did say you know they have to monitor days and and moderate accordingly because there are some lagging metrics and signals because once they raise rates they kind of have to wait and see okay what was the impact of that room in a rate hike because the numbers and I will lose it reports have to commit so the good news guys they're slowing down once again we're not out of the woods big coin could still crash down to ten to twelve K. because there are blacks one catalyst and events potentially that could happen like the genesis trading collapse and so forth right and any company that's connected to the F. T. X. situation could collapse so we're not out of the woods yet but this is a very good sign that the fed is on the path to slowing down right they're going to reduce the rate hikes not be as aggressive and I personally think around Q. our around the end of Q. one of next year they will stop rate hikes and it will be in a holding pattern then they will start cutting rates and then Q. E. will start again and that's what the markets are seeing that's why you see this rally but don't be fooled by this rally once again we're not out of the woods yet we can still go down all you have to have a macro outlook there's people who gonna say all this is bullish rallies coming New World Cup no no no no no my friends be careful not out of the woods yet and I know I've been sharing this charge here are not treating you for five months you know I'm looking for a twenty nineteen type rally

sometime next year it could happen in at the end of Q. one or Q. two but we'll see what happens and and at which point I'll be taking profits and if you all remember those of you were here twenty eighteen was very much like twenty twenty two brutal big one went all the way down below four thousand dollars it was covering the three thousand dollar range then it went sideways and stagnant for a while it was you know certainly painful but then a rally came in twenty nineteen and you know you could certainly swing trade that into profits that is what I'm looking for that's what I think is going to happen and we're seeing the fed narrative is aligning with that the fed off course as Britain raising rates that really killed who jobs and and kill liquidity and kill valuations in their effort to fight inflation so that's what's happening and and we're seeing a lot of layouts in fact today crack in the announced that they're laying off eleven hundred people thirty percent crack in the exchange but also door dash right so this is not just a crypto thing it's across the board we're seeing a lot of tech companies and and folks who are cutting back and laying off people and even if you on must today he regarding to the than a fad he answered a question when someone who assist me not a question but someone at Tesla tweeted I am expecting a real economic recession in twenty twenty three be prepared for macro storm for any macro stormed ahead of us and you want that trend is concerning fed needs to cut interest rates immediately they are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession so the fed can't keep raising rates are they going to put us into a depression right you will get really bad so I understand you're trying to fight inflation but

they gotta slow down it's not looking good and I think they will because guys there's only so much pain people can take retail will be out on the streets rioting and of course the big institutional players the government players who own a lot of assets they're not going to be happy they're going to complain and your C. E. line right the world's richest man right now is get saying fed needs to cooperate so that pressure's gonna mounts on the fed and I'm saying all this because we know the path forward is for them to stop rate hikes cut rate cut cut rates and then start Q. E. which will drive asset prices higher but I think the moment they stop the markets are going to go crazy not to all time highs but they will rally and I think that is the rally I'm looking for in twenty twenty three I may be wrong you know none of this is guaranteed I'm looking at the historical performance I'm looking at the facts and how things are playing out and I'm forming a thesis but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed right and and as an investor you want to look at all scenarios on like I said B. Quinn could still crash down to ten K. because there are a catalyst I'll be here things that are on the edge because of this F. T. X. situation so we'll have to wait and see

so let's move ahead guys I wanted to

what you'll know about Sam bank made freed he was interviewed by Andrew Sorkin of CNBC today was very insightful but it kind of started off on a very weird note angel asked the crowd to give us Sam and applause and I was kind of cringe I think a lot of people are like dude really look this is not the time to be giving Sam bacon freed and out laws this is a time for him to answer questions not to be fairly and he did ask some tough questions but overall I still think you know if it was still a bit of you know coddling of of Sam backer freak but let me give me some to take aways what were set and one of it was that he's at F. T. X. U. S. is fully solvent and withdrawals could be open today now

I do I don't trust that I wanna verified they need to show the actual numbers and the actual books right I don't believe that for one second because Sam has been caught lying this man is deleted tweets he set things in interviews so there's a lot of contradictory things that have come out from his his end right Wetherby on Twitter with me via emails or or interviews whatever it may be now Mariana fault you know he kind of highlighted some of the takeaways here some of the quotes and Sam back refer you hear something I made a lot of mistakes never try to commit fraud okay US platforms is fully you funded I believe withdrawals could be open today here F. T. X. could have margin call positions but it could be a didn't do sell in massive failure of oversight now

I I don't know what to see here because his first statement was never tried to commit fraud but you did you did

the facts right he said I was not running L. Mehta I didn't know the size of their position and after six really really your girlfriend was running out media that's a company you founded and you'd and the money was being ported over from F. T. X. Alameda you did know what was happening I don't believe that for a second guys I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt here and I don't some people some you may not agree with me or somebody majority many of you may agree with me but I am believing that for one second I want to see once again trust I I don't don't trust and verify don't trust verify right

Isshin size of al made it to at F. T. X. became larger over the course of twenty twenty two okay after extending had bank accounts globally in twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen and relied on al Bayda to receive quite money and F. T. X. credited that accredited clients so sounds like you start off from a bad place right in that type of set up but it does have some of the takeaways guys I want to go through everything and so I'm sure some of you live streamed it and you're going to watch it post post you know once it's published online so you know it is what it is I don't trust it at night we I think we need to verify I need to see actual books and reports and audits and all that because this is all Sam just saying stuff and and and right now he doesn't have any credibility

now something else

that Sam said which was interesting and and Charles Gasparino Eleanor to read a fox business weighed in on that hi Charles said interesting to note that Sam Baker freed owned the majority of al made up but as I recall in the interview he suggested he was just a part owner not the defacto sole owner and Eleanor Torres said yeah he had no idea in quotes now what was going on there as he stated at least five times throughout the interview does essentially assigning all the blame to Caroline Ellison who he was allegedly dating at the time so he's gonna make Caroline the fall person here or is it kind of like Hey you know what it wasn't N. F. T. X. issue it was an alma mater issue you know this is his way of trying to solve a salvaged the brain and try to say you know I was running after the accident you know there was nothing never really bad there but Almeida let me tell you what's happening over there was because I didn't know what was happening but they're doing bad stuff it's hi bro you own both companies but what

and here's another thing because Sam I think I can expose Gary against here so Eleanor says to read said in his interview with Andrew Sorkin Sam Becker for you just described his meetings with Gary again Sir as the result of elbow grease that took him thousands of hours in Washington to achieve she said would seem to contradict determines come in and talk my mantra absolutely so Gary's mincing come in come in come in talk to us blah blah but we know that it's like a Trojan horse type situation where you go when you tell them Hey this is our situation is a token as a company and whatever Gary can take some information instead of trying to help you he's looking at how he can shut you down or take issue are you a big fine like you do block five and and all he did was issue a fine to block by he didn't help them to do anything else outside of that reporting up setting up proper things just give me a hundred million dollars a shake down right and here's something else guys this is some Yahoo today

I'm we're seeing puff pieces started come out for Gary cancer I'm sure Gary's paying some PR folks to help him out here so here here's here's what they said sandbag me freak fooled a lot of people would not SEC chairman Gary cancer whose warnings about risk and lack of regulation were well rounded

here's the actual title of the article S. T. exes collapse invalidates Gary again service crypto skepticism so the positioning here is C. Gary told you guys C. Gary didn't wanna do anything here because these guys are all scammers yes Gary cancer met with Sam bank man freed and the ethics officials multiple times and was in the process of working on a free pass for them and it as Sam said in the interview he had to grease some elbows it's a pay to play game guys and of course all his campaign donations got him access to Gary so once again as Eleanor said it contradicts Gary's open door statements that all you can just come in and talk to us no no no and what we've seen is that Gary or we should say we haven't seen Gary's calendar has not been updated I believe since like August or June or something like that what's he got to hide something smells fishy here right my bullshit meter is going up my bullshit alarm is going off here right something is up here so hi Gary looks like he's starting his PR

can pain to make sure he he doesn't have to get he doesn't get in trouble or to to reduce the accountability he has in this situation

now funny enough Larry Fink was also at this New York times

deal book conference and a he's a CO blackrock he he also was causing blackrock invested in F. TX so Larry Fink blackrock's CEO says blackrock lost twenty four billion dollars in F. TX he shrugs it off when asked he tries to rope sequoia in with him and says that they too did due diligence on after Jackson could have been misled so

you see it you know Larry Serrano you know make himself look okay and blackrock look okay and so he doesn't look like an idiot which I get right it's it's like that that's a normal human thing to try to preserve your reputation and and protect yourself but his body language was really bad he he he looked like he was just like who cares twenty four million dollars but did you see what happens to Korea yeah the same thing happen to you dude so he was really trying to deflect

but look at it at the end of the day I I think what's if this was like a human failure here across multiple levels and different aspects because one the bull markets are going and capital and money is flowing people people take things for granted they don't do the extra step research right and so it Black Rock Tom Brady Kevin o'leary everybody fell for this instead of doing your due diligence and and you guys know how euphoric you can be in the bond markets and and everybody's trying to get this deal and this investment so I'm not gonna give Larry a lot of crap because I know they're also invested in queen bey's the launcher pick one spot trust they're doing big things but look clearly blackrock somebody added blackrock did not do right I do think blackrock is as the world's largest wealth manager would do that so it is what it is

now guys this is a big week for crypto and and and Washington DC because tomorrow there's going to be a hearing or first of many congressional hearings focus on F. T. acts and the CFTC chairman Ross then Bennett Benham eyes test if he will be testifying in front of the Senate agriculture committee Democrats and Republicans are calling for the passage of crypto legislation now but time is short so watch out for that tomorrow that's gonna be a good one to keep an eye on it let's see what he has to say we'll see if the there's some level of urgency here to get crypto regulations done even if they have that sentiment it's just the holidays are coming up you know it is going to be lame duck session whatever you wanna call it so maybe something happens in Q. one of twenty twenty three we'll we'll see what we need this regulation we need Gary gets in the SEC put in your place we need to know what's the security not a security we need to have the guardrails in place and right now it's a mess there's a lot of bills from different people in Congress we got the buy in executive orders and the reports I came back but there's no action where where the hell's the regulation right so let's see I may maybe this F. T. X. situation is the catalyst for these folks to get it done because there is bipartisan

representation here for for this now something that's really really interesting guys telegram yes the telegram that was sued by the SEC and you know is the platform that runs on blockchain and all that jazz they're going to build a non custodial wallets and decentralized exchange big big move here by telegram I'm actually very intrigued by this and we'll see where things go guys it's it's very interesting but this is a big player you know building this and look with that with how things played out here with F. T. acts a lot of people are going to non custodial wallets rate and hardware wallets and all that because not your keys not your crypto and and I'm in agreement you know we will see you if if telegram bill is a good product because that's important rights not just that it could be said they going to do it but will they actually build a good product finally Asia's biggest crypto investor and a mocha brands is looking to set up a two billion dollar better versed fine animal because current portfolio has more than three hundred and forty finance gaming and social media companies worth over one point five million dollars so includes crypto wallet blockchain gaming better versed D. five

they are men their portfolio is wild

it and I'm gonna try to get interviewed some of the folks here but they're making some big time investment that I think they see the long term you know benefits and the adoption of this yes it's early and and you know they're putting a lot of money and and they're gonna have to be patient but this this is a huge bet there's a lot of companies in their portfolio but I think it's a smart bet and they they are well diversified and ID include gaming and E. sports and so for these things which will drive more crypto adoption B. N. F. T. E.'s blockchain integration and so forth so

did the this smart money the long term macro investors they see what's on the horizon there putting billions into this and I hope you recognize what's happening and you also have to have the macro outlook if you're looking at the hourly weekly daily monthly here you're gonna be disappointed you're going to be depressed but once I learned that guys in that mindset that's when they started making money in crypto

when I got into it I was I was looking at my portfolio every day feels like oh my god is up this way its down this week owner

that was driving me nuts and I will of course lost money because you can't move by emotions you can be watching the charts I got you gotta have a macro outlook and that's where the money is made anyway guys let me know what you think leave your thoughts and comments below hit that thumbs up button sure does BDO and I'll talk to you all